The relationship between external factors and economic growth: Differences between the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic from a Granger causality perspective
The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) models fo...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
General Association of Economists from Romania
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | Theoretical and Applied Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1813.pdf
|
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | The paper investigates the causal relationship between external factors and economic
growth in three countries from Central and Eastern Europe and contains a series of complex
analyses on the study of typologies of economic crises. The study includes Markov-Switching
Autoregressive (MS-AR) models for characterizing business cycles, and the Granger causality
technique is used to analyze the relationship between external shocks and economic growth,
separately during financial and pandemic crises. The results indicated that, in the case of Romania,
the global financial crisis has a longer period of negative growth rates, but a faster recovery from
health crisis. It is also noted that the Czech Republic and Hungary have a more stable economic
evolution over time. In addition, the causality test indicates unidirectional causality between
external factors and the GDP growth rate during financial and pandemic crises. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1841-8678 1844-0029 |