Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Societal Impact Statement Forest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land...

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Main Authors: J. Aaron Hogan, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Eileen H. Helmer, Matthew E. Craig, Evan Fricke, Viola Henrich, Steven A. Kannenberg, Charles D. Koven, Kees Klein Goldewjik, David M. Lapola, Yue Li, Yadvinder Malhi, John Quinn, Stephanie Roe, Cesar Terrer, Emilio Vilanova, Anthony P. Walker, Kai Zhu, Erle C. Ellis
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-07-01
Series:Plants, People, Planet
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10609
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author J. Aaron Hogan
Jeremy W. Lichstein
Eileen H. Helmer
Matthew E. Craig
Evan Fricke
Viola Henrich
Steven A. Kannenberg
Charles D. Koven
Kees Klein Goldewjik
David M. Lapola
Yue Li
Yadvinder Malhi
John Quinn
Stephanie Roe
Cesar Terrer
Emilio Vilanova
Anthony P. Walker
Kai Zhu
Erle C. Ellis
author_facet J. Aaron Hogan
Jeremy W. Lichstein
Eileen H. Helmer
Matthew E. Craig
Evan Fricke
Viola Henrich
Steven A. Kannenberg
Charles D. Koven
Kees Klein Goldewjik
David M. Lapola
Yue Li
Yadvinder Malhi
John Quinn
Stephanie Roe
Cesar Terrer
Emilio Vilanova
Anthony P. Walker
Kai Zhu
Erle C. Ellis
author_sort J. Aaron Hogan
collection DOAJ
description Societal Impact Statement Forest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable. Summary Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900‐present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land‐use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.
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spelling doaj-art-db7e2e1c03054d5599a59f30bc97cae22025-08-20T03:45:41ZengWileyPlants, People, Planet2572-26112025-07-01741027104210.1002/ppp3.10609Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global changeJ. Aaron Hogan0Jeremy W. Lichstein1Eileen H. Helmer2Matthew E. Craig3Evan Fricke4Viola Henrich5Steven A. Kannenberg6Charles D. Koven7Kees Klein Goldewjik8David M. Lapola9Yue Li10Yadvinder Malhi11John Quinn12Stephanie Roe13Cesar Terrer14Emilio Vilanova15Anthony P. Walker16Kai Zhu17Erle C. Ellis18USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry San Juan PR USADepartment of Biology University of Florida Gainesville FL USAUSDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry San Juan PR USAEnvironmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Lab Oak Ridge TN USACivil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USAFaculty of Environment, Science, and Economy University of Exeter Exeter UKDepartment of Biology West Virginia University Morgantown WV USALawrence Berkeley National Lab Berkeley CA USACopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University Utrecht The NetherlandsCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture University of Campinas Campinas São Paulo BrazilDepartment of Geography University of California Los Angeles CA USAEnvironmental Change Institute, School of Geography and Environment Oxford University Oxford UKDepartment of Biology Furman University Greeneville South Carolina USAWorld Wildlife Fund Washington DC USACivil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USAVERRA Washington DC USAEnvironmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Lab Oak Ridge TN USASchool for Environment and Sustainability University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADepartment of Geography and Environmental Systems University of Maryland Baltimore County Baltimore MD USASocietal Impact Statement Forest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable. Summary Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900‐present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land‐use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10609carbon cycle feedbacksCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6Global Forest Carbon Database (ForC)human‐influenced foreststropical vs. temperate and boreal
spellingShingle J. Aaron Hogan
Jeremy W. Lichstein
Eileen H. Helmer
Matthew E. Craig
Evan Fricke
Viola Henrich
Steven A. Kannenberg
Charles D. Koven
Kees Klein Goldewjik
David M. Lapola
Yue Li
Yadvinder Malhi
John Quinn
Stephanie Roe
Cesar Terrer
Emilio Vilanova
Anthony P. Walker
Kai Zhu
Erle C. Ellis
Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
Plants, People, Planet
carbon cycle feedbacks
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
Global Forest Carbon Database (ForC)
human‐influenced forests
tropical vs. temperate and boreal
title Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
title_full Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
title_fullStr Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
title_full_unstemmed Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
title_short Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
title_sort anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
topic carbon cycle feedbacks
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
Global Forest Carbon Database (ForC)
human‐influenced forests
tropical vs. temperate and boreal
url https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10609
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