Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar Activity
Abstract Since the beginning of the space age, the Sun has been in a multi‐cycle period of elevated activity (secular maximum). This secular maximum is the longest in the last 9300 years. Since the end of solar cycle 21 (SC21), however, the Sun has shown a decline in overall activity, which has rema...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002796 |
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| author | F. Rahmanifard A. P. Jordan W. C. deWet N. A. Schwadron J. K. Wilson M. J. Owens H. E. Spence P. Riley |
| author_facet | F. Rahmanifard A. P. Jordan W. C. deWet N. A. Schwadron J. K. Wilson M. J. Owens H. E. Spence P. Riley |
| author_sort | F. Rahmanifard |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Since the beginning of the space age, the Sun has been in a multi‐cycle period of elevated activity (secular maximum). This secular maximum is the longest in the last 9300 years. Since the end of solar cycle 21 (SC21), however, the Sun has shown a decline in overall activity, which has remarkably increased the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Here, we investigate the correlation between the modulation of GCRs, the heliospheric magnetic field, and solar wind speed for the last 24 solar cycles to find trends that can potentially be used to predict future solar activity. Specifically, we develop a tool for predicting future magnetic field intensity, based on the hysteresis in the GCR variation, during the last phases of the current cycle. This method estimates that SC25 will be as weak as or weaker than SC24. This would mean that the Sun has likely entered a secular minimum, which, according to historical records, should last for another two cycles (SC25 and SC26). |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-df1567ee0f33408ab45eb314a8ae3abe |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-df1567ee0f33408ab45eb314a8ae3abe2025-01-14T16:30:59ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902022-02-01202n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002796Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar ActivityF. Rahmanifard0A. P. Jordan1W. C. deWet2N. A. Schwadron3J. K. Wilson4M. J. Owens5H. E. Spence6P. Riley7Space Science Center University of New Hampshire Durham NH USASpace Science Center University of New Hampshire Durham NH USASpace Science Center University of New Hampshire Durham NH USASpace Science Center University of New Hampshire Durham NH USASpace Science Center University of New Hampshire Durham NH USADepartment of Meteorology Space and Atmospheric Electricity Group University of Reading Reading UKSpace Science Center University of New Hampshire Durham NH USAPredictive Science San Diego CA USAAbstract Since the beginning of the space age, the Sun has been in a multi‐cycle period of elevated activity (secular maximum). This secular maximum is the longest in the last 9300 years. Since the end of solar cycle 21 (SC21), however, the Sun has shown a decline in overall activity, which has remarkably increased the fluxes of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Here, we investigate the correlation between the modulation of GCRs, the heliospheric magnetic field, and solar wind speed for the last 24 solar cycles to find trends that can potentially be used to predict future solar activity. Specifically, we develop a tool for predicting future magnetic field intensity, based on the hysteresis in the GCR variation, during the last phases of the current cycle. This method estimates that SC25 will be as weak as or weaker than SC24. This would mean that the Sun has likely entered a secular minimum, which, according to historical records, should last for another two cycles (SC25 and SC26).https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002796solar cyclesspace weathercycle 25secular minimumGCRssolar activity |
| spellingShingle | F. Rahmanifard A. P. Jordan W. C. deWet N. A. Schwadron J. K. Wilson M. J. Owens H. E. Spence P. Riley Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar Activity Space Weather solar cycles space weather cycle 25 secular minimum GCRs solar activity |
| title | Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar Activity |
| title_full | Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar Activity |
| title_fullStr | Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar Activity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar Activity |
| title_short | Evidence From Galactic Cosmic Rays That the Sun Has Likely Entered a Secular Minimum in Solar Activity |
| title_sort | evidence from galactic cosmic rays that the sun has likely entered a secular minimum in solar activity |
| topic | solar cycles space weather cycle 25 secular minimum GCRs solar activity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002796 |
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