Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100
Analyzing spatiotemporal patterns of dryness/wetness is important for measures and strategy development for the resulting disasters. This research explores projected dryness/wetness patterns and influence factors in China under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios (SSP245 and SSP58...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2415529 |
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| author | Jing Yang Changxiu Cheng Zheng Wang Ping Liu |
| author_facet | Jing Yang Changxiu Cheng Zheng Wang Ping Liu |
| author_sort | Jing Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Analyzing spatiotemporal patterns of dryness/wetness is important for measures and strategy development for the resulting disasters. This research explores projected dryness/wetness patterns and influence factors in China under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The dryness/wetness is evaluated by a non-parameter Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and the influence is analyzed by the GeoDetector method. The result shows that under SSP245, dryness is more likely to increase in autumn. It is primarily located in North-China, South-China, and Middle-lower Yangtze in summer and autumn and in South-China and Huang-Huai-Hai in other seasons. Wetness is more likely to be enhanced in winter, and simultaneous precipitation has more influence, especially in semiarid regions. Under SSP585, the dryness is enhanced throughout China except in winter, and the wetness is enhanced except in autumn. The enhanced wetness in spring and winter is located in North-China and in summer in Southwest China. Temperature has a greater influence in spring and autumn, and precipitation has a greater influence in winter on dryness. The interaction influence is enhanced in almost all regions and seasons under two scenarios. The results could be useful for land managers to develop strategies and mitigate the effects of climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d849082e14b3484ea551137ba3ffc816 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| spelling | doaj-art-d849082e14b3484ea551137ba3ffc8162024-12-12T18:11:16ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132024-12-0115110.1080/19475705.2024.2415529Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100Jing Yang0Changxiu Cheng1Zheng Wang2Ping Liu3College of Computer Science and Technology, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaCollege of Computer Science and Technology, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, ChinaAnalyzing spatiotemporal patterns of dryness/wetness is important for measures and strategy development for the resulting disasters. This research explores projected dryness/wetness patterns and influence factors in China under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The dryness/wetness is evaluated by a non-parameter Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and the influence is analyzed by the GeoDetector method. The result shows that under SSP245, dryness is more likely to increase in autumn. It is primarily located in North-China, South-China, and Middle-lower Yangtze in summer and autumn and in South-China and Huang-Huai-Hai in other seasons. Wetness is more likely to be enhanced in winter, and simultaneous precipitation has more influence, especially in semiarid regions. Under SSP585, the dryness is enhanced throughout China except in winter, and the wetness is enhanced except in autumn. The enhanced wetness in spring and winter is located in North-China and in summer in Southwest China. Temperature has a greater influence in spring and autumn, and precipitation has a greater influence in winter on dryness. The interaction influence is enhanced in almost all regions and seasons under two scenarios. The results could be useful for land managers to develop strategies and mitigate the effects of climate change.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2415529CMIP6dryness and wetnessinfluence factoragricultural regionsChina |
| spellingShingle | Jing Yang Changxiu Cheng Zheng Wang Ping Liu Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100 Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk CMIP6 dryness and wetness influence factor agricultural regions China |
| title | Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100 |
| title_full | Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100 |
| title_fullStr | Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100 |
| title_short | Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100 |
| title_sort | projected dryness wetness pattern and influence factors in china under the cmip6 scenarios for 2021 2100 |
| topic | CMIP6 dryness and wetness influence factor agricultural regions China |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2415529 |
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