Global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19
Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted the global influenza seasonal patterns due to nonpharmaceutical interventions. This study aims to describe the influenza seasonal characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting COVID-19 NPIs and assess shifts before, during, and after...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971224004478 |
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| _version_ | 1841555787705483264 |
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| author | Xiaowei Chen Honghong Chen Fangfang Tao Yinzi Chen Ying Zhou Jian Cheng Xiling Wang |
| author_facet | Xiaowei Chen Honghong Chen Fangfang Tao Yinzi Chen Ying Zhou Jian Cheng Xiling Wang |
| author_sort | Xiaowei Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted the global influenza seasonal patterns due to nonpharmaceutical interventions. This study aims to describe the influenza seasonal characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting COVID-19 NPIs and assess shifts before, during, and after the pandemic. Methods: We analyzed country-specific weekly influenza data (2011-2024) from WHO FluNet and collected COVID-19 NPI timing from official announcements. The study was divided into pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic phases, estimating epidemic onset, peak week, peak intensity, and duration by climate zones. Results: In temperate countries, peak intensity after the pandemic decreased by 8.4 %, while duration increased by 1.8 weeks, and onset and peak were delayed by 18.5 and 22.8 weeks compared to regular seasonal pattern before the pandemic. Subtropical countries experienced a 17.2 % decrease in peak intensity, a 2.4-week decrease in duration, and delays in onset and peak by 13.5 and 2.3 weeks. Tropical countries had a 10 % decrease in peak intensity, a 3-week reduction in duration, and a 6.6-week delay in onset with no significant change in peak time. Conclusion: Influenza seasonality shifted significantly after the pandemic, with epidemic durations returning to typical patterns but peak intensities remained low. Robust surveillance after an infectious disease pandemic is crucial to inform prevention and control strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-de72170d3f654b8aa2744cb2d0706cdc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-de72170d3f654b8aa2744cb2d0706cdc2025-01-08T04:52:19ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122025-02-01151107372Global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19Xiaowei Chen0Honghong Chen1Fangfang Tao2Yinzi Chen3Ying Zhou4Jian Cheng5Xiling Wang6School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, ChinaMinhang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaInstitute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaInstitute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, ChinaShanghai Institute of Aviation Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai, China; Corresponding author: Xiling Wang; School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Xuhui District, Shanghai, 200032, China.Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted the global influenza seasonal patterns due to nonpharmaceutical interventions. This study aims to describe the influenza seasonal characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting COVID-19 NPIs and assess shifts before, during, and after the pandemic. Methods: We analyzed country-specific weekly influenza data (2011-2024) from WHO FluNet and collected COVID-19 NPI timing from official announcements. The study was divided into pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic phases, estimating epidemic onset, peak week, peak intensity, and duration by climate zones. Results: In temperate countries, peak intensity after the pandemic decreased by 8.4 %, while duration increased by 1.8 weeks, and onset and peak were delayed by 18.5 and 22.8 weeks compared to regular seasonal pattern before the pandemic. Subtropical countries experienced a 17.2 % decrease in peak intensity, a 2.4-week decrease in duration, and delays in onset and peak by 13.5 and 2.3 weeks. Tropical countries had a 10 % decrease in peak intensity, a 3-week reduction in duration, and a 6.6-week delay in onset with no significant change in peak time. Conclusion: Influenza seasonality shifted significantly after the pandemic, with epidemic durations returning to typical patterns but peak intensities remained low. Robust surveillance after an infectious disease pandemic is crucial to inform prevention and control strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971224004478InfluenzaSeasonalityCOVID-19Nonpharmaceutical interventions |
| spellingShingle | Xiaowei Chen Honghong Chen Fangfang Tao Yinzi Chen Ying Zhou Jian Cheng Xiling Wang Global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 International Journal of Infectious Diseases Influenza Seasonality COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical interventions |
| title | Global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 |
| title_full | Global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 |
| title_fullStr | Global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 |
| title_short | Global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 |
| title_sort | global analysis of influenza epidemic characteristics in the first two seasons after lifting the nonpharmaceutical interventions for covid 19 |
| topic | Influenza Seasonality COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical interventions |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971224004478 |
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