Understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the European energy system
Summary: Short-term planning of myopic decision-makers jeopardizes the long-term energy transition, especially since constraints in deploying clean energy technologies further inhibit their rapid scale-up. Here, we show that the European energy transition followed myopic decision-making in the past...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | iScience |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258900422402594X |
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| author | Jacob Mannhardt Paolo Gabrielli Giovanni Sansavini |
| author_facet | Jacob Mannhardt Paolo Gabrielli Giovanni Sansavini |
| author_sort | Jacob Mannhardt |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Short-term planning of myopic decision-makers jeopardizes the long-term energy transition, especially since constraints in deploying clean energy technologies further inhibit their rapid scale-up. Here, we show that the European energy transition followed myopic decision-making in the past and investigate how policy-based tools can secure the energy transition against myopic planning. Short-term decision-making in the European energy transition may fail to comply with climate goals and lead to substantial over-capacities. Carbon prices can only effectively internalize long-term climate goals if they account for constrained technology deployment, increasing to around 400 EUR/tCO2 in 2050. Idealized carbon prices, conversely, fail to incentivize the decarbonization of those sectors that stand at the beginning of their transition, such as renewable heating or carbon sequestration. Our exploration of myopic decision-making contributes to the understanding of the inhibiting barriers and bridges the gap between short-term decision-making and the long-term energy transition. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b2c811aad03b498baafca21b616baf89 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2589-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | iScience |
| spelling | doaj-art-b2c811aad03b498baafca21b616baf892024-12-22T05:29:07ZengElsevieriScience2589-00422024-12-012712111369Understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the European energy systemJacob Mannhardt0Paolo Gabrielli1Giovanni Sansavini2Institute of Energy and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute of Energy and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, SwitzerlandInstitute of Energy and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; Corresponding authorSummary: Short-term planning of myopic decision-makers jeopardizes the long-term energy transition, especially since constraints in deploying clean energy technologies further inhibit their rapid scale-up. Here, we show that the European energy transition followed myopic decision-making in the past and investigate how policy-based tools can secure the energy transition against myopic planning. Short-term decision-making in the European energy transition may fail to comply with climate goals and lead to substantial over-capacities. Carbon prices can only effectively internalize long-term climate goals if they account for constrained technology deployment, increasing to around 400 EUR/tCO2 in 2050. Idealized carbon prices, conversely, fail to incentivize the decarbonization of those sectors that stand at the beginning of their transition, such as renewable heating or carbon sequestration. Our exploration of myopic decision-making contributes to the understanding of the inhibiting barriers and bridges the gap between short-term decision-making and the long-term energy transition.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258900422402594XEngineeringEnergy sustainabilityEnergy systems |
| spellingShingle | Jacob Mannhardt Paolo Gabrielli Giovanni Sansavini Understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the European energy system iScience Engineering Energy sustainability Energy systems |
| title | Understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the European energy system |
| title_full | Understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the European energy system |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the European energy system |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the European energy system |
| title_short | Understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the European energy system |
| title_sort | understanding the vicious cycle of myopic foresight and constrained technology deployment in transforming the european energy system |
| topic | Engineering Energy sustainability Energy systems |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258900422402594X |
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