The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern Italy

Abstract Background Recent studies based on hospital and outpatient clinic databases have reported a decline in cancer diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic, an observation that has been mainly attributed to halted screenings. Methods We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on cancer incidence in th...

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Main Authors: Valentina Trimarco, Raffaele Izzo, Daniela Pacella, Maria V. Manzi, Fahimeh Varzideh, Maria Lembo, Paola Gallo, Roberto Piccinocchi, Carmine Morisco, Francesco Rozza, Gaetano Piccinocchi, Michelangelo Mercogliano, Stanislovas S. Jankauskas, Giovanni Esposito, Raffaele Palladino, Gaetano Santulli, Bruno Trimarco
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2025-07-01
Series:BMC Medicine
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-04237-1
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author Valentina Trimarco
Raffaele Izzo
Daniela Pacella
Maria V. Manzi
Fahimeh Varzideh
Maria Lembo
Paola Gallo
Roberto Piccinocchi
Carmine Morisco
Francesco Rozza
Gaetano Piccinocchi
Michelangelo Mercogliano
Stanislovas S. Jankauskas
Giovanni Esposito
Raffaele Palladino
Gaetano Santulli
Bruno Trimarco
author_facet Valentina Trimarco
Raffaele Izzo
Daniela Pacella
Maria V. Manzi
Fahimeh Varzideh
Maria Lembo
Paola Gallo
Roberto Piccinocchi
Carmine Morisco
Francesco Rozza
Gaetano Piccinocchi
Michelangelo Mercogliano
Stanislovas S. Jankauskas
Giovanni Esposito
Raffaele Palladino
Gaetano Santulli
Bruno Trimarco
author_sort Valentina Trimarco
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background Recent studies based on hospital and outpatient clinic databases have reported a decline in cancer diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic, an observation that has been mainly attributed to halted screenings. Methods We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on cancer incidence in the Campania Region (Italy) among adults followed by their primary care physicians over a 6-year period (2017–2022). Using a single-cohort design, we employed interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to compare cancer incidence rates during the 3 years preceding the pandemic (2017–2019) with those during the three pandemic years (2020–2022). Results We analyzed data from 212,656 individuals and found that the incidence of new cancer diagnoses rose from 14.3 to 23.1 per 1000 person-years when comparing the pre-pandemic to the COVID-19 period. ITS analysis revealed a stable trend in cancer diagnoses before the pandemic, followed by a marked increase of ~8 new cases per month beginning in January 2020, with a peak observed in August 2021. Notably, diagnoses of brain and skin cancers increased by 300% in 2022 compared to 2017. Conclusions Taken together, these findings highlight a concerning increase in cancer diagnoses in the Campania Region during the COVID-19 pandemic, contrasting with earlier reports that pointed to a decline in cases, mostly attributed to interrupted screening services. Several indirect factors might contribute to this trend, including heightened psychosocial stress and shifts in lifestyle behaviors, as well as profound disruptions in access to and continuity of healthcare delivery.
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spelling doaj-art-d9fcdd3b74e04dcbbd8be3d8b1c8f0ad2025-08-20T04:01:41ZengBMCBMC Medicine1741-70152025-07-0123111110.1186/s12916-025-04237-1The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern ItalyValentina Trimarco0Raffaele Izzo1Daniela Pacella2Maria V. Manzi3Fahimeh Varzideh4Maria Lembo5Paola Gallo6Roberto Piccinocchi7Carmine Morisco8Francesco Rozza9Gaetano Piccinocchi10Michelangelo Mercogliano11Stanislovas S. Jankauskas12Giovanni Esposito13Raffaele Palladino14Gaetano Santulli15Bruno Trimarco16Department of Neuroscience, Reproductive Sciences, and Dentistry, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Public Health, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Medicine, Fleischer Institute for Diabetes and Metabolism (FIDAM) Wilf Family Cardiovascular Research Institute, Einstein Institute for Aging Research, Albert Einstein College of MedicineDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityLuigi Vanvitelli HospitalDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityCOMEGEN Primary Care Physician Cooperative, Italian Society of General Medicine (SIMG)Department of Public Health, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Medicine, Fleischer Institute for Diabetes and Metabolism (FIDAM) Wilf Family Cardiovascular Research Institute, Einstein Institute for Aging Research, Albert Einstein College of MedicineDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Public Health, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityDepartment of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, Federico II UniversityAbstract Background Recent studies based on hospital and outpatient clinic databases have reported a decline in cancer diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic, an observation that has been mainly attributed to halted screenings. Methods We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on cancer incidence in the Campania Region (Italy) among adults followed by their primary care physicians over a 6-year period (2017–2022). Using a single-cohort design, we employed interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to compare cancer incidence rates during the 3 years preceding the pandemic (2017–2019) with those during the three pandemic years (2020–2022). Results We analyzed data from 212,656 individuals and found that the incidence of new cancer diagnoses rose from 14.3 to 23.1 per 1000 person-years when comparing the pre-pandemic to the COVID-19 period. ITS analysis revealed a stable trend in cancer diagnoses before the pandemic, followed by a marked increase of ~8 new cases per month beginning in January 2020, with a peak observed in August 2021. Notably, diagnoses of brain and skin cancers increased by 300% in 2022 compared to 2017. Conclusions Taken together, these findings highlight a concerning increase in cancer diagnoses in the Campania Region during the COVID-19 pandemic, contrasting with earlier reports that pointed to a decline in cases, mostly attributed to interrupted screening services. Several indirect factors might contribute to this trend, including heightened psychosocial stress and shifts in lifestyle behaviors, as well as profound disruptions in access to and continuity of healthcare delivery.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-04237-1Clinical researchCOVID-19EpidemiologyInfectious disordersOncologyPandemic
spellingShingle Valentina Trimarco
Raffaele Izzo
Daniela Pacella
Maria V. Manzi
Fahimeh Varzideh
Maria Lembo
Paola Gallo
Roberto Piccinocchi
Carmine Morisco
Francesco Rozza
Gaetano Piccinocchi
Michelangelo Mercogliano
Stanislovas S. Jankauskas
Giovanni Esposito
Raffaele Palladino
Gaetano Santulli
Bruno Trimarco
The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern Italy
BMC Medicine
Clinical research
COVID-19
Epidemiology
Infectious disorders
Oncology
Pandemic
title The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern Italy
title_full The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern Italy
title_fullStr The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern Italy
title_full_unstemmed The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern Italy
title_short The COVID-19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers: evidence from a large cohort study in Southern Italy
title_sort covid 19 pandemic increased the incidence of newly diagnosed cancers evidence from a large cohort study in southern italy
topic Clinical research
COVID-19
Epidemiology
Infectious disorders
Oncology
Pandemic
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-025-04237-1
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