Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat, 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036

Abstract Objective To evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to diets high in red meat from 1990 to 2021, project trends to 2036, and stratify findings by age, sex, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Methods Data on CRC burden associated with diet h...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Huijun Lei, Miaomiao Chen, Haoyu Qu, Zuomei He, Hui Zhong, Liang Li, Mengzhou Xie
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2025-08-01
Series:BMC Public Health
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23712-1
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849234181789319168
author Huijun Lei
Miaomiao Chen
Haoyu Qu
Zuomei He
Hui Zhong
Liang Li
Mengzhou Xie
author_facet Huijun Lei
Miaomiao Chen
Haoyu Qu
Zuomei He
Hui Zhong
Liang Li
Mengzhou Xie
author_sort Huijun Lei
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Objective To evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to diets high in red meat from 1990 to 2021, project trends to 2036, and stratify findings by age, sex, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Methods Data on CRC burden associated with diet high in red meat were extracted from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx). Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to assess temporal trends. Inequality slope and concentration indices quantified health disparities, while decomposition analyses identified drivers of burden changes. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected future trends through 2036. Results From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized mortality rates (EAPC = − 0.84%, 95% CI: − 0.87 to − 0.81) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (EAPC = − 0.85, 95% CI: − 0.88 to − 0.81) for CRC attributable to high red meat intake declined globally. The reduction in DALYs was driven by decreasing years of life lost (YLLs; EAPC = − 0.9, 95% CI: − 0.93 to − 0.86), contrasting with rising years lived with disability (YLDs; EAPC = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.41–0.48). Males and older populations bore a disproportionate burden. Global population growth accounted for 99.73% of increased deaths, 112.77% of DALYs, 62.42% of YLDs, and 116.5% of YLLs. Inequality slope indices for mortality remained stable, while concentration indices for DALYs declined (deaths: 0.31 [95% CI: 0.28–0.34] to 0.26 [0.23–0.29]). Projections indicate declining age-standardized mortality and DALY rates by 2036, but absolute deaths, DALYs, and YLLs are expected to rise. Conclusion Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute burden of CRC associated with diet high in red meat persists, with marked disparities across regions and demographics. Population growth remains a critical driver, underscoring the need for targeted dietary interventions and equity-focused policies.
format Article
id doaj-art-aff3b92f162240a6a8be1c11071cc5e2
institution Kabale University
issn 1471-2458
language English
publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher BMC
record_format Article
series BMC Public Health
spelling doaj-art-aff3b92f162240a6a8be1c11071cc5e22025-08-20T04:03:13ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582025-08-0125112010.1186/s12889-025-23712-1Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat, 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036Huijun Lei0Miaomiao Chen1Haoyu Qu2Zuomei He3Hui Zhong4Liang Li5Mengzhou Xie6School of Chinese Medicine, Hunan University of Chinese MedicineSchool of Dental Medicine, Hunan University of Chinese MedicineSchool of Information Science and Engineering, Hunan University of Chinese MedicineHunan Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine Affiliated HospitalSchool of Dental Medicine, Hunan University of Chinese MedicineSchool of Chinese Medicine, Hunan University of Chinese MedicineSchool of Chinese Medicine, Hunan University of Chinese MedicineAbstract Objective To evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to diets high in red meat from 1990 to 2021, project trends to 2036, and stratify findings by age, sex, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Methods Data on CRC burden associated with diet high in red meat were extracted from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx). Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to assess temporal trends. Inequality slope and concentration indices quantified health disparities, while decomposition analyses identified drivers of burden changes. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected future trends through 2036. Results From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized mortality rates (EAPC = − 0.84%, 95% CI: − 0.87 to − 0.81) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (EAPC = − 0.85, 95% CI: − 0.88 to − 0.81) for CRC attributable to high red meat intake declined globally. The reduction in DALYs was driven by decreasing years of life lost (YLLs; EAPC = − 0.9, 95% CI: − 0.93 to − 0.86), contrasting with rising years lived with disability (YLDs; EAPC = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.41–0.48). Males and older populations bore a disproportionate burden. Global population growth accounted for 99.73% of increased deaths, 112.77% of DALYs, 62.42% of YLDs, and 116.5% of YLLs. Inequality slope indices for mortality remained stable, while concentration indices for DALYs declined (deaths: 0.31 [95% CI: 0.28–0.34] to 0.26 [0.23–0.29]). Projections indicate declining age-standardized mortality and DALY rates by 2036, but absolute deaths, DALYs, and YLLs are expected to rise. Conclusion Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute burden of CRC associated with diet high in red meat persists, with marked disparities across regions and demographics. Population growth remains a critical driver, underscoring the need for targeted dietary interventions and equity-focused policies.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23712-1Colorectal cancerRed meatGlobal burden of diseaseDisability-adjusted life yearsHealth inequalityDecomposition
spellingShingle Huijun Lei
Miaomiao Chen
Haoyu Qu
Zuomei He
Hui Zhong
Liang Li
Mengzhou Xie
Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat, 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036
BMC Public Health
Colorectal cancer
Red meat
Global burden of disease
Disability-adjusted life years
Health inequality
Decomposition
title Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat, 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036
title_full Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat, 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036
title_fullStr Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat, 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036
title_full_unstemmed Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat, 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036
title_short Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat, 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036
title_sort global regional and national burden of colorectal cancer associated with diet high in red meat 1990 to 2021 an analysis for the global burden of disease study and prediction to 2036
topic Colorectal cancer
Red meat
Global burden of disease
Disability-adjusted life years
Health inequality
Decomposition
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23712-1
work_keys_str_mv AT huijunlei globalregionalandnationalburdenofcolorectalcancerassociatedwithdiethighinredmeat1990to2021ananalysisfortheglobalburdenofdiseasestudyandpredictionto2036
AT miaomiaochen globalregionalandnationalburdenofcolorectalcancerassociatedwithdiethighinredmeat1990to2021ananalysisfortheglobalburdenofdiseasestudyandpredictionto2036
AT haoyuqu globalregionalandnationalburdenofcolorectalcancerassociatedwithdiethighinredmeat1990to2021ananalysisfortheglobalburdenofdiseasestudyandpredictionto2036
AT zuomeihe globalregionalandnationalburdenofcolorectalcancerassociatedwithdiethighinredmeat1990to2021ananalysisfortheglobalburdenofdiseasestudyandpredictionto2036
AT huizhong globalregionalandnationalburdenofcolorectalcancerassociatedwithdiethighinredmeat1990to2021ananalysisfortheglobalburdenofdiseasestudyandpredictionto2036
AT liangli globalregionalandnationalburdenofcolorectalcancerassociatedwithdiethighinredmeat1990to2021ananalysisfortheglobalburdenofdiseasestudyandpredictionto2036
AT mengzhouxie globalregionalandnationalburdenofcolorectalcancerassociatedwithdiethighinredmeat1990to2021ananalysisfortheglobalburdenofdiseasestudyandpredictionto2036