Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022
Abstract On 3 February 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. This study examines the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003193 |
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| author | Tzu‐Wei Fang Adam Kubaryk David Goldstein Zhuxiao Li Tim Fuller‐Rowell George Millward Howard J. Singer Robert Steenburgh Solomon Westerman Erik Babcock |
| author_facet | Tzu‐Wei Fang Adam Kubaryk David Goldstein Zhuxiao Li Tim Fuller‐Rowell George Millward Howard J. Singer Robert Steenburgh Solomon Westerman Erik Babcock |
| author_sort | Tzu‐Wei Fang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract On 3 February 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. This study examines the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Working closely with the Starlink team, the thermospheric densities along the satellite orbits were estimated and the neutral density increase leading to the satellite loss was investigated. Simulation results suggest that during the geomagnetic storm, pre‐launch Monte Carlo analyses performed by the Starlink team using empirical neutral density inputs from NRLMSISE‐00 tended to underestimate the impact relative to predictions from the operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model. The numerical simulation indicated this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm was sufficient to create 50%–125% density enhancement at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. With the increasing solar activity of Solar Cycle 25, satellites in low‐Earth orbit are expected to experience an increasing number of thermospheric expansion events. Currently, no alerts and warnings issued by SWPC are focused on satellite users concerned with atmospheric drag and related applications. Thus, during geomagnetic storms, it is crucial to establish suitable alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions to provide users guidance for preventing satellite losses due to drag and to aid in collision avoidance calculations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e19a42759d8b4bd480efb72816304fea |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-e19a42759d8b4bd480efb72816304fea2025-01-14T16:35:33ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902022-11-012011n/an/a10.1029/2022SW003193Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022Tzu‐Wei Fang0Adam Kubaryk1David Goldstein2Zhuxiao Li3Tim Fuller‐Rowell4George Millward5Howard J. Singer6Robert Steenburgh7Solomon Westerman8Erik Babcock9NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder CO USANOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder CO USASpaceX Starlink Hawthorne CA USANOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder CO USANOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder CO USANOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder CO USANOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder CO USANOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder CO USASpaceX Starlink Hawthorne CA USASpaceX Starlink Hawthorne CA USAAbstract On 3 February 2022, SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites due to enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm. This study examines the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Working closely with the Starlink team, the thermospheric densities along the satellite orbits were estimated and the neutral density increase leading to the satellite loss was investigated. Simulation results suggest that during the geomagnetic storm, pre‐launch Monte Carlo analyses performed by the Starlink team using empirical neutral density inputs from NRLMSISE‐00 tended to underestimate the impact relative to predictions from the operational coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics physics‐based model. The numerical simulation indicated this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm was sufficient to create 50%–125% density enhancement at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. With the increasing solar activity of Solar Cycle 25, satellites in low‐Earth orbit are expected to experience an increasing number of thermospheric expansion events. Currently, no alerts and warnings issued by SWPC are focused on satellite users concerned with atmospheric drag and related applications. Thus, during geomagnetic storms, it is crucial to establish suitable alerts and warnings based on neutral density predictions to provide users guidance for preventing satellite losses due to drag and to aid in collision avoidance calculations.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003193space weather forecastthermosphere expansion and satellite draggeomagnetic storms |
| spellingShingle | Tzu‐Wei Fang Adam Kubaryk David Goldstein Zhuxiao Li Tim Fuller‐Rowell George Millward Howard J. Singer Robert Steenburgh Solomon Westerman Erik Babcock Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022 Space Weather space weather forecast thermosphere expansion and satellite drag geomagnetic storms |
| title | Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022 |
| title_full | Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022 |
| title_fullStr | Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022 |
| title_short | Space Weather Environment During the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022 |
| title_sort | space weather environment during the spacex starlink satellite loss in february 2022 |
| topic | space weather forecast thermosphere expansion and satellite drag geomagnetic storms |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003193 |
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