Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025–2030
Australia’s National Lung Cancer Screening Program will commence in July 2025, targeted at individuals aged 50–70 years with a 30 pack-year smoking history (equivalent to 20 cigarettes per day for 30 years), who either currently smoke or have quit within the past 10 years. We forecasted the number o...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Sax Institute
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Public Health Research & Practice |
| Online Access: | https://www.phrp.com.au/issues/estimates-of-eligible-population-for-targeted-lung-cancer-screening/ |
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| author | Stephen Wade Preston Ngo Yue He Michael Caruana Julia Steinberg Qingwei Luo Michael David Annette McWilliams Kwun M Fong Karen Canfell Marianne F Weber |
| author_facet | Stephen Wade Preston Ngo Yue He Michael Caruana Julia Steinberg Qingwei Luo Michael David Annette McWilliams Kwun M Fong Karen Canfell Marianne F Weber |
| author_sort | Stephen Wade |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Australia’s National Lung Cancer Screening Program will commence in July 2025, targeted at individuals aged 50–70 years with a 30 pack-year smoking history (equivalent to 20 cigarettes per day for 30 years), who either currently smoke or have quit within the past 10 years. We forecasted the number of screening-eligible individuals over the first 5 years of the program using data from the 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Survey and the 2022 Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections. Multiple imputation integrated with predictive modelling of future or unmeasured smoking characteristics was used to address missing data and, simultaneously, to project individuals’ smoking histories to 2030. In 2025, 930 500 (95% prediction interval 852 200–1 019 000) individuals were estimated to be eligible, with the number meeting the criteria declining slightly during the years 2025–2030 in all Australian jurisdictions. Overall, 26–30% of those eligible will have quit smoking, and 70–74% will currently smoke. These estimates can be used in resource planning and as an indicative denominator to track participation rates for the program over time. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c78a5009fe644adca43d6c3a6d670f91 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2204-2091 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Sax Institute |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Public Health Research & Practice |
| spelling | doaj-art-c78a5009fe644adca43d6c3a6d670f912024-12-19T03:23:18ZengSax InstitutePublic Health Research & Practice2204-20912024-12-0110.17061/phrp34342410Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025–2030Stephen Wade0Preston Ngo1Yue He2Michael Caruana3Julia Steinberg4Qingwei Luo5Michael David6Annette McWilliams7Kwun M Fong8Karen Canfell 9Marianne F Weber10The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, AustraliaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, AustraliaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, AustraliaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, AustraliaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, AustraliaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, AustraliaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia; School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, AustraliaFiona Stanley Hospital, Perth, WA, AustraliaPrince Charles Hospital, Chermside, QLD, Australia; The University of Queensland Thoracic Research Centre, The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, QLD, AustraliaSchool of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Woolloomooloo, NSW, AustraliaAustralia’s National Lung Cancer Screening Program will commence in July 2025, targeted at individuals aged 50–70 years with a 30 pack-year smoking history (equivalent to 20 cigarettes per day for 30 years), who either currently smoke or have quit within the past 10 years. We forecasted the number of screening-eligible individuals over the first 5 years of the program using data from the 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Survey and the 2022 Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections. Multiple imputation integrated with predictive modelling of future or unmeasured smoking characteristics was used to address missing data and, simultaneously, to project individuals’ smoking histories to 2030. In 2025, 930 500 (95% prediction interval 852 200–1 019 000) individuals were estimated to be eligible, with the number meeting the criteria declining slightly during the years 2025–2030 in all Australian jurisdictions. Overall, 26–30% of those eligible will have quit smoking, and 70–74% will currently smoke. These estimates can be used in resource planning and as an indicative denominator to track participation rates for the program over time.https://www.phrp.com.au/issues/estimates-of-eligible-population-for-targeted-lung-cancer-screening/ |
| spellingShingle | Stephen Wade Preston Ngo Yue He Michael Caruana Julia Steinberg Qingwei Luo Michael David Annette McWilliams Kwun M Fong Karen Canfell Marianne F Weber Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025–2030 Public Health Research & Practice |
| title | Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025–2030 |
| title_full | Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025–2030 |
| title_fullStr | Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025–2030 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025–2030 |
| title_short | Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025–2030 |
| title_sort | estimates of the eligible population for australia s targeted national lung cancer screening program 2025 2030 |
| url | https://www.phrp.com.au/issues/estimates-of-eligible-population-for-targeted-lung-cancer-screening/ |
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