Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing
Abstract Tropical convection plays a critical role in modulating the global climate by influencing climate variability. However, its future projection under climate mitigation scenarios remains uncertain. Here, we found that while the relationship between precipitation intensity and upward motion re...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7 |
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| author | In-Hong Park Sang-Wook Yeh Seung-Ki Min Soon-Il An Shang-Ping Xie Jongsoo Shin |
| author_facet | In-Hong Park Sang-Wook Yeh Seung-Ki Min Soon-Il An Shang-Ping Xie Jongsoo Shin |
| author_sort | In-Hong Park |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Tropical convection plays a critical role in modulating the global climate by influencing climate variability. However, its future projection under climate mitigation scenarios remains uncertain. Here, we found that while the relationship between precipitation intensity and upward motion remains constant regardless of changing CO2 concentrations, the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection and the convective zone exhibit hysteretic and irreversible behavior. As the CO2 concentration decreases from its peak (ramp-down), higher tropical ocean temperature leads to higher sea surface temperature thresholds for convection than during the period of increasing CO2 concentration (ramp-up), while convective instability remains the same during both ramp-up and ramp-down. El Niño-like warming during the ramp-down leads to a weakening of the Walker circulation and an expansion of the convective zone in the central to eastern tropical Pacific by a warmer-get-wetter mechanism. Our results suggest that CO2 removal does not guarantee the recovery of tropical convection. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d20706c9f5c64898a31beb6a6f9d4a8f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-d20706c9f5c64898a31beb6a6f9d4a8f2024-11-10T12:43:46ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-11-015111110.1038/s43247-024-01751-7Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcingIn-Hong Park0Sang-Wook Yeh1Seung-Ki Min2Soon-Il An3Shang-Ping Xie4Jongsoo Shin5Department of Marine Science and Convergence Engineering, Hanyang University, ERICADepartment of Marine Science and Convergence Engineering, Hanyang University, ERICADivision of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San DiegoWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionAbstract Tropical convection plays a critical role in modulating the global climate by influencing climate variability. However, its future projection under climate mitigation scenarios remains uncertain. Here, we found that while the relationship between precipitation intensity and upward motion remains constant regardless of changing CO2 concentrations, the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection and the convective zone exhibit hysteretic and irreversible behavior. As the CO2 concentration decreases from its peak (ramp-down), higher tropical ocean temperature leads to higher sea surface temperature thresholds for convection than during the period of increasing CO2 concentration (ramp-up), while convective instability remains the same during both ramp-up and ramp-down. El Niño-like warming during the ramp-down leads to a weakening of the Walker circulation and an expansion of the convective zone in the central to eastern tropical Pacific by a warmer-get-wetter mechanism. Our results suggest that CO2 removal does not guarantee the recovery of tropical convection.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7 |
| spellingShingle | In-Hong Park Sang-Wook Yeh Seung-Ki Min Soon-Il An Shang-Ping Xie Jongsoo Shin Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing |
| title_full | Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing |
| title_fullStr | Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing |
| title_full_unstemmed | Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing |
| title_short | Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing |
| title_sort | irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to co2 forcing |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7 |
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