The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) models fo...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
General Association of Economists from Romania
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | Theoretical and Applied Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1813.pdf
|
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849312741671567360 |
|---|---|
| author | Alexandra CHEPTIS Cristina BEJENARU Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA Alin-Ioan VID |
| author_facet | Alexandra CHEPTIS Cristina BEJENARU Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA Alin-Ioan VID |
| author_sort | Alexandra CHEPTIS |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic
growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex
analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching
Autoregressive (MS-AR) models for characterizing business cycles, and the Granger causality
technique is used to analyze the relationship between external shocks and economic growth,
separately during financial and pandemic crises. The results indicated that, in the case of Romania,
the global financial crisis has a longer period of negative growth rates, but a faster recovery from
health crisis. It is also noted that the Czech Republic and Hungary have a more stable economic
evolution over time. In addition, the causality test indicates unidirectional causality between
external factors and the GDP growth rate during financial and pandemic crises. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bc6f0dc9e8f843f6943664e9facef9c1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1841-8678 1844-0029 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | General Association of Economists from Romania |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Theoretical and Applied Economics |
| spelling | doaj-art-bc6f0dc9e8f843f6943664e9facef9c12025-08-20T03:52:57ZengGeneral Association of Economists from RomaniaTheoretical and Applied Economics1841-86781844-00292025-03-01XXXII112513418418678The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspectiveAlexandra CHEPTIS0Cristina BEJENARU1Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA2Alin-Ioan VID3 The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) models for characterizing business cycles, and the Granger causality technique is used to analyze the relationship between external shocks and economic growth, separately during financial and pandemic crises. The results indicated that, in the case of Romania, the global financial crisis has a longer period of negative growth rates, but a faster recovery from health crisis. It is also noted that the Czech Republic and Hungary have a more stable economic evolution over time. In addition, the causality test indicates unidirectional causality between external factors and the GDP growth rate during financial and pandemic crises. http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1813.pdf external shockseconomic growthcovid-19 pandemicfinancial crisisgranger causality |
| spellingShingle | Alexandra CHEPTIS Cristina BEJENARU Miruna-Mihaela VASILCA Alin-Ioan VID The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective Theoretical and Applied Economics external shocks economic growth covid-19 pandemic financial crisis granger causality |
| title | The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective |
| title_full | The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective |
| title_fullStr | The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective |
| title_short | The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective |
| title_sort | relationship between external factors and economic growth differences between the global financial crisis and the covid 19 pandemic from a granger causality perspective |
| topic | external shocks economic growth covid-19 pandemic financial crisis granger causality |
| url |
http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1813.pdf
|
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alexandracheptis therelationshipbetweenexternalfactorsandeconomicgrowthdifferencesbetweentheglobalfinancialcrisisandthecovid19pandemicfromagrangercausalityperspective AT cristinabejenaru therelationshipbetweenexternalfactorsandeconomicgrowthdifferencesbetweentheglobalfinancialcrisisandthecovid19pandemicfromagrangercausalityperspective AT mirunamihaelavasilca therelationshipbetweenexternalfactorsandeconomicgrowthdifferencesbetweentheglobalfinancialcrisisandthecovid19pandemicfromagrangercausalityperspective AT alinioanvid therelationshipbetweenexternalfactorsandeconomicgrowthdifferencesbetweentheglobalfinancialcrisisandthecovid19pandemicfromagrangercausalityperspective AT alexandracheptis relationshipbetweenexternalfactorsandeconomicgrowthdifferencesbetweentheglobalfinancialcrisisandthecovid19pandemicfromagrangercausalityperspective AT cristinabejenaru relationshipbetweenexternalfactorsandeconomicgrowthdifferencesbetweentheglobalfinancialcrisisandthecovid19pandemicfromagrangercausalityperspective AT mirunamihaelavasilca relationshipbetweenexternalfactorsandeconomicgrowthdifferencesbetweentheglobalfinancialcrisisandthecovid19pandemicfromagrangercausalityperspective AT alinioanvid relationshipbetweenexternalfactorsandeconomicgrowthdifferencesbetweentheglobalfinancialcrisisandthecovid19pandemicfromagrangercausalityperspective |