Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing Firms
Purpose: The paper estimates the labor-productivity gains that Turkish manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can expect when they scale up from micro to small and from small to medium size classes.Methodology: Using value-added-per-employee data from TurkStat, we run Monte Carlo s...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanlığı
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Verimlilik Dergisi |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4824058 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849245495826841600 |
|---|---|
| author | Fatih Cemil Özbuğday |
| author_facet | Fatih Cemil Özbuğday |
| author_sort | Fatih Cemil Özbuğday |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Purpose: The paper estimates the labor-productivity gains that Turkish manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can expect when they scale up from micro to small and from small to medium size classes.Methodology: Using value-added-per-employee data from TurkStat, we run Monte Carlo simulations that keep the technological tier constant while varying firm size. Log-normal and gamma shock processes are combined with three coefficients of variation (0.5, 1.0, 2.0) to represent alternative degrees of within-class heterogeneity.Findings: High-technology SMEs realize the highest average gains—around TL 260–370 thousand—especially in the small-to-medium transition. Low-technology firms show modest mean improvements and a rising probability of negative outcomes as heterogeneity increases. Log-normal shocks generate fatter upper tails and more extreme winners, whereas gamma shocks deliver narrower central ranges but still sizable outliers at high dispersion.Originality: This is among the first studies to quantify potential productivity pay-offs from SME scaling in Turkey within a fully stochastic framework. By modeling technology-conditioned heterogeneity with aggregate data, it offers fresh evidence for designing conditional subsidies and other targeted industrial-policy tools. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e3d56a937c824dcf88d82bc1d05dd55d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1013-1388 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanlığı |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Verimlilik Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-e3d56a937c824dcf88d82bc1d05dd55d2025-08-20T03:58:48ZengSanayi ve Teknoloji BakanlığıVerimlilik Dergisi1013-13882025-07-0159358960810.51551/verimlilik.1688156417Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing FirmsFatih Cemil Özbuğday0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5841-4343ANKARA YILDIRIM BEYAZIT ÜNİVERSİTESİPurpose: The paper estimates the labor-productivity gains that Turkish manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can expect when they scale up from micro to small and from small to medium size classes.Methodology: Using value-added-per-employee data from TurkStat, we run Monte Carlo simulations that keep the technological tier constant while varying firm size. Log-normal and gamma shock processes are combined with three coefficients of variation (0.5, 1.0, 2.0) to represent alternative degrees of within-class heterogeneity.Findings: High-technology SMEs realize the highest average gains—around TL 260–370 thousand—especially in the small-to-medium transition. Low-technology firms show modest mean improvements and a rising probability of negative outcomes as heterogeneity increases. Log-normal shocks generate fatter upper tails and more extreme winners, whereas gamma shocks deliver narrower central ranges but still sizable outliers at high dispersion.Originality: This is among the first studies to quantify potential productivity pay-offs from SME scaling in Turkey within a fully stochastic framework. By modeling technology-conditioned heterogeneity with aggregate data, it offers fresh evidence for designing conditional subsidies and other targeted industrial-policy tools.https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4824058smeslabor productivityeconomies of scalemonte carlo simulationtechnology intensitymanufacturing industrykobi̇’leri̇şgücü verimliliğiölçek ekonomilerimonte carlo simülasyonuteknoloji yoğunluğui̇malat sanayi |
| spellingShingle | Fatih Cemil Özbuğday Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing Firms Verimlilik Dergisi smes labor productivity economies of scale monte carlo simulation technology intensity manufacturing industry kobi̇’ler i̇şgücü verimliliği ölçek ekonomileri monte carlo simülasyonu teknoloji yoğunluğu i̇malat sanayi |
| title | Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing Firms |
| title_full | Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing Firms |
| title_fullStr | Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing Firms |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing Firms |
| title_short | Modeling Potential Productivity Gains from SME Growth: A Monte Carlo Simulation for Turkish Manufacturing Firms |
| title_sort | modeling potential productivity gains from sme growth a monte carlo simulation for turkish manufacturing firms |
| topic | smes labor productivity economies of scale monte carlo simulation technology intensity manufacturing industry kobi̇’ler i̇şgücü verimliliği ölçek ekonomileri monte carlo simülasyonu teknoloji yoğunluğu i̇malat sanayi |
| url | https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4824058 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fatihcemilozbugday modelingpotentialproductivitygainsfromsmegrowthamontecarlosimulationforturkishmanufacturingfirms |