Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models
<p>Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Pro...
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Copernicus Publications
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/8751/2024/gmd-17-8751-2024.pdf |
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| author | F. Li X. Song S. P. Harrison J. R. Marlon Z. Lin L. R. Leung J. Schwinger V. Marécal S. Wang D. S. Ward X. Dong H. Lee L. Nieradzik S. S. Rabin R. Séférian |
| author_facet | F. Li X. Song S. P. Harrison J. R. Marlon Z. Lin L. R. Leung J. Schwinger V. Marécal S. Wang D. S. Ward X. Dong H. Lee L. Nieradzik S. S. Rabin R. Séférian |
| author_sort | F. Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel<span id="page8752"/> wetness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a post-processing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-aed4f9ac384544e7b38b2bdc0e15cff2 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
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| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj-art-aed4f9ac384544e7b38b2bdc0e15cff22024-12-11T07:49:24ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032024-12-01178751877110.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system modelsF. Li0X. Song1S. P. Harrison2J. R. Marlon3Z. Lin4L. R. Leung5J. Schwinger6V. Marécal7S. Wang8D. S. Ward9X. Dong10H. Lee11L. Nieradzik12S. S. Rabin13R. Séférian14International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, ChinaInternational Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, ChinaDepartment of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AB, UKSchool of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USAState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, ChinaAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, USANORCE Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, 5838, NorwayCentre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, 31000, FranceSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, 60176, SwedenKaren Clark & Company, Boston, MA 02116, USAInternational Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, ChinaDepartment of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7419, NorwayDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, 22362, SwedenClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USACentre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, 31000, France<p>Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel<span id="page8752"/> wetness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a post-processing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.</p>https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/8751/2024/gmd-17-8751-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | F. Li X. Song S. P. Harrison J. R. Marlon Z. Lin L. R. Leung J. Schwinger V. Marécal S. Wang D. S. Ward X. Dong H. Lee L. Nieradzik S. S. Rabin R. Séférian Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models |
| title_full | Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models |
| title_short | Evaluation of global fire simulations in CMIP6 Earth system models |
| title_sort | evaluation of global fire simulations in cmip6 earth system models |
| url | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/8751/2024/gmd-17-8751-2024.pdf |
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