Estimated density of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern United States
Abstract Background Most vector-borne disease cases reported in the United States are caused by pathogens spread by blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis. Of these, a majority are Lyme disease cases caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.). Because most human infections are associated with...
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BMC
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Parasites & Vectors |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06937-2 |
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| author | Karen M. Holcomb Erik Foster Sarah E. Maes Christina M. Parise Lynn M. Osikowicz Andrias Hojgaard Rebecca J. Eisen |
| author_facet | Karen M. Holcomb Erik Foster Sarah E. Maes Christina M. Parise Lynn M. Osikowicz Andrias Hojgaard Rebecca J. Eisen |
| author_sort | Karen M. Holcomb |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Most vector-borne disease cases reported in the United States are caused by pathogens spread by blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis. Of these, a majority are Lyme disease cases caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.). Because most human infections are associated with nymphal tick bites, the density of host-seeking B. burgdorferi s.s.-infected I. scapularis nymphs (DIN) is often used to estimate risk of Lyme disease cases. DIN combines estimates of nymphal infection prevalence with estimates of densities of host-seeking nymphs, making it a costly metric to obtain through tick surveillance. Thus, field-derived estimates of DIN are limited. Methods To fill these gaps, we sought to estimate DIN across all counties in the eastern United States. We first estimated B. burgdorferi s.s. prevalence in host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs using generalized additive models and historical tick surveillance data reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s ArboNET database (2004–2023). We then combined prevalence estimates with previously estimated densities of host-seeking nymphs to estimate DIN. We validated these model-based estimates against data reported to ArboNET: field-derived county estimates of prevalence and DIN as well as county records of B. burgdorferi s.s. presence and collection of host-seeking nymphs. Results We estimated higher average nymphal prevalence (20–30%) in the Upper Midwest and Northeast and lower prevalence (0–5%) throughout the Southeast. Categorizing estimated DIN as minimal or elevated, we identified areas in the Upper Midwest and Northeast as elevated, with the majority of the Southeast and Great Plains as minimal risk. Conclusions Our resulting risk map can be used to raise awareness of Lyme disease in communities at elevated risk and aid in the promotion of tick-bite prevention practices. Graphical Abstract |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d2e094f025dd412d88a14deeef1b61d4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1756-3305 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | Parasites & Vectors |
| spelling | doaj-art-d2e094f025dd412d88a14deeef1b61d42025-08-24T11:10:30ZengBMCParasites & Vectors1756-33052025-08-0118112110.1186/s13071-025-06937-2Estimated density of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern United StatesKaren M. Holcomb0Erik Foster1Sarah E. Maes2Christina M. Parise3Lynn M. Osikowicz4Andrias Hojgaard5Rebecca J. Eisen6Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Vector Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionAbstract Background Most vector-borne disease cases reported in the United States are caused by pathogens spread by blacklegged ticks, Ixodes scapularis. Of these, a majority are Lyme disease cases caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.). Because most human infections are associated with nymphal tick bites, the density of host-seeking B. burgdorferi s.s.-infected I. scapularis nymphs (DIN) is often used to estimate risk of Lyme disease cases. DIN combines estimates of nymphal infection prevalence with estimates of densities of host-seeking nymphs, making it a costly metric to obtain through tick surveillance. Thus, field-derived estimates of DIN are limited. Methods To fill these gaps, we sought to estimate DIN across all counties in the eastern United States. We first estimated B. burgdorferi s.s. prevalence in host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs using generalized additive models and historical tick surveillance data reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s ArboNET database (2004–2023). We then combined prevalence estimates with previously estimated densities of host-seeking nymphs to estimate DIN. We validated these model-based estimates against data reported to ArboNET: field-derived county estimates of prevalence and DIN as well as county records of B. burgdorferi s.s. presence and collection of host-seeking nymphs. Results We estimated higher average nymphal prevalence (20–30%) in the Upper Midwest and Northeast and lower prevalence (0–5%) throughout the Southeast. Categorizing estimated DIN as minimal or elevated, we identified areas in the Upper Midwest and Northeast as elevated, with the majority of the Southeast and Great Plains as minimal risk. Conclusions Our resulting risk map can be used to raise awareness of Lyme disease in communities at elevated risk and aid in the promotion of tick-bite prevention practices. Graphical Abstracthttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06937-2Generalized addition modelAcarological riskDeer ticksTick surveillance |
| spellingShingle | Karen M. Holcomb Erik Foster Sarah E. Maes Christina M. Parise Lynn M. Osikowicz Andrias Hojgaard Rebecca J. Eisen Estimated density of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern United States Parasites & Vectors Generalized addition model Acarological risk Deer ticks Tick surveillance |
| title | Estimated density of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern United States |
| title_full | Estimated density of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern United States |
| title_fullStr | Estimated density of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimated density of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern United States |
| title_short | Estimated density of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto-infected Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern United States |
| title_sort | estimated density of borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto infected ixodes scapularis nymphs in the eastern united states |
| topic | Generalized addition model Acarological risk Deer ticks Tick surveillance |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06937-2 |
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