Monthly Prediction of Pine Stress Probability Caused by Pine Shoot Beetle Infestation Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Data

Due to the significant threat to forest health posed by beetle infestations on pine trees, timely and accurate predictions are crucial for effective forest management. This study developed a pine tree stress probability prediction workflow based on monthly cloud-free Sentinel-2 composite images to a...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Wen Jia, Shili Meng, Xianlin Qin, Yong Pang, Honggan Wu, Jia Jin, Yunteng Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-12-01
Series:Remote Sensing
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/23/4590
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1846123859801014272
author Wen Jia
Shili Meng
Xianlin Qin
Yong Pang
Honggan Wu
Jia Jin
Yunteng Zhang
author_facet Wen Jia
Shili Meng
Xianlin Qin
Yong Pang
Honggan Wu
Jia Jin
Yunteng Zhang
author_sort Wen Jia
collection DOAJ
description Due to the significant threat to forest health posed by beetle infestations on pine trees, timely and accurate predictions are crucial for effective forest management. This study developed a pine tree stress probability prediction workflow based on monthly cloud-free Sentinel-2 composite images to address this challenge. First, representative pine tree stress samples were selected by combining long-term forest disturbance data using the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm with high-resolution remote sensing imagery. Monthly cloud-free Sentinel-2 images were then composited using the Multifactor Weighting (MFW) method. Finally, a Random Forest (RF) algorithm was employed to build the pine tree stress probability model and analyze the importance of spectral, topographic, and meteorological features. The model achieved prediction precisions of 0.876, 0.900, and 0.883, and overall accuracies of 89.5%, 91.6%, and 90.2% for January, February, and March 2023, respectively. The results indicate that spectral features, such as band reflectance and vegetation indices, ranked among the top five in importance (i.e., SWIR2, SWIR1, Red band, NDVI, and NBR). They more effectively reflected changes in canopy pigments and leaf moisture content under stress compared with topographic and meteorological features. Additionally, combining long-term stress disturbance data with high-resolution imagery to select training samples improved their spatial and temporal representativeness, enhancing the model’s predictive capability. This approach provides valuable insights for improving forest health monitoring and uncovers opportunities to predict future beetle outbreaks and take preventive measures.
format Article
id doaj-art-bd386a62d5b34d67adaa5b1ab1c320ca
institution Kabale University
issn 2072-4292
language English
publishDate 2024-12-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Remote Sensing
spelling doaj-art-bd386a62d5b34d67adaa5b1ab1c320ca2024-12-13T16:31:22ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922024-12-011623459010.3390/rs16234590Monthly Prediction of Pine Stress Probability Caused by Pine Shoot Beetle Infestation Using Sentinel-2 Satellite DataWen Jia0Shili Meng1Xianlin Qin2Yong Pang3Honggan Wu4Jia Jin5Yunteng Zhang6Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, ChinaInstitute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, ChinaInstitute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, ChinaInstitute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, ChinaInstitute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, ChinaSchool of Artificial Intelligence, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaFaculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaDue to the significant threat to forest health posed by beetle infestations on pine trees, timely and accurate predictions are crucial for effective forest management. This study developed a pine tree stress probability prediction workflow based on monthly cloud-free Sentinel-2 composite images to address this challenge. First, representative pine tree stress samples were selected by combining long-term forest disturbance data using the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm with high-resolution remote sensing imagery. Monthly cloud-free Sentinel-2 images were then composited using the Multifactor Weighting (MFW) method. Finally, a Random Forest (RF) algorithm was employed to build the pine tree stress probability model and analyze the importance of spectral, topographic, and meteorological features. The model achieved prediction precisions of 0.876, 0.900, and 0.883, and overall accuracies of 89.5%, 91.6%, and 90.2% for January, February, and March 2023, respectively. The results indicate that spectral features, such as band reflectance and vegetation indices, ranked among the top five in importance (i.e., SWIR2, SWIR1, Red band, NDVI, and NBR). They more effectively reflected changes in canopy pigments and leaf moisture content under stress compared with topographic and meteorological features. Additionally, combining long-term stress disturbance data with high-resolution imagery to select training samples improved their spatial and temporal representativeness, enhancing the model’s predictive capability. This approach provides valuable insights for improving forest health monitoring and uncovers opportunities to predict future beetle outbreaks and take preventive measures.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/23/4590forest healthplant diseases and pestsoutbreak predictionpine shoot beetleSentinel-2forest disturbance
spellingShingle Wen Jia
Shili Meng
Xianlin Qin
Yong Pang
Honggan Wu
Jia Jin
Yunteng Zhang
Monthly Prediction of Pine Stress Probability Caused by Pine Shoot Beetle Infestation Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Data
Remote Sensing
forest health
plant diseases and pests
outbreak prediction
pine shoot beetle
Sentinel-2
forest disturbance
title Monthly Prediction of Pine Stress Probability Caused by Pine Shoot Beetle Infestation Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Data
title_full Monthly Prediction of Pine Stress Probability Caused by Pine Shoot Beetle Infestation Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Data
title_fullStr Monthly Prediction of Pine Stress Probability Caused by Pine Shoot Beetle Infestation Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Data
title_full_unstemmed Monthly Prediction of Pine Stress Probability Caused by Pine Shoot Beetle Infestation Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Data
title_short Monthly Prediction of Pine Stress Probability Caused by Pine Shoot Beetle Infestation Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Data
title_sort monthly prediction of pine stress probability caused by pine shoot beetle infestation using sentinel 2 satellite data
topic forest health
plant diseases and pests
outbreak prediction
pine shoot beetle
Sentinel-2
forest disturbance
url https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/23/4590
work_keys_str_mv AT wenjia monthlypredictionofpinestressprobabilitycausedbypineshootbeetleinfestationusingsentinel2satellitedata
AT shilimeng monthlypredictionofpinestressprobabilitycausedbypineshootbeetleinfestationusingsentinel2satellitedata
AT xianlinqin monthlypredictionofpinestressprobabilitycausedbypineshootbeetleinfestationusingsentinel2satellitedata
AT yongpang monthlypredictionofpinestressprobabilitycausedbypineshootbeetleinfestationusingsentinel2satellitedata
AT hongganwu monthlypredictionofpinestressprobabilitycausedbypineshootbeetleinfestationusingsentinel2satellitedata
AT jiajin monthlypredictionofpinestressprobabilitycausedbypineshootbeetleinfestationusingsentinel2satellitedata
AT yuntengzhang monthlypredictionofpinestressprobabilitycausedbypineshootbeetleinfestationusingsentinel2satellitedata