Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide
Carbon emission intensity (CEI) functions as a pivotal metric for evaluating carbon efficiency, thereby playing a critical role in the promotion of sustainable development and the mitigation of climate change. The present study investigates CEI dynamics in 210 countries from 2000 to 2023 using the M...
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25009884 |
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| author | Xu Pengfei Chen Xiaotong Chen Jingling |
| author_facet | Xu Pengfei Chen Xiaotong Chen Jingling |
| author_sort | Xu Pengfei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Carbon emission intensity (CEI) functions as a pivotal metric for evaluating carbon efficiency, thereby playing a critical role in the promotion of sustainable development and the mitigation of climate change. The present study investigates CEI dynamics in 210 countries from 2000 to 2023 using the Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen median analysis, and Hurst index, complemented by machine learning to decode driving mechanisms. The findings indicate a substantial global escalation in carbon emissions, amounting to over 39.6 % during the past two decades, concomitant with a 7 % augmentation in CEI. The analysis also underscores considerable variations in CEI trends among countries. A salient finding is that over 92 % of developed nations have witnessed a decline in CEI, while more than 52 % of less developed countries persist in experiencing increases. Moreover, factors such as population density, urban–rural population dynamics, and urban land expansion are of greater significance at the global level. Furthermore, developed countries demonstrate heightened sensitivity to factors such as final consumption expenditure and urban–rural population dynamics. In contrast, the CEI of emerging economies is more influenced by indicators related to technological innovation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d5b1d827d20e42f1b2c239ca42d71c7c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-d5b1d827d20e42f1b2c239ca42d71c7c2025-08-25T04:14:09ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-09-0117811405610.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114056Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwideXu Pengfei0Chen Xiaotong1Chen Jingling2College of Landscape Architecture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Zhejiang Province Key Think Tank: Institute of Ecological Civilization, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Corresponding author at: College of Landscape Architecture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.College of Landscape Architecture, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, ChinaDual-carbon Research Center, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou 310015, ChinaCarbon emission intensity (CEI) functions as a pivotal metric for evaluating carbon efficiency, thereby playing a critical role in the promotion of sustainable development and the mitigation of climate change. The present study investigates CEI dynamics in 210 countries from 2000 to 2023 using the Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen median analysis, and Hurst index, complemented by machine learning to decode driving mechanisms. The findings indicate a substantial global escalation in carbon emissions, amounting to over 39.6 % during the past two decades, concomitant with a 7 % augmentation in CEI. The analysis also underscores considerable variations in CEI trends among countries. A salient finding is that over 92 % of developed nations have witnessed a decline in CEI, while more than 52 % of less developed countries persist in experiencing increases. Moreover, factors such as population density, urban–rural population dynamics, and urban land expansion are of greater significance at the global level. Furthermore, developed countries demonstrate heightened sensitivity to factors such as final consumption expenditure and urban–rural population dynamics. In contrast, the CEI of emerging economies is more influenced by indicators related to technological innovation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25009884Carbon emission intensitySpatio-temporal characteristicsMachine learning methodInfluencing factors |
| spellingShingle | Xu Pengfei Chen Xiaotong Chen Jingling Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide Ecological Indicators Carbon emission intensity Spatio-temporal characteristics Machine learning method Influencing factors |
| title | Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide |
| title_full | Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide |
| title_fullStr | Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide |
| title_short | Characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time: evidence from 210 countries worldwide |
| title_sort | characteristics and drivers of carbon emissions intensity vary across countries and time evidence from 210 countries worldwide |
| topic | Carbon emission intensity Spatio-temporal characteristics Machine learning method Influencing factors |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25009884 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xupengfei characteristicsanddriversofcarbonemissionsintensityvaryacrosscountriesandtimeevidencefrom210countriesworldwide AT chenxiaotong characteristicsanddriversofcarbonemissionsintensityvaryacrosscountriesandtimeevidencefrom210countriesworldwide AT chenjingling characteristicsanddriversofcarbonemissionsintensityvaryacrosscountriesandtimeevidencefrom210countriesworldwide |