Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in Iberia due to 0.5 °C additional anthropogenic warming
This study investigates the effects of incremental global warming, specifically the transition from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C, on drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Our findings confirm a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts in the IP due to anthropogenic climate cha...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad975d |
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| author | Ana Russo Virgílio A Bento Andreia F S Ribeiro Daniela C A Lima João A M Careto Pedro M M Soares Renata Libonati Ricardo M Trigo Célia M Gouveia |
| author_facet | Ana Russo Virgílio A Bento Andreia F S Ribeiro Daniela C A Lima João A M Careto Pedro M M Soares Renata Libonati Ricardo M Trigo Célia M Gouveia |
| author_sort | Ana Russo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates the effects of incremental global warming, specifically the transition from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C, on drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Our findings confirm a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts in the IP due to anthropogenic climate change. We highlight the importance of temperature in drought representation and underscore the urgent need to limit global warming below 1.5 °C, in line with international climate policies. The analysis reveals that the exacerbation of drought conditions is more pronounced under higher emission scenarios, particularly RCP8.5, emphasizing the critical role of emission reduction in climate change mitigation. Furthermore, a substantial increase in affected land area and population exposure to drought is observed, especially under the higher-emission scenario. Climate change emerges as the primary factor contributing to increased drought exposure, with emission reduction efforts offering potential mitigation. To overcome limitations associated with model uncertainties, a multi-model multi-variable ensemble approach was employed to enhance the regional specificity of the findings. This provides valuable insights for local climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Results suggest that mitigating anthropogenic warming by 0.5 °C to achieve the 1.5 °C warmer climate rather than 2.0 °C may provide benefits for future drought risks and impacts in the IP and underscore the urgency of implementing stringent climate policies. By offering a comprehensive assessment of drought conditions and population exposure, this study informs decision-making and climate resilience strategies, emphasizing the need for immediate action to mitigate adverse impacts on ecosystems and human populations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b428bda154494937837c71c08c8967e0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-b428bda154494937837c71c08c8967e02025-01-07T13:49:38ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120101407510.1088/1748-9326/ad975dIncreased population exposure to extreme droughts in Iberia due to 0.5 °C additional anthropogenic warmingAna Russo0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0042-2441Virgílio A Bento1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9574-3090Andreia F S Ribeiro2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0481-0337Daniela C A Lima3João A M Careto4Pedro M M Soares5Renata Libonati6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7570-1993Ricardo M Trigo7Célia M Gouveia8IDL-Instituto Dom Luíz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa , Lisboa 1749-016, Portugal; CEF - Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon , Lisbon, PortugalIDL-Instituto Dom Luíz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa , Lisboa 1749-016, PortugalDepartment of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research , UFZ, Leipzig, GermanyIDL-Instituto Dom Luíz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa , Lisboa 1749-016, PortugalIDL-Instituto Dom Luíz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa , Lisboa 1749-016, PortugalIDL-Instituto Dom Luíz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa , Lisboa 1749-016, PortugalIDL-Instituto Dom Luíz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa , Lisboa 1749-016, Portugal; Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro , Rio de Janeiro 21941-919, Brazil; CEF - Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon , Lisbon, PortugalIDL-Instituto Dom Luíz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa , Lisboa 1749-016, Portugal; Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro , Rio de Janeiro 21941-919, BrazilIDL-Instituto Dom Luíz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa , Lisboa 1749-016, Portugal; Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera , Rua C do Aeroporto, Lisboa 1749-077, PortugalThis study investigates the effects of incremental global warming, specifically the transition from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C, on drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Our findings confirm a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts in the IP due to anthropogenic climate change. We highlight the importance of temperature in drought representation and underscore the urgent need to limit global warming below 1.5 °C, in line with international climate policies. The analysis reveals that the exacerbation of drought conditions is more pronounced under higher emission scenarios, particularly RCP8.5, emphasizing the critical role of emission reduction in climate change mitigation. Furthermore, a substantial increase in affected land area and population exposure to drought is observed, especially under the higher-emission scenario. Climate change emerges as the primary factor contributing to increased drought exposure, with emission reduction efforts offering potential mitigation. To overcome limitations associated with model uncertainties, a multi-model multi-variable ensemble approach was employed to enhance the regional specificity of the findings. This provides valuable insights for local climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Results suggest that mitigating anthropogenic warming by 0.5 °C to achieve the 1.5 °C warmer climate rather than 2.0 °C may provide benefits for future drought risks and impacts in the IP and underscore the urgency of implementing stringent climate policies. By offering a comprehensive assessment of drought conditions and population exposure, this study informs decision-making and climate resilience strategies, emphasizing the need for immediate action to mitigate adverse impacts on ecosystems and human populations.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad975dmitigationEURO-CORDEXIberian Peninsulaglobal warming levelsmulti-model ensemble |
| spellingShingle | Ana Russo Virgílio A Bento Andreia F S Ribeiro Daniela C A Lima João A M Careto Pedro M M Soares Renata Libonati Ricardo M Trigo Célia M Gouveia Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in Iberia due to 0.5 °C additional anthropogenic warming Environmental Research Letters mitigation EURO-CORDEX Iberian Peninsula global warming levels multi-model ensemble |
| title | Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in Iberia due to 0.5 °C additional anthropogenic warming |
| title_full | Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in Iberia due to 0.5 °C additional anthropogenic warming |
| title_fullStr | Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in Iberia due to 0.5 °C additional anthropogenic warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in Iberia due to 0.5 °C additional anthropogenic warming |
| title_short | Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in Iberia due to 0.5 °C additional anthropogenic warming |
| title_sort | increased population exposure to extreme droughts in iberia due to 0 5 °c additional anthropogenic warming |
| topic | mitigation EURO-CORDEX Iberian Peninsula global warming levels multi-model ensemble |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad975d |
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