Solar Flare X‐Ray Impacts on Long Subionospheric VLF Paths
Abstract Solar flares increase the electron number concentration in the daytime ionosphere, potentially affecting radiowave propagation over several frequency ranges. In this study, we use ionospheric observations to determine both peak magnitudes and time variations of solar flare X‐rays without us...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002820 |
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| author | Samuel R. G. Belcher Mark A. Clilverd Craig J. Rodger Sophie Cook Neil R. Thomson James B. Brundell Tero Raita |
| author_facet | Samuel R. G. Belcher Mark A. Clilverd Craig J. Rodger Sophie Cook Neil R. Thomson James B. Brundell Tero Raita |
| author_sort | Samuel R. G. Belcher |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Solar flares increase the electron number concentration in the daytime ionosphere, potentially affecting radiowave propagation over several frequency ranges. In this study, we use ionospheric observations to determine both peak magnitudes and time variations of solar flare X‐rays without using the direct measurement from the flare. Ground‐based observations of VLF transmitter phase perturbations are compared against measured X‐ray flux levels during solar flares. Flare fluxes derived here from VLF phases on a west‐east subionospheric path are compared with those from a previously analyzed north‐south path. Using a wider selection of solar flares, including M‐class flares for the first time, the best‐fit equations and root mean square (RMS) errors are computed with improved standard deviation (SD) uncertainty estimates for the peak fluxes. Good agreement is found between peak long X‐ray wavelength fluxes (XL, 0.1–0.8 nm) derived for M‐class and X‐class flares and those measured by the GOES satellites. Linear regression analysis on the two paths shows the uncertainties increase in inverse proportion to the path length. Investigations were made with a limited set of “operational” parameters that could be used to derive XL fluxes. No increases in RMS or SD uncertainty levels were introduced by the removal of satellite‐based regression parameters such as the XL flux level measured before the flare onset. As such, these techniques support the idea of nowcasting M‐class and X‐class flares from entirely ground‐based measurements. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-af83fde8fc1e423fa349d9e3ce9fcccb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-af83fde8fc1e423fa349d9e3ce9fcccb2025-01-14T16:27:04ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902021-11-011911n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002820Solar Flare X‐Ray Impacts on Long Subionospheric VLF PathsSamuel R. G. Belcher0Mark A. Clilverd1Craig J. Rodger2Sophie Cook3Neil R. Thomson4James B. Brundell5Tero Raita6Department of Physics University of Otago Dunedin New ZealandBritish Antarctic Survey (UKRI‐NERC) Cambridge UKDepartment of Physics University of Otago Dunedin New ZealandDepartment of Physics University of Otago Dunedin New ZealandDepartment of Physics University of Otago Dunedin New ZealandDepartment of Physics University of Otago Dunedin New ZealandSodankylä Geophysical Observatory University of Oulu Sodankylä FinlandAbstract Solar flares increase the electron number concentration in the daytime ionosphere, potentially affecting radiowave propagation over several frequency ranges. In this study, we use ionospheric observations to determine both peak magnitudes and time variations of solar flare X‐rays without using the direct measurement from the flare. Ground‐based observations of VLF transmitter phase perturbations are compared against measured X‐ray flux levels during solar flares. Flare fluxes derived here from VLF phases on a west‐east subionospheric path are compared with those from a previously analyzed north‐south path. Using a wider selection of solar flares, including M‐class flares for the first time, the best‐fit equations and root mean square (RMS) errors are computed with improved standard deviation (SD) uncertainty estimates for the peak fluxes. Good agreement is found between peak long X‐ray wavelength fluxes (XL, 0.1–0.8 nm) derived for M‐class and X‐class flares and those measured by the GOES satellites. Linear regression analysis on the two paths shows the uncertainties increase in inverse proportion to the path length. Investigations were made with a limited set of “operational” parameters that could be used to derive XL fluxes. No increases in RMS or SD uncertainty levels were introduced by the removal of satellite‐based regression parameters such as the XL flux level measured before the flare onset. As such, these techniques support the idea of nowcasting M‐class and X‐class flares from entirely ground‐based measurements.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002820VLF propagationsolar flaresregression analysisX‐ray flaresnowcastingICAO |
| spellingShingle | Samuel R. G. Belcher Mark A. Clilverd Craig J. Rodger Sophie Cook Neil R. Thomson James B. Brundell Tero Raita Solar Flare X‐Ray Impacts on Long Subionospheric VLF Paths Space Weather VLF propagation solar flares regression analysis X‐ray flares nowcasting ICAO |
| title | Solar Flare X‐Ray Impacts on Long Subionospheric VLF Paths |
| title_full | Solar Flare X‐Ray Impacts on Long Subionospheric VLF Paths |
| title_fullStr | Solar Flare X‐Ray Impacts on Long Subionospheric VLF Paths |
| title_full_unstemmed | Solar Flare X‐Ray Impacts on Long Subionospheric VLF Paths |
| title_short | Solar Flare X‐Ray Impacts on Long Subionospheric VLF Paths |
| title_sort | solar flare x ray impacts on long subionospheric vlf paths |
| topic | VLF propagation solar flares regression analysis X‐ray flares nowcasting ICAO |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002820 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT samuelrgbelcher solarflarexrayimpactsonlongsubionosphericvlfpaths AT markaclilverd solarflarexrayimpactsonlongsubionosphericvlfpaths AT craigjrodger solarflarexrayimpactsonlongsubionosphericvlfpaths AT sophiecook solarflarexrayimpactsonlongsubionosphericvlfpaths AT neilrthomson solarflarexrayimpactsonlongsubionosphericvlfpaths AT jamesbbrundell solarflarexrayimpactsonlongsubionosphericvlfpaths AT teroraita solarflarexrayimpactsonlongsubionosphericvlfpaths |