Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in Bhutan
Parthenium weed (<i>Parthenium hysterophorus</i> L.) is one of the most noxious and fast-spreading invasive alien species, posing a major threat to ecosystems, agriculture, and public health worldwide. Mechanistic and correlative species distribution models are commonly employed to deter...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | Plants |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/1/83 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841549103350153216 |
|---|---|
| author | Sangay Dorji Stephen Stewart Asad Shabbir Ali Bajwa Ammar Aziz Steve Adkins |
| author_facet | Sangay Dorji Stephen Stewart Asad Shabbir Ali Bajwa Ammar Aziz Steve Adkins |
| author_sort | Sangay Dorji |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Parthenium weed (<i>Parthenium hysterophorus</i> L.) is one of the most noxious and fast-spreading invasive alien species, posing a major threat to ecosystems, agriculture, and public health worldwide. Mechanistic and correlative species distribution models are commonly employed to determine the potential habitat suitability of parthenium weed. However, a comparative analysis of these two approaches for parthenium weed is lacking, leaving a gap in understanding their relative effectiveness and ability to describe habitat suitability of parthenium weed. This study compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX with random forest (RF), the best-performing of a suite of correlative models. When compared against occurrence records and pseudo-absences, measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, true skill statistic, sensitivity, and specificity, the results revealed higher performance of RF compared to CLIMEX. Globally, RF predicted 7 million km<sup>2</sup> (2% of the total land mass) as suitable for parthenium weed, while CLIMEX predicted 20 million km<sup>2</sup> (13%). Based on binary maps, RF and CLIMEX identified 67 and 20 countries as suitable, respectively. For Bhutan, globally trained RF predicted 8919 km<sup>2</sup> (23% of the country’s total 38,394 km<sup>2</sup>) as currently suitable, with high suitability in the southern, west–central, central, and eastern districts, particularly along major highways. For the future, the 10 general circulation models downscaled to Bhutan showed a decrease in suitability across four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) and three periods (2021–2050, 2051–2080, 2071–2100), with a northward shift in suitable habitats ranging from 2 to 76 km. Additionally, 2049 (23%) km<sup>2</sup> of agricultural land is currently at risk of being invaded by parthenium weed. Correlative and mechanistic models are based on different niche concepts (i.e., realized and fundamental, respectively), and therefore combining them can provide a better understanding of actual and potential species distributions. Given the high suitability of parthenium weed under the current climate and its potential negative impacts in Bhutan, early action such as early detection and control of infested areas, regular survey and monitoring, and creating public awareness are proposed as risk mitigation strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d2397b41f29d42c891fd1d5ad3c1d7aa |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2223-7747 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj-art-d2397b41f29d42c891fd1d5ad3c1d7aa2025-01-10T13:19:41ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472024-12-011418310.3390/plants14010083Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in BhutanSangay Dorji0Stephen Stewart1Asad Shabbir2Ali Bajwa3Ammar Aziz4Steve Adkins5School of Agriculture and Food Sustainability, The University of Queensland, Gatton, QLD 4343, AustraliaCSIRO Environment, Private Bag No. 5, GPO Box 1700, Hobart, TAS 7005, AustraliaWeeds Research Unit, Invasive Species Biosecurity, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Orange, NSW 2800, AustraliaLa Trobe Institute of Sustainable Agriculture and Food (LISAF), Department of Ecological, Plant and Animal Sciences, AgriBio, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC 3086, AustraliaSchool of Agriculture and Food Sustainability, The University of Queensland, Gatton, QLD 4343, AustraliaSchool of Agriculture and Food Sustainability, The University of Queensland, Gatton, QLD 4343, AustraliaParthenium weed (<i>Parthenium hysterophorus</i> L.) is one of the most noxious and fast-spreading invasive alien species, posing a major threat to ecosystems, agriculture, and public health worldwide. Mechanistic and correlative species distribution models are commonly employed to determine the potential habitat suitability of parthenium weed. However, a comparative analysis of these two approaches for parthenium weed is lacking, leaving a gap in understanding their relative effectiveness and ability to describe habitat suitability of parthenium weed. This study compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX with random forest (RF), the best-performing of a suite of correlative models. When compared against occurrence records and pseudo-absences, measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, true skill statistic, sensitivity, and specificity, the results revealed higher performance of RF compared to CLIMEX. Globally, RF predicted 7 million km<sup>2</sup> (2% of the total land mass) as suitable for parthenium weed, while CLIMEX predicted 20 million km<sup>2</sup> (13%). Based on binary maps, RF and CLIMEX identified 67 and 20 countries as suitable, respectively. For Bhutan, globally trained RF predicted 8919 km<sup>2</sup> (23% of the country’s total 38,394 km<sup>2</sup>) as currently suitable, with high suitability in the southern, west–central, central, and eastern districts, particularly along major highways. For the future, the 10 general circulation models downscaled to Bhutan showed a decrease in suitability across four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) and three periods (2021–2050, 2051–2080, 2071–2100), with a northward shift in suitable habitats ranging from 2 to 76 km. Additionally, 2049 (23%) km<sup>2</sup> of agricultural land is currently at risk of being invaded by parthenium weed. Correlative and mechanistic models are based on different niche concepts (i.e., realized and fundamental, respectively), and therefore combining them can provide a better understanding of actual and potential species distributions. Given the high suitability of parthenium weed under the current climate and its potential negative impacts in Bhutan, early action such as early detection and control of infested areas, regular survey and monitoring, and creating public awareness are proposed as risk mitigation strategies.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/1/83<i>Parthenium hysterophorus</i>species distribution modellingCLIMEXrandom forestclimate changeinvasive alien species |
| spellingShingle | Sangay Dorji Stephen Stewart Asad Shabbir Ali Bajwa Ammar Aziz Steve Adkins Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in Bhutan Plants <i>Parthenium hysterophorus</i> species distribution modelling CLIMEX random forest climate change invasive alien species |
| title | Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in Bhutan |
| title_full | Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in Bhutan |
| title_fullStr | Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in Bhutan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in Bhutan |
| title_short | Comparative Analysis of Mechanistic and Correlative Models for Global and Bhutan-Specific Suitability of Parthenium Weed and Vulnerability of Agriculture in Bhutan |
| title_sort | comparative analysis of mechanistic and correlative models for global and bhutan specific suitability of parthenium weed and vulnerability of agriculture in bhutan |
| topic | <i>Parthenium hysterophorus</i> species distribution modelling CLIMEX random forest climate change invasive alien species |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/1/83 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sangaydorji comparativeanalysisofmechanisticandcorrelativemodelsforglobalandbhutanspecificsuitabilityofpartheniumweedandvulnerabilityofagricultureinbhutan AT stephenstewart comparativeanalysisofmechanisticandcorrelativemodelsforglobalandbhutanspecificsuitabilityofpartheniumweedandvulnerabilityofagricultureinbhutan AT asadshabbir comparativeanalysisofmechanisticandcorrelativemodelsforglobalandbhutanspecificsuitabilityofpartheniumweedandvulnerabilityofagricultureinbhutan AT alibajwa comparativeanalysisofmechanisticandcorrelativemodelsforglobalandbhutanspecificsuitabilityofpartheniumweedandvulnerabilityofagricultureinbhutan AT ammaraziz comparativeanalysisofmechanisticandcorrelativemodelsforglobalandbhutanspecificsuitabilityofpartheniumweedandvulnerabilityofagricultureinbhutan AT steveadkins comparativeanalysisofmechanisticandcorrelativemodelsforglobalandbhutanspecificsuitabilityofpartheniumweedandvulnerabilityofagricultureinbhutan |