How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination
Abstract Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2024-12-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-024-10243-0 |
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| author | Manjari Shankar Anna-Maria Hartner Callum R. K. Arnold Ezra Gayawan Hyolim Kang Jong-Hoon Kim Gemma Nedjati Gilani Anne Cori Han Fu Mark Jit Rudzani Muloiwa Allison Portnoy Caroline Trotter Katy A. M. Gaythorpe |
| author_facet | Manjari Shankar Anna-Maria Hartner Callum R. K. Arnold Ezra Gayawan Hyolim Kang Jong-Hoon Kim Gemma Nedjati Gilani Anne Cori Han Fu Mark Jit Rudzani Muloiwa Allison Portnoy Caroline Trotter Katy A. M. Gaythorpe |
| author_sort | Manjari Shankar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c311fedd430d494dba5274dd7237761f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-c311fedd430d494dba5274dd7237761f2024-12-01T12:11:54ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342024-12-0124111210.1186/s12879-024-10243-0How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccinationManjari Shankar0Anna-Maria Hartner1Callum R. K. Arnold2Ezra Gayawan3Hyolim Kang4Jong-Hoon Kim5Gemma Nedjati Gilani6Anne Cori7Han Fu8Mark Jit9Rudzani Muloiwa10Allison Portnoy11Caroline Trotter12Katy A. M. Gaythorpe13Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonCenter for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State UniversityDepartment of Statistics, Federal University of TechnologyDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Epidemiology, Public Health, Impact, International Vaccine InstituteMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Paediatrics & Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Red Cross War Memorial Children’s HospitalDepartment of Global Health, Boston University School of Public HealthMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonAbstract Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-024-10243-0VaccinationImpactOutbreakImmunisationMathematical modellingVaccine |
| spellingShingle | Manjari Shankar Anna-Maria Hartner Callum R. K. Arnold Ezra Gayawan Hyolim Kang Jong-Hoon Kim Gemma Nedjati Gilani Anne Cori Han Fu Mark Jit Rudzani Muloiwa Allison Portnoy Caroline Trotter Katy A. M. Gaythorpe How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination BMC Infectious Diseases Vaccination Impact Outbreak Immunisation Mathematical modelling Vaccine |
| title | How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination |
| title_full | How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination |
| title_fullStr | How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination |
| title_full_unstemmed | How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination |
| title_short | How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination |
| title_sort | how mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination |
| topic | Vaccination Impact Outbreak Immunisation Mathematical modelling Vaccine |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-024-10243-0 |
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