An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival
The effects of Spring Festival on electricity sales of different trades were considered and an adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result was proposed.Firstly,the month-quarter ratio of historical electricity sales in each trade of every month in the first quarter and the distance be...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
Beijing Xintong Media Co., Ltd
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Dianxin kexue |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.telecomsci.com/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019041/ |
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| _version_ | 1841530477930872832 |
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| author | Jian LIU Jiakui ZHAO Yuze CHEN Xuemin FANG Yuxi LIU Shulong WANG Yan CHEN Hong OUYANG |
| author_facet | Jian LIU Jiakui ZHAO Yuze CHEN Xuemin FANG Yuxi LIU Shulong WANG Yan CHEN Hong OUYANG |
| author_sort | Jian LIU |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The effects of Spring Festival on electricity sales of different trades were considered and an adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result was proposed.Firstly,the month-quarter ratio of historical electricity sales in each trade of every month in the first quarter and the distance between Spring Festival and the first day of every month in the first quarter was used to create a functional relationship.Then,the distance between Spring Festival and the first day of every month in the first quarter of the target year was used as input and the predicted month-quarter ratio of electricity sales of each trade of every month in the first quarter of the target year was calculated according to the functional relationship.The adjusted electricity sales forecasting result can then be computed by using the predicted month-quarter ratio and the electricity sales forecasting of each trade of every month in the first quarter of the target year before adjustment.The adjustment result shows that the proposed method can effectively lower the error of electricity sales forecasting in the first quarter. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ccd95fcb17cb469cac2df91186de48a6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1000-0801 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | Beijing Xintong Media Co., Ltd |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Dianxin kexue |
| spelling | doaj-art-ccd95fcb17cb469cac2df91186de48a62025-01-15T03:03:15ZzhoBeijing Xintong Media Co., LtdDianxin kexue1000-08012019-03-013512713459590826An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festivalJian LIUJiakui ZHAOYuze CHENXuemin FANGYuxi LIUShulong WANGYan CHENHong OUYANGThe effects of Spring Festival on electricity sales of different trades were considered and an adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result was proposed.Firstly,the month-quarter ratio of historical electricity sales in each trade of every month in the first quarter and the distance between Spring Festival and the first day of every month in the first quarter was used to create a functional relationship.Then,the distance between Spring Festival and the first day of every month in the first quarter of the target year was used as input and the predicted month-quarter ratio of electricity sales of each trade of every month in the first quarter of the target year was calculated according to the functional relationship.The adjusted electricity sales forecasting result can then be computed by using the predicted month-quarter ratio and the electricity sales forecasting of each trade of every month in the first quarter of the target year before adjustment.The adjustment result shows that the proposed method can effectively lower the error of electricity sales forecasting in the first quarter.http://www.telecomsci.com/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019041/electricity salesSpring Festivalregression analysisleast square |
| spellingShingle | Jian LIU Jiakui ZHAO Yuze CHEN Xuemin FANG Yuxi LIU Shulong WANG Yan CHEN Hong OUYANG An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival Dianxin kexue electricity sales Spring Festival regression analysis least square |
| title | An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival |
| title_full | An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival |
| title_fullStr | An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival |
| title_full_unstemmed | An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival |
| title_short | An adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival |
| title_sort | adjustment method for electricity sales forecasting result considering the effects of spring festival |
| topic | electricity sales Spring Festival regression analysis least square |
| url | http://www.telecomsci.com/zh/article/doi/10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019041/ |
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