Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign
Abstract Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum funct...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Earth and Space Science |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003278 |
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| author | Tomasz Kur Justyna Śliwińska‐Bronowicz Malgorzata Wińska Henryk Dobslaw Jolanta Nastula Aleksander Partyka Santiago Belda Christian Bizouard Dale Boggs Sara Bruni Lue Chen Mike Chin Sujata Dhar Robert Dill PengShuo Duan Jose M. Ferrandiz Junyang Gou Richard Gross Sonia Guessoum Songtao Han Robert Heinkelmann ChengLi Huang Christopher Irrgang Jacek Kudrys Jia Li Marcin Ligas Lintao Liu Weitao Lu Volker Mayer Wei Miao Maciej Michalczak Sadegh Modiri Michiel Otten Todd Ratcliff Shrishail Raut Jan Saynisch‐Wagner Matthias Schartner Erik Schoenemann Harald Schuh M. Kiani Shahvandi Benedikt Soja Xiaoqing Su Daniela Thaller Maik Thomas Guocheng Wang Yuanwei Wu CanCan Xu Xueqing Xu Xinyu Yang Xin Zhao Zhijin Zhou |
| author_facet | Tomasz Kur Justyna Śliwińska‐Bronowicz Malgorzata Wińska Henryk Dobslaw Jolanta Nastula Aleksander Partyka Santiago Belda Christian Bizouard Dale Boggs Sara Bruni Lue Chen Mike Chin Sujata Dhar Robert Dill PengShuo Duan Jose M. Ferrandiz Junyang Gou Richard Gross Sonia Guessoum Songtao Han Robert Heinkelmann ChengLi Huang Christopher Irrgang Jacek Kudrys Jia Li Marcin Ligas Lintao Liu Weitao Lu Volker Mayer Wei Miao Maciej Michalczak Sadegh Modiri Michiel Otten Todd Ratcliff Shrishail Raut Jan Saynisch‐Wagner Matthias Schartner Erik Schoenemann Harald Schuh M. Kiani Shahvandi Benedikt Soja Xiaoqing Su Daniela Thaller Maik Thomas Guocheng Wang Yuanwei Wu CanCan Xu Xueqing Xu Xinyu Yang Xin Zhao Zhijin Zhou |
| author_sort | Tomasz Kur |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum functions. Considering these developments and recently emerged new methodologies, the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) was pursued in 2021–2022. The campaign was led by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk in cooperation with Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. This paper provides the analysis and evaluation of the polar motion predictions submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC with the prediction horizons between 10 and 30 days. Our analysis shows that predictions are highly reliable with only a few occasional discrepancies identified in the submitted files. We demonstrate the accuracy of EOP predictions by (a) calculating the mean absolute error relative to polar motion observations from September 2021 through December 2022 and (b) assessing the stability of the predictions in time. The analysis shows unequal results for the x and y components of polar motion (PMx and PMy, respectively). Predictions of PMy are usually more accurate and have a smaller spread across all submitted files when compared to PMx. We present an analysis of similarity between the participants to indicate what methods and input data give comparable output. We also prepared the ranking of prediction methods for polar motion summarizing the achievements of the campaign. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b9eb19f49d7e4d8ca2371ebd2d792d98 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2333-5084 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth and Space Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-b9eb19f49d7e4d8ca2371ebd2d792d982024-12-14T03:25:53ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Earth and Space Science2333-50842024-11-011111n/an/a10.1029/2023EA003278Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison CampaignTomasz Kur0Justyna Śliwińska‐Bronowicz1Malgorzata Wińska2Henryk Dobslaw3Jolanta Nastula4Aleksander Partyka5Santiago Belda6Christian Bizouard7Dale Boggs8Sara Bruni9Lue Chen10Mike Chin11Sujata Dhar12Robert Dill13PengShuo Duan14Jose M. Ferrandiz15Junyang Gou16Richard Gross17Sonia Guessoum18Songtao Han19Robert Heinkelmann20ChengLi Huang21Christopher Irrgang22Jacek Kudrys23Jia Li24Marcin Ligas25Lintao Liu26Weitao Lu27Volker Mayer28Wei Miao29Maciej Michalczak30Sadegh Modiri31Michiel Otten32Todd Ratcliff33Shrishail Raut34Jan Saynisch‐Wagner35Matthias Schartner36Erik Schoenemann37Harald Schuh38M. Kiani Shahvandi39Benedikt Soja40Xiaoqing Su41Daniela Thaller42Maik Thomas43Guocheng Wang44Yuanwei Wu45CanCan Xu46Xueqing Xu47Xinyu Yang48Xin Zhao49Zhijin Zhou50Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformatics Wrocław PolandCentrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk Warsaw PolandFaculty of Civil Engineering Warsaw University of Technology Warsaw PolandDepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyCentrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk Warsaw PolandCentrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk Warsaw PolandUAVAC University of Alicante Alicante SpainObservatoire de Paris SYRTE Paris FranceJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USAPosiTim UG at ESA/ESOC Darmstadt GermanyNational Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Aerospace Flight Dynamic Beijing Aerospace Control Center Beijing ChinaJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USADepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyDepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyCAS Key Laboratory of Planetary Sciences Shanghai Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai ChinaUAVAC University of Alicante Alicante SpainETH Zurich Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry Zurich SwitzerlandJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USAUAVAC