Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling
Abstract Background Infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria are increasingly frequent, burdening healthcare systems worldwide. As pathogens acquire resistance to all known antibiotics – i.e., become pan-resistant – treatment of the associated infections will become exceedingly difficult....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Communications Medicine |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-024-00693-7 |
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| _version_ | 1846101007508963328 |
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| author | Benjamin J. Koch Daniel E. Park Bruce A. Hungate Cindy M. Liu James R. Johnson Lance B. Price |
| author_facet | Benjamin J. Koch Daniel E. Park Bruce A. Hungate Cindy M. Liu James R. Johnson Lance B. Price |
| author_sort | Benjamin J. Koch |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria are increasingly frequent, burdening healthcare systems worldwide. As pathogens acquire resistance to all known antibiotics – i.e., become pan-resistant – treatment of the associated infections will become exceedingly difficult. We hypothesized that the emergence of pan-resistant bacterial pathogens will result in a sharp increase in human mortality. Methods We tested this hypothesis by modeling the impact of a single hypothetical pan-resistant Escherichia coli strain on sepsis deaths in the United States. We used long-term data on sepsis incidence, mortality rates, strain dynamics, and treatment outcomes to parameterize a set of models encompassing a range of plausible future scenarios. All models accounted for historical and projected temporal changes in population size and age distribution. Results The models suggest that sepsis deaths could increase 18- to 46-fold within 5 years of the emergence of a single pan-resistant E. coli strain. This large and rapid change contrasts sharply with the current expectation of gradual change under continuing multidrug-resistance. Conclusions Failure to prevent the emergence of pan-resistance would have dire consequences for public health. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dcf33199d11f4d11affe796edb22cd0e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2730-664X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-dcf33199d11f4d11affe796edb22cd0e2024-12-29T12:44:57ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Medicine2730-664X2024-12-01411710.1038/s43856-024-00693-7Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modelingBenjamin J. Koch0Daniel E. Park1Bruce A. Hungate2Cindy M. Liu3James R. Johnson4Lance B. Price5Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona UniversityDepartment of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington UniversityCenter for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona UniversityDepartment of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington UniversityMinneapolis Veterans Affairs Health Care SystemDepartment of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington UniversityAbstract Background Infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria are increasingly frequent, burdening healthcare systems worldwide. As pathogens acquire resistance to all known antibiotics – i.e., become pan-resistant – treatment of the associated infections will become exceedingly difficult. We hypothesized that the emergence of pan-resistant bacterial pathogens will result in a sharp increase in human mortality. Methods We tested this hypothesis by modeling the impact of a single hypothetical pan-resistant Escherichia coli strain on sepsis deaths in the United States. We used long-term data on sepsis incidence, mortality rates, strain dynamics, and treatment outcomes to parameterize a set of models encompassing a range of plausible future scenarios. All models accounted for historical and projected temporal changes in population size and age distribution. Results The models suggest that sepsis deaths could increase 18- to 46-fold within 5 years of the emergence of a single pan-resistant E. coli strain. This large and rapid change contrasts sharply with the current expectation of gradual change under continuing multidrug-resistance. Conclusions Failure to prevent the emergence of pan-resistance would have dire consequences for public health.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-024-00693-7 |
| spellingShingle | Benjamin J. Koch Daniel E. Park Bruce A. Hungate Cindy M. Liu James R. Johnson Lance B. Price Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling Communications Medicine |
| title | Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling |
| title_full | Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling |
| title_fullStr | Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling |
| title_short | Predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug-resistant E. coli through modeling |
| title_sort | predicting sepsis mortality into an era of pandrug resistant e coli through modeling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-024-00693-7 |
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