The Role of Chinese Trade in the Economic Stability of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
This study explores the feasibility of forging trade partnerships between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, emphasizing the crucial role of economic stability in determining trade effectiveness considering the significance of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. Using the Morris technique,...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
National Sun Yat-sen University
2024-06-01
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| Series: | Contemporary Chinese Political Economy and Strategic Relations: An International Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://icaps.nsysu.edu.tw/static/file/131/1131/img/CCPS(10)1-Bastanifar-Khan-Alkan.pdf |
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| Summary: | This study explores the feasibility of forging trade partnerships between
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, emphasizing the crucial role of economic
stability in determining trade effectiveness considering the significance of
the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. Using the Morris technique,
for measuring economic stability index, the research examines key
variables such as inflation rates, unemployment rates, private debt metrics,
loans and debt securities relative to gross domestic product (GDP), and
government gross debt as a percentage of GDP. Granger Causality
analysis has been applied for understanding the relationship between
trade partnerships and economic stability index. Spanning from 2000 to
2021, this comprehensive analysis offers valuable insights into economic
trends in both nations. The findings reveal similar levels of economic
stability on average, with Tajikistan showing slightly higher stability since
2013 due to demographic factors and shifts in trade ratios to GDP.
Kyrgyzstan averages a stability score of 63 percent, marginally lower than
Tajikistan’s 65 percent. The trade partnerships enhance the economic
stability of Kyrgyzstan, while there is no significant relationship for the
economy of Tajikistan. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan should be keen on following
BRI projects for its economic stability. |
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| ISSN: | 2410-9681 |