University of Alicante Alicante SpainNational Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Aerospace Flight Dynamic Beijing Aerospace Control Center Beijing ChinaDepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyCAS Key Laboratory of Planetary Sciences Shanghai Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai ChinaDepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyAGH University of Krakow Krakow PolandXi'an Surveying and Mapping Center Xi'an ChinaAGH University of Krakow Krakow PolandInnovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan ChinaNational Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Aerospace Flight Dynamic Beijing Aerospace Control Center Beijing ChinaLSE Space GmbH at ESA/ESOC Darmstadt GermanyShanghai Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai ChinaAGH University of Krakow Krakow PolandFederal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy BKG Frankfurt am Main GermanyPosiTim UG at ESA/ESOC Darmstadt GermanyJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USADepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyDepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyETH Zurich Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry Zurich SwitzerlandESA/ESOC Darmstadt GermanyDepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyETH Zurich Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry Zurich SwitzerlandETH Zurich Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry Zurich SwitzerlandShandong University of Technology Shandong ChinaFederal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy BKG Frankfurt am Main GermanyDepartment 1: Geodesy Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ Potsdam GermanyInnovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan ChinaNational Time Service Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences Shaanxi ChinaSchool of Astronomy and Space Science University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Planetary Sciences Shanghai Astronomical Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Shanghai ChinaNational Time Service Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences Shaanxi ChinaNational Time Service Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences Shaanxi ChinaNational Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Aerospace Flight Dynamic Beijing Aerospace Control Center Beijing ChinaAbstract Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum functions. Considering these developments and recently emerged new methodologies, the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) was pursued in 2021–2022. The campaign was led by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk in cooperation with Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. This paper provides the analysis and evaluation of the polar motion predictions submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC with the prediction horizons between 10 and 30 days. Our analysis shows that predictions are highly reliable with only a few occasional discrepancies identified in the submitted files. We demonstrate the accuracy of EOP predictions by (a) calculating the mean absolute error relative to polar motion observations from September 2021 through December 2022 and (b) assessing the stability of the predictions in time. The analysis shows unequal results for the x and y components of polar motion (PMx and PMy, respectively). Predictions of PMy are usually more accurate and have a smaller spread across all submitted files when compared to PMx. We present an analysis of similarity between the participants to indicate what methods and input data give comparable output. We also prepared the ranking of prediction methods for polar motion summarizing the achievements of the campaign.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003278Earth orientation parameterspredictionspolar motioneffective angular momentumEarth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign |
| spellingShingle | Tomasz Kur Justyna Śliwińska‐Bronowicz Malgorzata Wińska Henryk Dobslaw Jolanta Nastula Aleksander Partyka Santiago Belda Christian Bizouard Dale Boggs Sara Bruni Lue Chen Mike Chin Sujata Dhar Robert Dill PengShuo Duan Jose M. Ferrandiz Junyang Gou Richard Gross Sonia Guessoum Songtao Han Robert Heinkelmann ChengLi Huang Christopher Irrgang Jacek Kudrys Jia Li Marcin Ligas Lintao Liu Weitao Lu Volker Mayer Wei Miao Maciej Michalczak Sadegh Modiri Michiel Otten Todd Ratcliff Shrishail Raut Jan Saynisch‐Wagner Matthias Schartner Erik Schoenemann Harald Schuh M. Kiani Shahvandi Benedikt Soja Xiaoqing Su Daniela Thaller Maik Thomas Guocheng Wang Yuanwei Wu CanCan Xu Xueqing Xu Xinyu Yang Xin Zhao Zhijin Zhou Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign Earth and Space Science Earth orientation parameters predictions polar motion effective angular momentum Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign |
| title | Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign |
| title_full | Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign |
| title_fullStr | Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign |
| title_short | Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign |
| title_sort | prospects of predicting the polar motion based on the results of the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign |
| topic | Earth orientation parameters predictions polar motion effective angular momentum Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003278 |
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