Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100

Analyzing spatiotemporal patterns of dryness/wetness is important for measures and strategy development for the resulting disasters. This research explores projected dryness/wetness patterns and influence factors in China under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios (SSP245 and SSP58...

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Main Authors: Jing Yang, Changxiu Cheng, Zheng Wang, Ping Liu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2024-12-01
Series:Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk
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Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2415529
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author Jing Yang
Changxiu Cheng
Zheng Wang
Ping Liu
author_facet Jing Yang
Changxiu Cheng
Zheng Wang
Ping Liu
author_sort Jing Yang
collection DOAJ
description Analyzing spatiotemporal patterns of dryness/wetness is important for measures and strategy development for the resulting disasters. This research explores projected dryness/wetness patterns and influence factors in China under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The dryness/wetness is evaluated by a non-parameter Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and the influence is analyzed by the GeoDetector method. The result shows that under SSP245, dryness is more likely to increase in autumn. It is primarily located in North-China, South-China, and Middle-lower Yangtze in summer and autumn and in South-China and Huang-Huai-Hai in other seasons. Wetness is more likely to be enhanced in winter, and simultaneous precipitation has more influence, especially in semiarid regions. Under SSP585, the dryness is enhanced throughout China except in winter, and the wetness is enhanced except in autumn. The enhanced wetness in spring and winter is located in North-China and in summer in Southwest China. Temperature has a greater influence in spring and autumn, and precipitation has a greater influence in winter on dryness. The interaction influence is enhanced in almost all regions and seasons under two scenarios. The results could be useful for land managers to develop strategies and mitigate the effects of climate change.
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publishDate 2024-12-01
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series Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk
spelling doaj-art-d849082e14b3484ea551137ba3ffc8162024-12-12T18:11:16ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132024-12-0115110.1080/19475705.2024.2415529Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100Jing Yang0Changxiu Cheng1Zheng Wang2Ping Liu3College of Computer Science and Technology, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaCollege of Computer Science and Technology, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, ChinaAnalyzing spatiotemporal patterns of dryness/wetness is important for measures and strategy development for the resulting disasters. This research explores projected dryness/wetness patterns and influence factors in China under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The dryness/wetness is evaluated by a non-parameter Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and the influence is analyzed by the GeoDetector method. The result shows that under SSP245, dryness is more likely to increase in autumn. It is primarily located in North-China, South-China, and Middle-lower Yangtze in summer and autumn and in South-China and Huang-Huai-Hai in other seasons. Wetness is more likely to be enhanced in winter, and simultaneous precipitation has more influence, especially in semiarid regions. Under SSP585, the dryness is enhanced throughout China except in winter, and the wetness is enhanced except in autumn. The enhanced wetness in spring and winter is located in North-China and in summer in Southwest China. Temperature has a greater influence in spring and autumn, and precipitation has a greater influence in winter on dryness. The interaction influence is enhanced in almost all regions and seasons under two scenarios. The results could be useful for land managers to develop strategies and mitigate the effects of climate change.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2415529CMIP6dryness and wetnessinfluence factoragricultural regionsChina
spellingShingle Jing Yang
Changxiu Cheng
Zheng Wang
Ping Liu
Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100
Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk
CMIP6
dryness and wetness
influence factor
agricultural regions
China
title Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100
title_full Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100
title_fullStr Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100
title_full_unstemmed Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100
title_short Projected dryness/wetness pattern and influence factors in China under the CMIP6 scenarios for 2021–2100
title_sort projected dryness wetness pattern and influence factors in china under the cmip6 scenarios for 2021 2100
topic CMIP6
dryness and wetness
influence factor
agricultural regions
China
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2415529
work_keys_str_mv AT jingyang projecteddrynesswetnesspatternandinfluencefactorsinchinaunderthecmip6scenariosfor20212100
AT changxiucheng projecteddrynesswetnesspatternandinfluencefactorsinchinaunderthecmip6scenariosfor20212100
AT zhengwang projecteddrynesswetnesspatternandinfluencefactorsinchinaunderthecmip6scenariosfor20212100
AT pingliu projecteddrynesswetnesspatternandinfluencefactorsinchinaunderthecmip6scenariosfor20212100