Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt Modeling
The northward expansion of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> (<i>S. alterniflora</i>) poses a profound ecological threat to coastal ecosystems and biodiversity along China’s coastline. This invasive species exhibits strong adaptability to colder climates, facilitating its potentia...
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MDPI AG
2025-03-01
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| author | Qi Wang Guoli Cui Haojie Liu Xiao Huang Xiangming Xiao Ming Wang Mingming Jia Dehua Mao Xiaoyan Li Yihua Xiao Huiying Li |
| author_facet | Qi Wang Guoli Cui Haojie Liu Xiao Huang Xiangming Xiao Ming Wang Mingming Jia Dehua Mao Xiaoyan Li Yihua Xiao Huiying Li |
| author_sort | Qi Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The northward expansion of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> (<i>S. alterniflora</i>) poses a profound ecological threat to coastal ecosystems and biodiversity along China’s coastline. This invasive species exhibits strong adaptability to colder climates, facilitating its potential spread into northern regions and underscoring the urgent need for a nuanced understanding of its spatial distribution and invasion risks to inform evidence-based ecosystem management strategies. This study employed multi-temporal Sentinel-1/2 imagery (2016–2022) to map and predict the spread of <i>S. alterniflora</i> in Bohai Bay. An object-based random forest classification achieved an overall accuracy above 92% (κ = 0.978). Over the six-year period, the <i>S. alterniflora</i> distribution decreased from 46.60 km<sup>2</sup> in 2016 to 12.56 km<sup>2</sup> in 2022, reflecting an annual reduction of approximately 5.67 km<sup>2</sup>. This decline primarily resulted from targeted eradication efforts, including physical removal, chemical treatments, and biological competition strategies. Despite this local reduction, MaxEnt modeling suggests that climate trends and habitat suitability continue to support potential northward expansion, particularly in high-risk areas such as the Binhai New District, the Shandong Yellow River Delta, and the Laizhou Bay tributary estuary. Key environmental drivers of <i>S. alterniflora</i> distribution include the maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, isothermality, sea surface temperature, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, and soil type. High-risk invasion zones, covering about 95.65 km<sup>2</sup>. These findings illuminate the spatial dynamics of <i>S. alterniflora</i> and offer scientific guidance for evidence-based restoration and management strategies, ensuring the protection of coastal ecosystems and fostering sustainable development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c51a0e3c3d124176b418bda65f6b3bbd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj-art-c51a0e3c3d124176b418bda65f6b3bbd2025-08-20T03:43:54ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922025-03-0117697510.3390/rs17060975Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt ModelingQi Wang0Guoli Cui1Haojie Liu2Xiao Huang3Xiangming Xiao4Ming Wang5Mingming Jia6Dehua Mao7Xiaoyan Li8Yihua Xiao9Huiying Li10School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, ChinaSchool of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, ChinaSchool of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, ChinaDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USADepartment of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Earth Observation and Modeling, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USACollege of Resources and Environment, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Black Soils Conservation and Utilization, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, ChinaCollege of Earth Sciences, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, ChinaSchool of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, ChinaSchool of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, ChinaThe northward expansion of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> (<i>S. alterniflora</i>) poses a profound ecological threat to coastal ecosystems and biodiversity along China’s coastline. This invasive species exhibits strong adaptability to colder climates, facilitating its potential spread into northern regions and underscoring the urgent need for a nuanced understanding of its spatial distribution and invasion risks to inform evidence-based ecosystem management strategies. This study employed multi-temporal Sentinel-1/2 imagery (2016–2022) to map and predict the spread of <i>S. alterniflora</i> in Bohai Bay. An object-based random forest classification achieved an overall accuracy above 92% (κ = 0.978). Over the six-year period, the <i>S. alterniflora</i> distribution decreased from 46.60 km<sup>2</sup> in 2016 to 12.56 km<sup>2</sup> in 2022, reflecting an annual reduction of approximately 5.67 km<sup>2</sup>. This decline primarily resulted from targeted eradication efforts, including physical removal, chemical treatments, and biological competition strategies. Despite this local reduction, MaxEnt modeling suggests that climate trends and habitat suitability continue to support potential northward expansion, particularly in high-risk areas such as the Binhai New District, the Shandong Yellow River Delta, and the Laizhou Bay tributary estuary. Key environmental drivers of <i>S. alterniflora</i> distribution include the maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, isothermality, sea surface temperature, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, and soil type. High-risk invasion zones, covering about 95.65 km<sup>2</sup>. These findings illuminate the spatial dynamics of <i>S. alterniflora</i> and offer scientific guidance for evidence-based restoration and management strategies, ensuring the protection of coastal ecosystems and fostering sustainable development.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/6/975<i>S. alterniflora</i>Bohai Bayobject-based random forestMaxEntSentinel-1/2 |
| spellingShingle | Qi Wang Guoli Cui Haojie Liu Xiao Huang Xiangming Xiao Ming Wang Mingming Jia Dehua Mao Xiaoyan Li Yihua Xiao Huiying Li Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt Modeling Remote Sensing <i>S. alterniflora</i> Bohai Bay object-based random forest MaxEnt Sentinel-1/2 |
| title | Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt Modeling |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt Modeling |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt Modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt Modeling |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt Modeling |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal dynamics and potential distribution prediction of i spartina alterniflora i invasion in bohai bay based on sentinel time series data and maxent modeling |
| topic | <i>S. alterniflora</i> Bohai Bay object-based random forest MaxEnt Sentinel-1/2 |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/6/975 |
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