Can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models?

Objective To externally validate by revision and update the study on the efficacy of nosocomial infection control (SENIC) model of surgical site infection (SSI) using logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) approaches. Methods A retrospective analysis of hospital database-derived data fro...

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Main Authors: Pongsathorn Piebpien, Amarit Tansawet, Oraluck Pattanaprateep, Anuchate Pattanateepapon, Chumpon Wilasrusmee, Gareth J. Mckay, John Attia, Ammarin Thakkinstian
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2024-11-01
Series:Journal of International Medical Research
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/03000605241293696
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author Pongsathorn Piebpien
Amarit Tansawet
Oraluck Pattanaprateep
Anuchate Pattanateepapon
Chumpon Wilasrusmee
Gareth J. Mckay
John Attia
Ammarin Thakkinstian
author_facet Pongsathorn Piebpien
Amarit Tansawet
Oraluck Pattanaprateep
Anuchate Pattanateepapon
Chumpon Wilasrusmee
Gareth J. Mckay
John Attia
Ammarin Thakkinstian
author_sort Pongsathorn Piebpien
collection DOAJ
description Objective To externally validate by revision and update the study on the efficacy of nosocomial infection control (SENIC) model of surgical site infection (SSI) using logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) approaches. Methods A retrospective analysis of hospital database-derived data from patients that had undergone gastrointestinal, colorectal and hernia surgeries (identified by ICD-9-CM). The SENIC index was calculated and fitted in an LR. MLs were developed using decision-tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme-gradient-boosting (XGBoost) and Naïve Bayes (NB). Results The prevalence of an SSI was 3.21% (404 of 12 596 surgeries; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.91%, 3.53%). The C-statistic for the original SENIC model was 0.668 (95% CI 0.648, 0.688) with an observed/expected (O/E) ratio of 0.998 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.750, 1.047). An updated-SENIC-LR model with six predictors had a C-statistic of 0.768 (95% CI 0.745, 0.790) and O/E ratio of 0.999 (IQR 0.976, 1.004). The performance of MLs considering 14 predictors was poorer than the updated-SENIC-LR with C-statistics of 0.679, 0.675, 0.656 and 0.651 for NB, XGBoost, RF and DT, respectively. Overfitting was detected for ML approaches, particularly for DT, RF and XGBoost. Conclusion The updated-SENIC-LR model and NB may be useful for monitoring SSI risk following abdominal surgery.
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spelling doaj-art-cd3e2186baf94e3a87e95676b22ed2e32024-11-18T08:03:33ZengSAGE PublishingJournal of International Medical Research1473-23002024-11-015210.1177/03000605241293696Can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models?Pongsathorn PiebpienAmarit TansawetOraluck PattanaprateepAnuchate PattanateepaponChumpon WilasrusmeeGareth J. MckayJohn AttiaAmmarin ThakkinstianObjective To externally validate by revision and update the study on the efficacy of nosocomial infection control (SENIC) model of surgical site infection (SSI) using logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) approaches. Methods A retrospective analysis of hospital database-derived data from patients that had undergone gastrointestinal, colorectal and hernia surgeries (identified by ICD-9-CM). The SENIC index was calculated and fitted in an LR. MLs were developed using decision-tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme-gradient-boosting (XGBoost) and Naïve Bayes (NB). Results The prevalence of an SSI was 3.21% (404 of 12 596 surgeries; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.91%, 3.53%). The C-statistic for the original SENIC model was 0.668 (95% CI 0.648, 0.688) with an observed/expected (O/E) ratio of 0.998 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.750, 1.047). An updated-SENIC-LR model with six predictors had a C-statistic of 0.768 (95% CI 0.745, 0.790) and O/E ratio of 0.999 (IQR 0.976, 1.004). The performance of MLs considering 14 predictors was poorer than the updated-SENIC-LR with C-statistics of 0.679, 0.675, 0.656 and 0.651 for NB, XGBoost, RF and DT, respectively. Overfitting was detected for ML approaches, particularly for DT, RF and XGBoost. Conclusion The updated-SENIC-LR model and NB may be useful for monitoring SSI risk following abdominal surgery.https://doi.org/10.1177/03000605241293696
spellingShingle Pongsathorn Piebpien
Amarit Tansawet
Oraluck Pattanaprateep
Anuchate Pattanateepapon
Chumpon Wilasrusmee
Gareth J. Mckay
John Attia
Ammarin Thakkinstian
Can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models?
Journal of International Medical Research
title Can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models?
title_full Can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models?
title_fullStr Can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models?
title_full_unstemmed Can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models?
title_short Can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models?
title_sort can machine learning models improve the prediction of surgical site infection in abdominal surgery than traditional statistical models
url https://doi.org/10.1177/03000605241293696
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