The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF)
Abstract With new satellite constellations being launched into low Earth orbit, the growing use of medium Earth orbit for radio‐navigation and timing signals, slot region orbits for telecommunications and the introduction of electric propulsion to reach geostationary orbit, there is a growing need t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002823 |
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| _version_ | 1841536445556195328 |
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| author | Richard B. Horne Sarah A. Glauert Peter Kirsch Daniel Heynderickx Suzy Bingham Peter Thorn Babara‐Ann Curran David Pitchford Ewan Haggarty David Wade Ralf Keil |
| author_facet | Richard B. Horne Sarah A. Glauert Peter Kirsch Daniel Heynderickx Suzy Bingham Peter Thorn Babara‐Ann Curran David Pitchford Ewan Haggarty David Wade Ralf Keil |
| author_sort | Richard B. Horne |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract With new satellite constellations being launched into low Earth orbit, the growing use of medium Earth orbit for radio‐navigation and timing signals, slot region orbits for telecommunications and the introduction of electric propulsion to reach geostationary orbit, there is a growing need to develop services to protect satellites from space weather. Here we highlight two recent events in relation to satellite operations. We summarize 10 user needs that arose out of meetings with satellite operators, designers, underwriters and space agency staff. We present the satellite risk prediction and radiation forecast (SaRIF) system which is designed to meet most of these needs. The system uses real‐time data as input to the BAS radiation belt model (BAS‐RBM) to solve the Fokker Planck equation and provides a forecast of the electron flux throughout the outer radiation belt with 1‐hr resolution up to 24 hr ahead. The electron flux is used to calculate charging currents, and is combined with GOES near real time proton fluxes to calculate dose rate and total ionizing dose behind set levels of shielding for satellites in Medium Earth orbit, Geostationary orbit and slot region orbits. The results are compared against design standards and presented as risk indicators to forecast the risk of damage. The system works automatically and is updated every hour. We also present data and a best reconstruction of the radiation environment which are held in a searchable archive for satellite anomaly resolution. The SaRIF system is available via the European Space Agency space weather web portal. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-df99d5d146ac4d66ba2d9a35a708a32a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-df99d5d146ac4d66ba2d9a35a708a32a2025-01-14T16:27:22ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902021-12-011912n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002823The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF)Richard B. Horne0Sarah A. Glauert1Peter Kirsch2Daniel Heynderickx3Suzy Bingham4Peter Thorn5Babara‐Ann Curran6David Pitchford7Ewan Haggarty8David Wade9Ralf Keil10British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UKBritish Antarctic Survey Cambridge UKBritish Antarctic Survey Cambridge UKDH Consultancy BVBA Leuven BelgiumMeteorological Office Exeter UKMeteorological Office Exeter UKMeteorological Office Exeter UKSES Betzdorf LuxembourgAirbus Defence and Space Stevenage UKAtrium Space Insurance Consortium London UKRhea Systems GmbH European Space Agency Darmstadt GermanyAbstract With new satellite constellations being launched into low Earth orbit, the growing use of medium Earth orbit for radio‐navigation and timing signals, slot region orbits for telecommunications and the introduction of electric propulsion to reach geostationary orbit, there is a growing need to develop services to protect satellites from space weather. Here we highlight two recent events in relation to satellite operations. We summarize 10 user needs that arose out of meetings with satellite operators, designers, underwriters and space agency staff. We present the satellite risk prediction and radiation forecast (SaRIF) system which is designed to meet most of these needs. The system uses real‐time data as input to the BAS radiation belt model (BAS‐RBM) to solve the Fokker Planck equation and provides a forecast of the electron flux throughout the outer radiation belt with 1‐hr resolution up to 24 hr ahead. The electron flux is used to calculate charging currents, and is combined with GOES near real time proton fluxes to calculate dose rate and total ionizing dose behind set levels of shielding for satellites in Medium Earth orbit, Geostationary orbit and slot region orbits. The results are compared against design standards and presented as risk indicators to forecast the risk of damage. The system works automatically and is updated every hour. We also present data and a best reconstruction of the radiation environment which are held in a searchable archive for satellite anomaly resolution. The SaRIF system is available via the European Space Agency space weather web portal.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002823radiation beltsforecastingsatellite anomalies |
| spellingShingle | Richard B. Horne Sarah A. Glauert Peter Kirsch Daniel Heynderickx Suzy Bingham Peter Thorn Babara‐Ann Curran David Pitchford Ewan Haggarty David Wade Ralf Keil The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF) Space Weather radiation belts forecasting satellite anomalies |
| title | The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF) |
| title_full | The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF) |
| title_fullStr | The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF) |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF) |
| title_short | The Satellite Risk Prediction and Radiation Forecast System (SaRIF) |
| title_sort | satellite risk prediction and radiation forecast system sarif |
| topic | radiation belts forecasting satellite anomalies |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002823 |
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