Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity
Abstract Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest‐generation models have high effective climate sensit...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004901 |
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| _version_ | 1846110214965690368 |
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| author | Ranjini Swaminathan Jacob Schewe Jeremy Walton Klaus Zimmermann Colin Jones Richard A. Betts Chantelle Burton Chris D. Jones Matthias Mengel Christopher P. O. Reyer Andrew G. Turner Katja Weigel |
| author_facet | Ranjini Swaminathan Jacob Schewe Jeremy Walton Klaus Zimmermann Colin Jones Richard A. Betts Chantelle Burton Chris D. Jones Matthias Mengel Christopher P. O. Reyer Andrew G. Turner Katja Weigel |
| author_sort | Ranjini Swaminathan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest‐generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these “hot” models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. Whether this would improve regional impact assessments, or make them worse, is unclear. Here we show there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in a number of important climatic drivers of regional impacts. Analyzing heavy rainfall events, meteorological drought, and fire weather in different regions, we find little or no significant correlation with EffCS for most regions and climatic drivers. Even when a correlation is found, internal variability and processes unrelated to EffCS have similar effects on projected changes in the climatic drivers as EffCS. Model selection based solely on EffCS appears to be unjustified and may neglect realistic impacts, leading to an underestimation of climate risks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c18ca4bce7804fa2a5d4f306a8bbe31b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-c18ca4bce7804fa2a5d4f306a8bbe31b2024-12-24T14:06:58ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-12-011212n/an/a10.1029/2024EF004901Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate SensitivityRanjini Swaminathan0Jacob Schewe1Jeremy Walton2Klaus Zimmermann3Colin Jones4Richard A. Betts5Chantelle Burton6Chris D. Jones7Matthias Mengel8Christopher P. O. Reyer9Andrew G. Turner10Katja Weigel11Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Earth Observation University of Reading Reading UKPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services Exeter UKSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Rossby Centre Norrköping SwedenNational Centre for Atmospheric Science and School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UKMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services Exeter UKMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services Exeter UKPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyNational Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UKUniversity of Bremen Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP) Bremen GermanyAbstract Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest‐generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these “hot” models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. Whether this would improve regional impact assessments, or make them worse, is unclear. Here we show there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in a number of important climatic drivers of regional impacts. Analyzing heavy rainfall events, meteorological drought, and fire weather in different regions, we find little or no significant correlation with EffCS for most regions and climatic drivers. Even when a correlation is found, internal variability and processes unrelated to EffCS have similar effects on projected changes in the climatic drivers as EffCS. Model selection based solely on EffCS appears to be unjustified and may neglect realistic impacts, leading to an underestimation of climate risks.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004901climate modelsclimate sensitivityregional impactsfuture projections |
| spellingShingle | Ranjini Swaminathan Jacob Schewe Jeremy Walton Klaus Zimmermann Colin Jones Richard A. Betts Chantelle Burton Chris D. Jones Matthias Mengel Christopher P. O. Reyer Andrew G. Turner Katja Weigel Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity Earth's Future climate models climate sensitivity regional impacts future projections |
| title | Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity |
| title_full | Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity |
| title_fullStr | Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity |
| title_short | Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity |
| title_sort | regional impacts poorly constrained by climate sensitivity |
| topic | climate models climate sensitivity regional impacts future projections |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004901 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ranjiniswaminathan regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT jacobschewe regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT jeremywalton regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT klauszimmermann regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT colinjones regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT richardabetts regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT chantelleburton regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT chrisdjones regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT matthiasmengel regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT christopherporeyer regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT andrewgturner regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity AT katjaweigel regionalimpactspoorlyconstrainedbyclimatesensitivity |