Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide

Carbon emission intensity (CEI) functions as a pivotal metric for evaluating carbon efficiency, thereby playing a critical role in the promotion of sustainable development and the mitigation of climate change. The present study investigates CEI dynamics in 210 countries from 2000 to 2023 using the M...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Xu Pengfei, Chen Xiaotong, Chen Jingling
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-09-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25009884
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849225363769524224
author Xu Pengfei
Chen Xiaotong
Chen Jingling
author_facet Xu Pengfei
Chen Xiaotong
Chen Jingling
author_sort Xu Pengfei
collection DOAJ
description Carbon emission intensity (CEI) functions as a pivotal metric for evaluating carbon efficiency, thereby playing a critical role in the promotion of sustainable development and the mitigation of climate change. The present study investigates CEI dynamics in 210 countries from 2000 to 2023 using the Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen median analysis, and Hurst index, complemented by machine learning to decode driving mechanisms. The findings indicate a substantial global escalation in carbon emissions, amounting to over 39.6 % during the past two decades, concomitant with a 7 % augmentation in CEI. The analysis also underscores considerable variations in CEI trends among countries. A salient finding is that over 92 % of developed nations have witnessed a decline in CEI, while more than 52 % of less developed countries persist in experiencing increases. Moreover, factors such as population density, urban–rural population dynamics, and urban land expansion are of greater significance at the global level. Furthermore, developed countries demonstrate heightened sensitivity to factors such as final consumption expenditure and urban–rural population dynamics. In contrast, the CEI of emerging economies is more influenced by indicators related to technological innovation.
format Article
id doaj-art-d5b1d827d20e42f1b2c239ca42d71c7c
institution Kabale University
issn 1470-160X
language English
publishDate 2025-09-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series Ecological Indicators
spelling doaj-art-d5b1d827d20e42f1b2c239ca42d71c7c2025-08-25T04:14:09ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-09-0117811405610.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114056Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwideXu Pengfei0Chen Xiaotong1Chen Jingling2College of Landscape Architecture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Zhejiang Province Key Think Tank: Institute of Ecological Civilization, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Corresponding author at: College of Landscape Architecture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.College of Landscape Architecture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, ChinaDual-carbon Research Center, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou 310015, ChinaCarbon emission intensity (CEI) functions as a pivotal metric for evaluating carbon efficiency, thereby playing a critical role in the promotion of sustainable development and the mitigation of climate change. The present study investigates CEI dynamics in 210 countries from 2000 to 2023 using the Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen median analysis, and Hurst index, complemented by machine learning to decode driving mechanisms. The findings indicate a substantial global escalation in carbon emissions, amounting to over 39.6 % during the past two decades, concomitant with a 7 % augmentation in CEI. The analysis also underscores considerable variations in CEI trends among countries. A salient finding is that over 92 % of developed nations have witnessed a decline in CEI, while more than 52 % of less developed countries persist in experiencing increases. Moreover, factors such as population density, urban–rural population dynamics, and urban land expansion are of greater significance at the global level. Furthermore, developed countries demonstrate heightened sensitivity to factors such as final consumption expenditure and urban–rural population dynamics. In contrast, the CEI of emerging economies is more influenced by indicators related to technological innovation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25009884Carbon emission intensitySpatio-temporal characteristicsMachine learning methodInfluencing factors
spellingShingle Xu Pengfei
Chen Xiaotong
Chen Jingling
Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide
Ecological Indicators
Carbon emission intensity
Spatio-temporal characteristics
Machine learning method
Influencing factors
title Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide
title_full Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide
title_fullStr Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide
title_full_unstemmed Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide
title_short Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide
title_sort characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time evidence from 210 countries worldwide
topic Carbon emission intensity
Spatio-temporal characteristics
Machine learning method
Influencing factors
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25009884
work_keys_str_mv AT xupengfei characteristicsanddriversofcarbonemissionsintensityvaryacrosscountriesandtimeevidencefrom210countriesworldwide
AT chenxiaotong characteristicsanddriversofcarbonemissionsintensityvaryacrosscountriesandtimeevidencefrom210countriesworldwide
AT chenjingling characteristicsanddriversofcarbonemissionsintensityvaryacrosscountriesandtimeevidencefrom210countriesworldwide