Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake Michigan
Climatological variables undergo changes over time, and it is important to understand such dynamic changes at global, regional, and local levels. While global and regional studies are common in the study of climate, such studies at a local level are not as common. The aim of this article is to study...
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MDPI AG
2024-10-01
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| author | Abhishek Kaul Alex Paparas Venkata K. Jandhyala Stergios B. Fotopoulos |
| author_facet | Abhishek Kaul Alex Paparas Venkata K. Jandhyala Stergios B. Fotopoulos |
| author_sort | Abhishek Kaul |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climatological variables undergo changes over time, and it is important to understand such dynamic changes at global, regional, and local levels. While global and regional studies are common in the study of climate, such studies at a local level are not as common. The aim of this article is to study temporal changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature variables at specific stations located on the rims of Lake Erie and Lake Michigan. The identification of changes is carried out by applying change-point analysis to precipitation, snowfall, and temperature data from Buffalo, Erie, and Cleveland stations located on the rim of Lake Erie and at Chicago, Milwaukee, and Green Bay stations located on the rim of Lake Michigan. We adopt mainly the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) method to identify the number and locations of change points, and then we apply the generalized likelihood ratio statistic to test for the statistical significance of the identified change points. We follow this up by finding 95% confidence intervals for those change points that were found to be statistically significant. The results from the analysis show that there are significant changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature variables at all six rim stations. Changes in precipitation show consistently significant increases, whereas there is no similar consistency in snowfall increases. Temperature increases are generally quite sharp, and they occur consistently around 1985. Overall, upon combining the amounts of changes from all six stations, the average amount of change in annual average temperature is found to be 0.96 °C, the average percentage of change in precipitation is 16%, and the average percentage of change in snowfall is 17%. The changing local climatic conditions identified in the study are important for local city planners, as well as residents, so that they can be well prepared for changing climatic scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d033318bb92c4cba90fe50c6a996c30d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2674-0494 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-d033318bb92c4cba90fe50c6a996c30d2024-12-27T14:40:12ZengMDPI AGMeteorology2674-04942024-10-013433335310.3390/meteorology3040017Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake MichiganAbhishek Kaul0Alex Paparas1Venkata K. Jandhyala2Stergios B. Fotopoulos3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USADepartment of Information Systems and Business Analytics, Eastern Washington University, Cheney, WA 99004, USADepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USADepartment of Finance and Management Science, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USAClimatological variables undergo changes over time, and it is important to understand such dynamic changes at global, regional, and local levels. While global and regional studies are common in the study of climate, such studies at a local level are not as common. The aim of this article is to study temporal changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature variables at specific stations located on the rims of Lake Erie and Lake Michigan. The identification of changes is carried out by applying change-point analysis to precipitation, snowfall, and temperature data from Buffalo, Erie, and Cleveland stations located on the rim of Lake Erie and at Chicago, Milwaukee, and Green Bay stations located on the rim of Lake Michigan. We adopt mainly the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) method to identify the number and locations of change points, and then we apply the generalized likelihood ratio statistic to test for the statistical significance of the identified change points. We follow this up by finding 95% confidence intervals for those change points that were found to be statistically significant. The results from the analysis show that there are significant changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature variables at all six rim stations. Changes in precipitation show consistently significant increases, whereas there is no similar consistency in snowfall increases. Temperature increases are generally quite sharp, and they occur consistently around 1985. Overall, upon combining the amounts of changes from all six stations, the average amount of change in annual average temperature is found to be 0.96 °C, the average percentage of change in precipitation is 16%, and the average percentage of change in snowfall is 17%. The changing local climatic conditions identified in the study are important for local city planners, as well as residents, so that they can be well prepared for changing climatic scenarios.https://www.mdpi.com/2674-0494/3/4/17change-point estimationclimatological variablesLake Erie and Lake Michiganrim stationsPoisson distributiongamma and normal distributions |
| spellingShingle | Abhishek Kaul Alex Paparas Venkata K. Jandhyala Stergios B. Fotopoulos Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake Michigan Meteorology change-point estimation climatological variables Lake Erie and Lake Michigan rim stations Poisson distribution gamma and normal distributions |
| title | Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake Michigan |
| title_full | Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake Michigan |
| title_fullStr | Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake Michigan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake Michigan |
| title_short | Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake Michigan |
| title_sort | changes in climatological variables at stations around lake erie and lake michigan |
| topic | change-point estimation climatological variables Lake Erie and Lake Michigan rim stations Poisson distribution gamma and normal distributions |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2674-0494/3/4/17 |
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