The role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of COVID-19: a case study in Thailand
Abstract This article addresses the critical need for understanding the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission and the role of booster vaccinations in managing the pandemic. Despite widespread vaccination efforts, the emergence of new variants and the waning of immunity over time necessitate more effecti...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80390-6 |
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| author | Puntipa Pongsumpun Puntani Pongsumpun I-Ming Tang Jiraporn Lamwong |
| author_facet | Puntipa Pongsumpun Puntani Pongsumpun I-Ming Tang Jiraporn Lamwong |
| author_sort | Puntipa Pongsumpun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This article addresses the critical need for understanding the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission and the role of booster vaccinations in managing the pandemic. Despite widespread vaccination efforts, the emergence of new variants and the waning of immunity over time necessitate more effective strategies. A fractional-order mathematical model using Caputo-Fabrizio derivatives was developed to analyze the impact of booster doses, symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, and quarantine measures. The model incorporates real epidemic data from Thailand and includes a sensitivity analysis of parameters influencing disease spread. Numerical results indicate that booster vaccinations significantly reduce transmission rates, and the model’s predictions align well with the observed data. The basic reproduction number was determined to evaluate disease control, showing that a sustained vaccination campaign, including booster doses, is essential to maintaining immunity and controlling future outbreaks. The findings underscore the importance of ongoing vaccination efforts and provide a robust framework for policymakers to design effective strategies for pandemic control. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bdcb8a487c5845a9b823133cab79eedd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-bdcb8a487c5845a9b823133cab79eedd2025-01-12T12:19:30ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115112710.1038/s41598-024-80390-6The role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of COVID-19: a case study in ThailandPuntipa Pongsumpun0Puntani Pongsumpun1I-Ming Tang2Jiraporn Lamwong3Department of Mathematics, School of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology LadkrabangDepartment of Mathematics, School of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology LadkrabangDepartment of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol UniversityDepartment of Applied Basic Subjects, Thatphanom College, Nakhon Phanom UniversityAbstract This article addresses the critical need for understanding the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission and the role of booster vaccinations in managing the pandemic. Despite widespread vaccination efforts, the emergence of new variants and the waning of immunity over time necessitate more effective strategies. A fractional-order mathematical model using Caputo-Fabrizio derivatives was developed to analyze the impact of booster doses, symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, and quarantine measures. The model incorporates real epidemic data from Thailand and includes a sensitivity analysis of parameters influencing disease spread. Numerical results indicate that booster vaccinations significantly reduce transmission rates, and the model’s predictions align well with the observed data. The basic reproduction number was determined to evaluate disease control, showing that a sustained vaccination campaign, including booster doses, is essential to maintaining immunity and controlling future outbreaks. The findings underscore the importance of ongoing vaccination efforts and provide a robust framework for policymakers to design effective strategies for pandemic control.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80390-6COVID-19VaccinationCaputo-Fabrizio derivativesModel fittingGlobal stabilityExistence and uniqueness |
| spellingShingle | Puntipa Pongsumpun Puntani Pongsumpun I-Ming Tang Jiraporn Lamwong The role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of COVID-19: a case study in Thailand Scientific Reports COVID-19 Vaccination Caputo-Fabrizio derivatives Model fitting Global stability Existence and uniqueness |
| title | The role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of COVID-19: a case study in Thailand |
| title_full | The role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of COVID-19: a case study in Thailand |
| title_fullStr | The role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of COVID-19: a case study in Thailand |
| title_full_unstemmed | The role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of COVID-19: a case study in Thailand |
| title_short | The role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of COVID-19: a case study in Thailand |
| title_sort | role of a vaccine booster for a fractional order model of the dynamic of covid 19 a case study in thailand |
| topic | COVID-19 Vaccination Caputo-Fabrizio derivatives Model fitting Global stability Existence and uniqueness |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80390-6 |
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