Impact of INSAT‐3D land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended Kalman filter‐based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over India

Abstract The land surface temperature (LT) is a crucial variable that governs the energy and radiation budget of the earth's atmosphere and influences land‐atmosphere interactions. The LT plays a crucial role mainly in the short‐range forecast of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The...

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Main Authors: Abhishek Lodh, Ashish Routray, Devajyoti Dutta, Vivek Singh, John. P. George
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-11-01
Series:Meteorological Applications
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70019
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author Abhishek Lodh
Ashish Routray
Devajyoti Dutta
Vivek Singh
John. P. George
author_facet Abhishek Lodh
Ashish Routray
Devajyoti Dutta
Vivek Singh
John. P. George
author_sort Abhishek Lodh
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The land surface temperature (LT) is a crucial variable that governs the energy and radiation budget of the earth's atmosphere and influences land‐atmosphere interactions. The LT plays a crucial role mainly in the short‐range forecast of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The primary research goal in this research work undertaken is to assess the impact of assimilation of LT data from the Indian satellite (INSAT‐3D) into the NCMRWF global NWP model (NCUM) through a simplified Extended Kalman Filter (sEKF) land data assimilation system (LDAS), particularly important as there are few screen‐level observations over the region. A dedicated stand‐alone pre‐processing system has been designed to prepare LT observations in a compatible format for the land surface assimilation system. The approach for LT data assimilation from the INSAT‐3D satellite reduces the uncertainty associated with the initial state of LT analysis while simultaneously improving the accuracy of forecasts of near surface atmospheric variables. An observing system experiment (OSE) was carried out during both the summer (May) and winter (February) months by assimilating the INSAT‐3D LT data in a coupled land‐atmosphere analysis‐forecast system. The results obtained from the OSE demonstrate that the use of INSAT‐3D LT data improves the forecast skill of both maximum and minimum temperature over India, particularly in areas characterized by higher LT variability. The improvement is pronounced in forecasts of maximum (minimum) temperature during “Boreal” summer (“Boreal” winter) season. The verification scores also indicate that the incorporation of INSAT LT data substantially improves the NCUM model's forecast performance. By assimilating LT, the mean error of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts in India was decreased, accompanied by enhanced forecast accuracy within a time frame of approximately 24 h. The scores for the verification measures, specifically the Probability of Detection (POD), demonstrate a ~15% improvement in both the forecasts for maximum and minimum temperatures. This improves the temperature prediction as well as the ability to forecast intense weather episodes like cold spells and heat waves.
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spelling doaj-art-d7c4ffe71e054836a5d40fbbd6c25e8a2024-12-25T23:36:34ZengWileyMeteorological Applications1350-48271469-80802024-11-01316n/an/a10.1002/met.70019Impact of INSAT‐3D land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended Kalman filter‐based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over IndiaAbhishek Lodh0Ashish Routray1Devajyoti Dutta2Vivek Singh3John. P. George4National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) Noida IndiaNational Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) Noida IndiaNational Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) Noida IndiaIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (New Delhi Branch) Ministry of Earth Sciences New Delhi IndiaNational Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) Noida IndiaAbstract The land surface temperature (LT) is a crucial variable that governs the energy and radiation budget of the earth's atmosphere and influences land‐atmosphere interactions. The LT plays a crucial role mainly in the short‐range forecast of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The primary research goal in this research work undertaken is to assess the impact of assimilation of LT data from the Indian satellite (INSAT‐3D) into the NCMRWF global NWP model (NCUM) through a simplified Extended Kalman Filter (sEKF) land data assimilation system (LDAS), particularly important as there are few screen‐level observations over the region. A dedicated stand‐alone pre‐processing system has been designed to prepare LT observations in a compatible format for the land surface assimilation system. The approach for LT data assimilation from the INSAT‐3D satellite reduces the uncertainty associated with the initial state of LT analysis while simultaneously improving the accuracy of forecasts of near surface atmospheric variables. An observing system experiment (OSE) was carried out during both the summer (May) and winter (February) months by assimilating the INSAT‐3D LT data in a coupled land‐atmosphere analysis‐forecast system. The results obtained from the OSE demonstrate that the use of INSAT‐3D LT data improves the forecast skill of both maximum and minimum temperature over India, particularly in areas characterized by higher LT variability. The improvement is pronounced in forecasts of maximum (minimum) temperature during “Boreal” summer (“Boreal” winter) season. The verification scores also indicate that the incorporation of INSAT LT data substantially improves the NCUM model's forecast performance. By assimilating LT, the mean error of maximum and minimum temperature forecasts in India was decreased, accompanied by enhanced forecast accuracy within a time frame of approximately 24 h. The scores for the verification measures, specifically the Probability of Detection (POD), demonstrate a ~15% improvement in both the forecasts for maximum and minimum temperatures. This improves the temperature prediction as well as the ability to forecast intense weather episodes like cold spells and heat waves.https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70019INSAT‐3Dland surface temperatureland‐atmosphere couplingobserving system experimentsimplified extended Kalman filter
spellingShingle Abhishek Lodh
Ashish Routray
Devajyoti Dutta
Vivek Singh
John. P. George
Impact of INSAT‐3D land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended Kalman filter‐based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over India
Meteorological Applications
INSAT‐3D
land surface temperature
land‐atmosphere coupling
observing system experiment
simplified extended Kalman filter
title Impact of INSAT‐3D land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended Kalman filter‐based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over India
title_full Impact of INSAT‐3D land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended Kalman filter‐based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over India
title_fullStr Impact of INSAT‐3D land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended Kalman filter‐based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over India
title_full_unstemmed Impact of INSAT‐3D land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended Kalman filter‐based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over India
title_short Impact of INSAT‐3D land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended Kalman filter‐based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over India
title_sort impact of insat 3d land surface temperature assimilation via simplified extended kalman filter based land data assimilation system on forecasting of surface fields over india
topic INSAT‐3D
land surface temperature
land‐atmosphere coupling
observing system experiment
simplified extended Kalman filter
url https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70019
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