Impact of inter-city interactions on disease scaling
Abstract Inter-city interactions are critical for the transmission of infectious diseases, yet their effects on the scaling of disease cases remain largely underexplored. Here, we use the commuting network as a proxy for inter-city interactions, integrating it with a general scaling framework to des...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84252-z |
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| author | Nathalia A. Loureiro Camilo R. Neto Jack Sutton Matjaž Perc Haroldo V. Ribeiro |
| author_facet | Nathalia A. Loureiro Camilo R. Neto Jack Sutton Matjaž Perc Haroldo V. Ribeiro |
| author_sort | Nathalia A. Loureiro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Inter-city interactions are critical for the transmission of infectious diseases, yet their effects on the scaling of disease cases remain largely underexplored. Here, we use the commuting network as a proxy for inter-city interactions, integrating it with a general scaling framework to describe the incidence of seven infectious diseases across Brazilian cities as a function of population size and the number of commuters. Our models significantly outperform traditional urban scaling approaches, revealing that the relationship between disease cases and a combination of population and commuters varies across diseases and is influenced by both factors. Although most cities exhibit a less-than-proportional increase in disease cases with changes in population and commuters, more-than-proportional responses are also observed across all diseases. Notably, in some small and isolated cities, proportional rises in population and commuters correlate with a reduction in disease cases. These findings suggest that such towns may experience improved health outcomes and socioeconomic conditions as they grow and become more connected. However, as growth and connectivity continue, these gains diminish, eventually giving way to challenges typical of larger urban areas – such as socioeconomic inequality and overcrowding – that facilitate the spread of infectious diseases. Our study underscores the interconnected roles of population size and commuter dynamics in disease incidence while highlighting that changes in population size exert a greater influence on disease cases than variations in the number of commuters. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-af89fce6944945a1ae0b08129dae8a12 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-af89fce6944945a1ae0b08129dae8a122025-01-05T12:21:20ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115111210.1038/s41598-024-84252-zImpact of inter-city interactions on disease scalingNathalia A. Loureiro0Camilo R. Neto1Jack Sutton2Matjaž Perc3Haroldo V. Ribeiro4Complex Systems Modeling Program, School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São PauloComplex Systems Modeling Program, School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São PauloCollege of Science and Engineering, University of DerbyFaculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of MariborDepartamento de Física, Universidade Estadual de MaringáAbstract Inter-city interactions are critical for the transmission of infectious diseases, yet their effects on the scaling of disease cases remain largely underexplored. Here, we use the commuting network as a proxy for inter-city interactions, integrating it with a general scaling framework to describe the incidence of seven infectious diseases across Brazilian cities as a function of population size and the number of commuters. Our models significantly outperform traditional urban scaling approaches, revealing that the relationship between disease cases and a combination of population and commuters varies across diseases and is influenced by both factors. Although most cities exhibit a less-than-proportional increase in disease cases with changes in population and commuters, more-than-proportional responses are also observed across all diseases. Notably, in some small and isolated cities, proportional rises in population and commuters correlate with a reduction in disease cases. These findings suggest that such towns may experience improved health outcomes and socioeconomic conditions as they grow and become more connected. However, as growth and connectivity continue, these gains diminish, eventually giving way to challenges typical of larger urban areas – such as socioeconomic inequality and overcrowding – that facilitate the spread of infectious diseases. Our study underscores the interconnected roles of population size and commuter dynamics in disease incidence while highlighting that changes in population size exert a greater influence on disease cases than variations in the number of commuters.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84252-z |
| spellingShingle | Nathalia A. Loureiro Camilo R. Neto Jack Sutton Matjaž Perc Haroldo V. Ribeiro Impact of inter-city interactions on disease scaling Scientific Reports |
| title | Impact of inter-city interactions on disease scaling |
| title_full | Impact of inter-city interactions on disease scaling |
| title_fullStr | Impact of inter-city interactions on disease scaling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of inter-city interactions on disease scaling |
| title_short | Impact of inter-city interactions on disease scaling |
| title_sort | impact of inter city interactions on disease scaling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84252-z |
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