The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective

The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) models fo...

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Main Authors: Alexandra CHEPTIS, Cristina BEJENARU, Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA, Alin-Ioan VID
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: General Association of Economists from Romania 2025-03-01
Series:Theoretical and Applied Economics
Subjects:
Online Access: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1813.pdf
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author Alexandra CHEPTIS
Cristina BEJENARU
Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA
Alin-Ioan VID
author_facet Alexandra CHEPTIS
Cristina BEJENARU
Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA
Alin-Ioan VID
author_sort Alexandra CHEPTIS
collection DOAJ
description The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) models for characterizing business cycles, and the Granger causality technique is used to analyze the relationship between external shocks and economic growth, separately during financial and pandemic crises. The results indicated that, in the case of Romania, the global financial crisis has a longer period of negative growth rates, but a faster recovery from health crisis. It is also noted that the Czech Republic and Hungary have a more stable economic evolution over time. In addition, the causality test indicates unidirectional causality between external factors and the GDP growth rate during financial and pandemic crises.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 1841-8678
1844-0029
language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher General Association of Economists from Romania
record_format Article
series Theoretical and Applied Economics
spelling doaj-art-bc6f0dc9e8f843f6943664e9facef9c12025-08-20T03:52:57ZengGeneral Association of Economists from RomaniaTheoretical and Applied Economics1841-86781844-00292025-03-01XXXII112513418418678The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspectiveAlexandra CHEPTIS0Cristina BEJENARU1Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA2Alin-Ioan VID3 The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) models for characterizing business cycles, and the Granger causality technique is used to analyze the relationship between external shocks and economic growth, separately during financial and pandemic crises. The results indicated that, in the case of Romania, the global financial crisis has a longer period of negative growth rates, but a faster recovery from health crisis. It is also noted that the Czech Republic and Hungary have a more stable economic evolution over time. In addition, the causality test indicates unidirectional causality between external factors and the GDP growth rate during financial and pandemic crises. http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1813.pdf external shockseconomic growthcovid-19 pandemicfinancial crisisgranger causality
spellingShingle Alexandra CHEPTIS
Cristina BEJENARU
Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA
Alin-Ioan VID
The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
Theoretical and Applied Economics
external shocks
economic growth
covid-19 pandemic
financial crisis
granger causality
title The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
title_full The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
title_fullStr The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
title_full_unstemmed The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
title_short The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
title_sort relationship between external factors and economic growth differences between the global financial crisis and the covid 19 pandemic from a granger causality perspective
topic external shocks
economic growth
covid-19 pandemic
financial crisis
granger causality
url http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1813.pdf
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