Verification of EC Model's Effect to Forecast Precipitation in Beipan River Basin
In order to test the precipitation forecast of the European central numerical model (hereinafter referred to as EC model) in the Beipan River Basin,this paper tests the forecast effect of different starting times and the overall forecast effect of 2020 flood season for an extreme precipitation proce...
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Editorial Office of Pearl River
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
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| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2021.05.002 |
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| author | KONG Xiangbo XIA Xiaoling CU Yuanke TANG Yanjing SONG Wanli LIAO Bo |
| author_facet | KONG Xiangbo XIA Xiaoling CU Yuanke TANG Yanjing SONG Wanli LIAO Bo |
| author_sort | KONG Xiangbo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In order to test the precipitation forecast of the European central numerical model (hereinafter referred to as EC model) in the Beipan River Basin,this paper tests the forecast effect of different starting times and the overall forecast effect of 2020 flood season for an extreme precipitation process in the Beipan River Basin.The results are as follows:①For the prediction of 500 hPa circulation field,rainfall area,correlation coefficient between EC rainfall prediction and actual rainfall,and TS score of rainstorm,the shortened the prediction time is,the better the prediction effect will be.The effect is the most obvious for the maximum rainfall forecast adjustment,and the rainfall after adjustment is closer to the actual rainfall.The EC model is also applicable to forecast heavy rain.②In 2020,the forecast effect of no rain,light rain and moderate rain is better than that of heavy rain and rainstorm.EC model is almost not available to forecast severe rainstorm.③The rainstorm forecast effect differs with different basins,and the rainstorm forecast effect of Dongqing Basin is better than that of other basins.Therefore,it can be concluded that the correlation coefficient of EC model in the whole Beipan River Basin is about 0.9,and the ratio of the standard deviation of prediction to that of observation is 0.77,which indicates that EC model has good prediction effect for the trend of precipitation change,but there are some deviations in the area and magnitude.So,the forecast results can be applied after being corrected. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bbd9240e09a14d8e88640523e39be4a0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-bbd9240e09a14d8e88640523e39be4a02025-01-15T02:28:59ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352021-01-014247647599Verification of EC Model's Effect to Forecast Precipitation in Beipan River BasinKONG XiangboXIA XiaolingCU YuankeTANG YanjingSONG WanliLIAO BoIn order to test the precipitation forecast of the European central numerical model (hereinafter referred to as EC model) in the Beipan River Basin,this paper tests the forecast effect of different starting times and the overall forecast effect of 2020 flood season for an extreme precipitation process in the Beipan River Basin.The results are as follows:①For the prediction of 500 hPa circulation field,rainfall area,correlation coefficient between EC rainfall prediction and actual rainfall,and TS score of rainstorm,the shortened the prediction time is,the better the prediction effect will be.The effect is the most obvious for the maximum rainfall forecast adjustment,and the rainfall after adjustment is closer to the actual rainfall.The EC model is also applicable to forecast heavy rain.②In 2020,the forecast effect of no rain,light rain and moderate rain is better than that of heavy rain and rainstorm.EC model is almost not available to forecast severe rainstorm.③The rainstorm forecast effect differs with different basins,and the rainstorm forecast effect of Dongqing Basin is better than that of other basins.Therefore,it can be concluded that the correlation coefficient of EC model in the whole Beipan River Basin is about 0.9,and the ratio of the standard deviation of prediction to that of observation is 0.77,which indicates that EC model has good prediction effect for the trend of precipitation change,but there are some deviations in the area and magnitude.So,the forecast results can be applied after being corrected.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2021.05.002European central numerical model (EC model)precipitationtestBeipan River Basin |
| spellingShingle | KONG Xiangbo XIA Xiaoling CU Yuanke TANG Yanjing SONG Wanli LIAO Bo Verification of EC Model's Effect to Forecast Precipitation in Beipan River Basin Renmin Zhujiang European central numerical model (EC model) precipitation test Beipan River Basin |
| title | Verification of EC Model's Effect to Forecast Precipitation in Beipan River Basin |
| title_full | Verification of EC Model's Effect to Forecast Precipitation in Beipan River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Verification of EC Model's Effect to Forecast Precipitation in Beipan River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Verification of EC Model's Effect to Forecast Precipitation in Beipan River Basin |
| title_short | Verification of EC Model's Effect to Forecast Precipitation in Beipan River Basin |
| title_sort | verification of ec model s effect to forecast precipitation in beipan river basin |
| topic | European central numerical model (EC model) precipitation test Beipan River Basin |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2021.05.002 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kongxiangbo verificationofecmodelseffecttoforecastprecipitationinbeipanriverbasin AT xiaxiaoling verificationofecmodelseffecttoforecastprecipitationinbeipanriverbasin AT cuyuanke verificationofecmodelseffecttoforecastprecipitationinbeipanriverbasin AT tangyanjing verificationofecmodelseffecttoforecastprecipitationinbeipanriverbasin AT songwanli verificationofecmodelseffecttoforecastprecipitationinbeipanriverbasin AT liaobo verificationofecmodelseffecttoforecastprecipitationinbeipanriverbasin |