An Analysis of Variance of the Pantheon+ Dataset: Systematics in the Covariance Matrix?
We investigate the statistics of the available Pantheon+ dataset. Noticing that the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mi>χ</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></semantics&g...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Universe |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2218-1997/10/12/439 |
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| Summary: | We investigate the statistics of the available Pantheon+ dataset. Noticing that the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mi>χ</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> value for the best-fit <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Λ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>CDM model to the real data is small, we quantify how significant its smallness is by calculating the distribution of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mi>χ</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> values for the best-fit <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Λ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>CDM model fit to mock Pantheon+-like datasets, using the provided covariance matrix. We further investigate the distribution of the residuals of the Pantheon+ dataset with respect to the best-fit <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Λ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>CDM model, and notice that they scatter less than would be expected from the covariance matrix but find no significant kurtosis. These results point to the conclusion that the Pantheon+ covariance matrix is over-estimated. One simple interpretation of these results is a ∼7% overestimation of errors on SN distance moduli in Pantheon+ data. When the covariance matrix is reduced by subtracting an intrinsic scatter term from the diagonal terms of the covariance matrix, the best-fit <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mi>χ</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> for the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Λ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>CDM model achieves a normal value of 1580 and no deviation from <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Λ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>CDM is detected. We further quantify how consistent the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>Λ</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula>CDM model is with respect to the modified data with the subtracted covariance matrix using model-independent reconstruction techniques such as the iterative smoothing method. We find that the standard model is consistent with the data. There are a number of potential explanations for this smallness of the <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mi>χ</mi><mn>2</mn></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula>, such as a Malmquist bias at high redshift, or accounting for systematic uncertainties by adding them to the covariance matrix, thus approximating systematic uncertainties as statistical ones. |
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| ISSN: | 2218-1997 |