Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission

The planetary boundary framework proposes ‘safe’ boundaries, but these boundaries are not necessarily ‘just’. Hence, we ask: How has the Earth Commission defined just boundaries building on the concept of minimizing significant harm and how many people are currently exposed to harm above the safe an...

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Main Authors: Joyeeta Gupta, Jesse F. Abrams, David Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Kristi L. Ebi, Paola Fezzigna, Giuliana Gentile, Lauren Gifford, Syezlin Hasan, Lisa Jacobson, Aljoscha Karg, Steven Lade, Tim Lenton, Diana Liverman, Awaz Mohamed, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Johan Rockström, Ben Stewart-Koster, Detlef van Vuuren, Peter Verburg, Raimon C. Ylla-Català, Caroline Zimm
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-08-01
Series:Earth System Governance
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811625000291
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author Joyeeta Gupta
Jesse F. Abrams
David Armstrong McKay
Xuemei Bai
Kristi L. Ebi
Paola Fezzigna
Giuliana Gentile
Lauren Gifford
Syezlin Hasan
Lisa Jacobson
Aljoscha Karg
Steven Lade
Tim Lenton
Diana Liverman
Awaz Mohamed
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
David Obura
Johan Rockström
Ben Stewart-Koster
Detlef van Vuuren
Peter Verburg
Raimon C. Ylla-Català
Caroline Zimm
author_facet Joyeeta Gupta
Jesse F. Abrams
David Armstrong McKay
Xuemei Bai
Kristi L. Ebi
Paola Fezzigna
Giuliana Gentile
Lauren Gifford
Syezlin Hasan
Lisa Jacobson
Aljoscha Karg
Steven Lade
Tim Lenton
Diana Liverman
Awaz Mohamed
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
David Obura
Johan Rockström
Ben Stewart-Koster
Detlef van Vuuren
Peter Verburg
Raimon C. Ylla-Català
Caroline Zimm
author_sort Joyeeta Gupta
collection DOAJ
description The planetary boundary framework proposes ‘safe’ boundaries, but these boundaries are not necessarily ‘just’. Hence, we ask: How has the Earth Commission defined just boundaries building on the concept of minimizing significant harm and how many people are currently exposed to harm above the safe and just threshold? We document the work of the Earth Commission to address these questions using our Earth System Justice framework. We conclude that: (a) from a justice perspective, nine criteria need to be considered when defining just boundaries; (b) the proportions of populations exposed to harm from exceeding safe and just boundaries today range from 14 to 85 % for the five domains studied (climate, biosphere, water, nutrients, aerosols); and (c) argue that the absolute upper limit for significant harm is possibly harm to 1 % of the population, which although not stringent enough to leave no one behind, would require radical transformations, given the populations currently already above the threshold.
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series Earth System Governance
spelling doaj-art-baddf12d5edc482991aad4e05d1699722025-08-24T05:14:08ZengElsevierEarth System Governance2589-81162025-08-012510026310.1016/j.esg.2025.100263Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth CommissionJoyeeta Gupta0Jesse F. Abrams1David Armstrong McKay2Xuemei Bai3Kristi L. Ebi4Paola Fezzigna5Giuliana Gentile6Lauren Gifford7Syezlin Hasan8Lisa Jacobson9Aljoscha Karg10Steven Lade11Tim Lenton12Diana Liverman13Awaz Mohamed14Nebojsa Nakicenovic15David Obura16Johan Rockström17Ben Stewart-Koster18Detlef van Vuuren19Peter Verburg20Raimon C. Ylla-Català21Caroline Zimm22Amsterdam Institute for Social Science Research, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; IHE-Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, the NetherlandsGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Georesilience Analytics, Leatherhead, UKFenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, AustraliaCenter for Health & the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USAAmsterdam Institute for Social Science Research, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the NetherlandsAmsterdam Institute for Social Science Research, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the NetherlandsSchool of Geography, Development and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USAAustralian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, AustraliaFuture Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, SwedenAmsterdam Institute for Social Science Research, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Corresponding author. GPIO Governance and Inclusive Development, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 166, 1018 WV Amsterdam, the NetherlandsStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Future Earth Secretariat, Stockholm, SwedenGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKSchool of Geography, Development and Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USAFunctional Forest Ecology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, GermanyInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaCoastal Oceans Research and Development in the Indian Ocean East Africa, Mombasa, KenyaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyAustralian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, AustraliaCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the NetherlandsSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the NetherlandsAmsterdam Institute for Social Science Research, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the NetherlandsInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, AustriaThe planetary boundary framework proposes ‘safe’ boundaries, but these boundaries are not necessarily ‘just’. Hence, we ask: How has the Earth Commission defined just boundaries building on the concept of minimizing significant harm and how many people are currently exposed to harm above the safe and just threshold? We document the work of the Earth Commission to address these questions using our Earth System Justice framework. We conclude that: (a) from a justice perspective, nine criteria need to be considered when defining just boundaries; (b) the proportions of populations exposed to harm from exceeding safe and just boundaries today range from 14 to 85 % for the five domains studied (climate, biosphere, water, nutrients, aerosols); and (c) argue that the absolute upper limit for significant harm is possibly harm to 1 % of the population, which although not stringent enough to leave no one behind, would require radical transformations, given the populations currently already above the threshold.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811625000291No significant harmPlanetary boundariesEarth system justiceAccess and allocationEarth system boundariesJust boundaries
spellingShingle Joyeeta Gupta
Jesse F. Abrams
David Armstrong McKay
Xuemei Bai
Kristi L. Ebi
Paola Fezzigna
Giuliana Gentile
Lauren Gifford
Syezlin Hasan
Lisa Jacobson
Aljoscha Karg
Steven Lade
Tim Lenton
Diana Liverman
Awaz Mohamed
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
David Obura
Johan Rockström
Ben Stewart-Koster
Detlef van Vuuren
Peter Verburg
Raimon C. Ylla-Català
Caroline Zimm
Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission
Earth System Governance
No significant harm
Planetary boundaries
Earth system justice
Access and allocation
Earth system boundaries
Just boundaries
title Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission
title_full Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission
title_fullStr Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission
title_full_unstemmed Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission
title_short Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission
title_sort thresholds of significant harm at global level the journey of the earth commission
topic No significant harm
Planetary boundaries
Earth system justice
Access and allocation
Earth system boundaries
Just boundaries
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811625000291
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