The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume

The Greenland Ice Sheet has become an increasingly larger contributor to sea level rise in the past two decades and is projected to continue to lose mass. Climate variability is expected to increase under future warming, but the effect of climate variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume is poor...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mikkel Lauritzen, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Nicholas Rathmann, Aslak Grinsted, Brice Noël, Christine S. Hvidberg
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Cambridge University Press 2023-09-01
Series:Annals of Glaciology
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305523000538/type/journal_article
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1846151501423050752
author Mikkel Lauritzen
Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir
Nicholas Rathmann
Aslak Grinsted
Brice Noël
Christine S. Hvidberg
author_facet Mikkel Lauritzen
Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir
Nicholas Rathmann
Aslak Grinsted
Brice Noël
Christine S. Hvidberg
author_sort Mikkel Lauritzen
collection DOAJ
description The Greenland Ice Sheet has become an increasingly larger contributor to sea level rise in the past two decades and is projected to continue to lose mass. Climate variability is expected to increase under future warming, but the effect of climate variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume is poorly understood and is adding to the uncertainty of the projected mass loss. Here we quantify the influence of inter-annual temperature variability on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet using the PISM model. We construct an ensemble of temperature-forcing fields that accounts for inter-annual variability in temperature using reanalysis data from NOAA-CIRES over the period 1851–2014. We investigate the steady-state and transient response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the simulated steady-state ice-sheet volume decreases by 1.9 ± 0.4 cm of sea level equivalent when forced with a varying temperature forcing compared to a constant temperature forcing, and by 11.5 ± 1.4 cm when the variability is doubled. The northern basins are particularly sensitive with a change in volume of 0.9–1.1%. Our results emphasize the importance of including temperature variability in projections of future mass loss.
format Article
id doaj-art-e2572bac4f4a46c5bf4ff114fef14f9d
institution Kabale University
issn 0260-3055
1727-5644
language English
publishDate 2023-09-01
publisher Cambridge University Press
record_format Article
series Annals of Glaciology
spelling doaj-art-e2572bac4f4a46c5bf4ff114fef14f9d2024-11-27T11:13:48ZengCambridge University PressAnnals of Glaciology0260-30551727-56442023-09-016426827510.1017/aog.2023.53The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volumeMikkel Lauritzen0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5951-9339Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir1Nicholas Rathmann2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7140-0931Aslak Grinsted3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1634-6009Brice Noël4Christine S. Hvidberg5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9665-1339Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkInstitute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, IcelandNiels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkNiels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkDepartment of Geography Laboratoire de Climatologie et Topoclimatologie, University of Liége, Liége, BelgiumNiels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkThe Greenland Ice Sheet has become an increasingly larger contributor to sea level rise in the past two decades and is projected to continue to lose mass. Climate variability is expected to increase under future warming, but the effect of climate variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume is poorly understood and is adding to the uncertainty of the projected mass loss. Here we quantify the influence of inter-annual temperature variability on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet using the PISM model. We construct an ensemble of temperature-forcing fields that accounts for inter-annual variability in temperature using reanalysis data from NOAA-CIRES over the period 1851–2014. We investigate the steady-state and transient response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the simulated steady-state ice-sheet volume decreases by 1.9 ± 0.4 cm of sea level equivalent when forced with a varying temperature forcing compared to a constant temperature forcing, and by 11.5 ± 1.4 cm when the variability is doubled. The northern basins are particularly sensitive with a change in volume of 0.9–1.1%. Our results emphasize the importance of including temperature variability in projections of future mass loss.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305523000538/type/journal_articleclimate changice-sheet mass balanceice-sheet modeling
spellingShingle Mikkel Lauritzen
Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir
Nicholas Rathmann
Aslak Grinsted
Brice Noël
Christine S. Hvidberg
The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume
Annals of Glaciology
climate chang
ice-sheet mass balance
ice-sheet modeling
title The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume
title_full The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume
title_fullStr The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume
title_full_unstemmed The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume
title_short The influence of inter-annual temperature variability on the Greenland Ice Sheet volume
title_sort influence of inter annual temperature variability on the greenland ice sheet volume
topic climate chang
ice-sheet mass balance
ice-sheet modeling
url https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305523000538/type/journal_article
work_keys_str_mv AT mikkellauritzen theinfluenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT guðfinnaaðalgeirsdottir theinfluenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT nicholasrathmann theinfluenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT aslakgrinsted theinfluenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT bricenoel theinfluenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT christineshvidberg theinfluenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT mikkellauritzen influenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT guðfinnaaðalgeirsdottir influenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT nicholasrathmann influenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT aslakgrinsted influenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT bricenoel influenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume
AT christineshvidberg influenceofinterannualtemperaturevariabilityonthegreenlandicesheetvolume