Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind Driving
Abstract Some space weather models, such as the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) used in this study, use solar wind propagated from the first Lagrange point (L1) to the bow shock nose (BSN) to forecast geomagnetic storms. The SWMF is a highly coupled framework of space weather models that inc...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-04-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003747 |
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| author | Q. Al Shidi T. I. Pulkkinen D. Welling G. Toth |
| author_facet | Q. Al Shidi T. I. Pulkkinen D. Welling G. Toth |
| author_sort | Q. Al Shidi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Some space weather models, such as the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) used in this study, use solar wind propagated from the first Lagrange point (L1) to the bow shock nose (BSN) to forecast geomagnetic storms. The SWMF is a highly coupled framework of space weather models that include multiple facets of the Geospace environment, such as the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The propagated solar wind measurements are used as a boundary condition for SWMF. The solar wind propagation method is a timeshift based on the calculated phase front normal (PFN) which leads to some uncertainties. For example, the propagated solar wind could have evolved during this timeshift. We use a data set of 123 geomagnetic storms between 2010 and 2019 run by the SWMF Geospace configuration to analyze the impact solar wind propagation and solar wind driving has on the geomagnetic indices. We look at the probability distributions of errors in SYM‐H, cross polar cap potential (CPCP), and auroral electrojet indices AL and AU. Through studying the median errors (MdE), standard deviations and standardized regression coefficients, we find that the errors depend on the propagation parameters. Among the results, we show that the accuracy of the simulated SYM‐H depends on the spacecraft distance from the Sun‐Earth line. We also quantify the dependence of the standard deviation in SYM‐H errors on the PFN and solar wind pressure. These statistics provide an insight into how the propagation method affects the final product of the simulation, which are the geomagnetic indices. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ca77d15f7bf44fe6a8e1ebdaf4133497 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-ca77d15f7bf44fe6a8e1ebdaf41334972025-01-14T16:27:27ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902024-04-01224n/an/a10.1029/2023SW003747Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind DrivingQ. Al Shidi0T. I. Pulkkinen1D. Welling2G. Toth3Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering West Virginia University Morgantown WV USADepartment of Climate & Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADepartment of Climate & Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USADepartment of Climate & Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USAAbstract Some space weather models, such as the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) used in this study, use solar wind propagated from the first Lagrange point (L1) to the bow shock nose (BSN) to forecast geomagnetic storms. The SWMF is a highly coupled framework of space weather models that include multiple facets of the Geospace environment, such as the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The propagated solar wind measurements are used as a boundary condition for SWMF. The solar wind propagation method is a timeshift based on the calculated phase front normal (PFN) which leads to some uncertainties. For example, the propagated solar wind could have evolved during this timeshift. We use a data set of 123 geomagnetic storms between 2010 and 2019 run by the SWMF Geospace configuration to analyze the impact solar wind propagation and solar wind driving has on the geomagnetic indices. We look at the probability distributions of errors in SYM‐H, cross polar cap potential (CPCP), and auroral electrojet indices AL and AU. Through studying the median errors (MdE), standard deviations and standardized regression coefficients, we find that the errors depend on the propagation parameters. Among the results, we show that the accuracy of the simulated SYM‐H depends on the spacecraft distance from the Sun‐Earth line. We also quantify the dependence of the standard deviation in SYM‐H errors on the PFN and solar wind pressure. These statistics provide an insight into how the propagation method affects the final product of the simulation, which are the geomagnetic indices.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003747solar wind propagationgeospaceswmfgeomagnetic indicesuncertaintymodel validation |
| spellingShingle | Q. Al Shidi T. I. Pulkkinen D. Welling G. Toth Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind Driving Space Weather solar wind propagation geospace swmf geomagnetic indices uncertainty model validation |
| title | Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind Driving |
| title_full | Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind Driving |
| title_fullStr | Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind Driving |
| title_full_unstemmed | Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind Driving |
| title_short | Accuracy of Global Geospace Simulations: Influence of Solar Wind Monitor Location and Solar Wind Driving |
| title_sort | accuracy of global geospace simulations influence of solar wind monitor location and solar wind driving |
| topic | solar wind propagation geospace swmf geomagnetic indices uncertainty model validation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003747 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT qalshidi accuracyofglobalgeospacesimulationsinfluenceofsolarwindmonitorlocationandsolarwinddriving AT tipulkkinen accuracyofglobalgeospacesimulationsinfluenceofsolarwindmonitorlocationandsolarwinddriving AT dwelling accuracyofglobalgeospacesimulationsinfluenceofsolarwindmonitorlocationandsolarwinddriving AT gtoth accuracyofglobalgeospacesimulationsinfluenceofsolarwindmonitorlocationandsolarwinddriving |