Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar

Every country has a currency as a medium of exchange and the movement of its exchange rate can affect the economy of the country. In Indonesia, since the freely floating exchange rates system has been applied in August 1997, the value of rupiah currency in the foreign exchange market can change at a...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Ilham Ramadhani, Auli Damayanti, Edi Winarko
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Airlangga 2021-10-01
Series:Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA)
Subjects:
Online Access:https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/CONMATHA/article/view/29802
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1846136572985999360
author Ilham Ramadhani
Auli Damayanti
Edi Winarko
author_facet Ilham Ramadhani
Auli Damayanti
Edi Winarko
author_sort Ilham Ramadhani
collection DOAJ
description Every country has a currency as a medium of exchange and the movement of its exchange rate can affect the economy of the country. In Indonesia, since the freely floating exchange rates system has been applied in August 1997, the value of rupiah currency in the foreign exchange market can change at any time. Considering the massive impacts of exchange rate fluctuation on the economy, then forecasting the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar is important to help Indonesia's economic growth. The aims of this thesis is to predict the estimated exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar in the future by using hybrid artificial neural network extreme learning machine (ELM) method and firefly algorithm (FA). In the training process, ELM-FA hybrid has a role to obtain the best weight and bias. The weight and bias that obtained will be used for forecasting and to know the success rate of the training process, the validation test process is required. Based on the implementation of program and simulation for some parameter values on the exchange rate data from Jan 2015 until Jan 2018, with four input and hidden nodes, and one output node, obtained the smallest MSE of the training is 0.000480513 with MSE of the testing is 0.0000854107. The relatively small MSE value indicates that ELM-FA network is able to recognize the data pattern well and able to predict the test data well.
format Article
id doaj-art-d8a193c153cb4ba1a89ccaaffd7d6525
institution Kabale University
issn 2686-5564
language English
publishDate 2021-10-01
publisher Universitas Airlangga
record_format Article
series Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA)
spelling doaj-art-d8a193c153cb4ba1a89ccaaffd7d65252024-12-09T03:30:24ZengUniversitas AirlanggaContemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA)2686-55642021-10-013211212910.20473/conmatha.v3i2.2980224390Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap DolarIlham Ramadhani0Auli Damayanti1Edi Winarko2Universitas AirlanggaUniversitas AirlanggaUniversitas AirlanggaEvery country has a currency as a medium of exchange and the movement of its exchange rate can affect the economy of the country. In Indonesia, since the freely floating exchange rates system has been applied in August 1997, the value of rupiah currency in the foreign exchange market can change at any time. Considering the massive impacts of exchange rate fluctuation on the economy, then forecasting the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar is important to help Indonesia's economic growth. The aims of this thesis is to predict the estimated exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar in the future by using hybrid artificial neural network extreme learning machine (ELM) method and firefly algorithm (FA). In the training process, ELM-FA hybrid has a role to obtain the best weight and bias. The weight and bias that obtained will be used for forecasting and to know the success rate of the training process, the validation test process is required. Based on the implementation of program and simulation for some parameter values on the exchange rate data from Jan 2015 until Jan 2018, with four input and hidden nodes, and one output node, obtained the smallest MSE of the training is 0.000480513 with MSE of the testing is 0.0000854107. The relatively small MSE value indicates that ELM-FA network is able to recognize the data pattern well and able to predict the test data well.https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/CONMATHA/article/view/29802extreme learning machinefirefly algorithmforecastingrupiah exchange rate
spellingShingle Ilham Ramadhani
Auli Damayanti
Edi Winarko
Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA)
extreme learning machine
firefly algorithm
forecasting
rupiah exchange rate
title Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar
title_full Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar
title_fullStr Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar
title_full_unstemmed Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar
title_short Hybrid Extreme Learning Machine dan Firefly Algorithm untuk Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar
title_sort hybrid extreme learning machine dan firefly algorithm untuk meramalkan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar
topic extreme learning machine
firefly algorithm
forecasting
rupiah exchange rate
url https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/CONMATHA/article/view/29802
work_keys_str_mv AT ilhamramadhani hybridextremelearningmachinedanfireflyalgorithmuntukmeramalkannilaitukarrupiahterhadapdolar
AT aulidamayanti hybridextremelearningmachinedanfireflyalgorithmuntukmeramalkannilaitukarrupiahterhadapdolar
AT ediwinarko hybridextremelearningmachinedanfireflyalgorithmuntukmeramalkannilaitukarrupiahterhadapdolar