Constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolution
Triggered seismicity is a key hazard where fluids are injected or withdrawn from the subsurface and may impact permeability. Understanding the mechanisms that control fluid injection-triggered seismicity allows its mitigation. Key controls on seismicity are defined in terms of fault and fracture str...
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| Format: | Article |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674775524005663 |
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| author | Derek Elsworth Ziyan Li Pengliang Yu Mengke An Fengshou Zhang Rui Huang Zihan Sun Guanglei Cui Tianyu Chen Quan Gan Yixin Zhao Jishan Liu Shimin Liu |
| author_facet | Derek Elsworth Ziyan Li Pengliang Yu Mengke An Fengshou Zhang Rui Huang Zihan Sun Guanglei Cui Tianyu Chen Quan Gan Yixin Zhao Jishan Liu Shimin Liu |
| author_sort | Derek Elsworth |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Triggered seismicity is a key hazard where fluids are injected or withdrawn from the subsurface and may impact permeability. Understanding the mechanisms that control fluid injection-triggered seismicity allows its mitigation. Key controls on seismicity are defined in terms of fault and fracture strength, second-order frictional response and stability, and competing fluid-driven mechanisms for arrest. We desire to constrain maximum event magnitudes in triggered earthquakes by relating pre-existing critical stresses to fluid injection volume to explain why some recorded events are significantly larger than anticipated seismic moment thresholds. This formalism is consistent with several uncharacteristically large fluid injection-triggered earthquakes. Such methods of reactivating fractures and faults by hydraulic stimulation in shear or tensile fracturing are routinely used to create permeability in the subsurface. Microearthquakes (MEQs) generated by such stimulations can be used to diagnose permeability evolution. Although high-fidelity data sets are scarce, the EGS-Collab and Utah FORGE hydraulic stimulation field demonstration projects provide high-fidelity data sets that concurrently track permeability evolution and triggered seismicity. Machine learning deciphers the principal features of MEQs and the resulting permeability evolution that best track permeability changes – with transfer learning methods allowing robust predictions across multiple eological settings. Changes in permeability at reactivated fractures in both shear and extensional modes suggest that permeability change (Δk) scales with the seismic moment (M) of individual MEQs as Δk∝M. This scaling relation is exact at early times but degrades with successive MEQs, but provides a method for characterizing crustal permeability evolution using MEQs, alone. Importantly, we quantify for the first time the role of prestress in defining the elevated magnitude and seismic moment of fluid injection-triggered events, and demonstrate that such MEQs can also be used as diagnostic in quantifying permeability evolution in the crust. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d3c08520f5e24dc5af11c5d0db08f70c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1674-7755 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-d3c08520f5e24dc5af11c5d0db08f70c2025-01-17T04:49:14ZengElsevierJournal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering1674-77552025-01-011712030Constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolutionDerek Elsworth0Ziyan Li1Pengliang Yu2Mengke An3Fengshou Zhang4Rui Huang5Zihan Sun6Guanglei Cui7Tianyu Chen8Quan Gan9Yixin Zhao10Jishan Liu11Shimin Liu12Energy and Mineral Engineering & Geosciences, EMS Energy Institute and G3 Center, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA; Corresponding author.Energy and Mineral Engineering & Geosciences, EMS Energy Institute and G3 Center, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USAEnergy and Mineral Engineering & Geosciences, EMS Energy Institute and G3 Center, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USAHong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, ChinaTongji University, Shanghai, ChinaEnergy and Mineral Engineering & Geosciences, EMS Energy Institute and G3 Center, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA; Tongji University, Shanghai, ChinaNortheastern University, Shenyang, ChinaNortheastern University, Shenyang, ChinaNortheastern University, Shenyang, ChinaChongqing University, Chongqing, ChinaChina University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing, ChinaUniversity of Western Australia, Crawley, AustraliaEnergy and Mineral Engineering & Geosciences, EMS Energy Institute and G3 Center, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USATriggered seismicity is a key hazard where fluids are injected or withdrawn from the subsurface and may impact permeability. Understanding the mechanisms that control fluid injection-triggered seismicity allows its mitigation. Key controls on seismicity are defined in terms of fault and fracture strength, second-order frictional response and stability, and competing fluid-driven mechanisms for arrest. We desire to constrain maximum event magnitudes in triggered earthquakes by relating pre-existing critical stresses to fluid injection volume to explain why some recorded events are significantly larger than anticipated seismic moment thresholds. This formalism is consistent with several uncharacteristically large fluid injection-triggered earthquakes. Such methods of reactivating fractures and faults by hydraulic stimulation in shear or tensile fracturing are routinely used to create permeability in the subsurface. Microearthquakes (MEQs) generated by such stimulations can be used to diagnose permeability evolution. Although high-fidelity data sets are scarce, the EGS-Collab and Utah FORGE hydraulic stimulation field demonstration projects provide high-fidelity data sets that concurrently track permeability evolution and triggered seismicity. Machine learning deciphers the principal features of MEQs and the resulting permeability evolution that best track permeability changes – with transfer learning methods allowing robust predictions across multiple eological settings. Changes in permeability at reactivated fractures in both shear and extensional modes suggest that permeability change (Δk) scales with the seismic moment (M) of individual MEQs as Δk∝M. This scaling relation is exact at early times but degrades with successive MEQs, but provides a method for characterizing crustal permeability evolution using MEQs, alone. Importantly, we quantify for the first time the role of prestress in defining the elevated magnitude and seismic moment of fluid injection-triggered events, and demonstrate that such MEQs can also be used as diagnostic in quantifying permeability evolution in the crust.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674775524005663SeismicityDilatant hardeningCritical stiffnessMaximum seismic momentPermeability change |
| spellingShingle | Derek Elsworth Ziyan Li Pengliang Yu Mengke An Fengshou Zhang Rui Huang Zihan Sun Guanglei Cui Tianyu Chen Quan Gan Yixin Zhao Jishan Liu Shimin Liu Constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolution Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering Seismicity Dilatant hardening Critical stiffness Maximum seismic moment Permeability change |
| title | Constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolution |
| title_full | Constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolution |
| title_fullStr | Constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolution |
| title_full_unstemmed | Constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolution |
| title_short | Constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolution |
| title_sort | constraints on triggered seismicity and its control on permeability evolution |
| topic | Seismicity Dilatant hardening Critical stiffness Maximum seismic moment Permeability change |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674775524005663 |
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