Nomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure: a cohort study

Abstract Background: Exposure to high altitude increases the risk of myocardial ischemia (MI) and subsequent cardiovascular death. Nomogram is a graphical regression model, but there are no reports on using nomogram to predict myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure. Our goal was to establi...

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Main Authors: Yu Chen, Yan-Kun Shi, Shi-Zhong Fu, Zhuo-Dong Li, Sheng-Yu Yang, Xiao-Ying Zhou, Zhu Yan, Chun-Ping Bao, Xin-Ming Xu, Xin Zhang, Li-Xia Yang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2024-11-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-79735-y
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author Yu Chen
Yan-Kun Shi
Shi-Zhong Fu
Zhuo-Dong Li
Sheng-Yu Yang
Xiao-Ying Zhou
Zhu Yan
Chun-Ping Bao
Xin-Ming Xu
Xin Zhang
Li-Xia Yang
author_facet Yu Chen
Yan-Kun Shi
Shi-Zhong Fu
Zhuo-Dong Li
Sheng-Yu Yang
Xiao-Ying Zhou
Zhu Yan
Chun-Ping Bao
Xin-Ming Xu
Xin Zhang
Li-Xia Yang
author_sort Yu Chen
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background: Exposure to high altitude increases the risk of myocardial ischemia (MI) and subsequent cardiovascular death. Nomogram is a graphical regression model, but there are no reports on using nomogram to predict myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure. Our goal was to establish prediction models based on pre-high-altitude physical exposure examination data and identify key risk factors. Methods: We prospectively enrolled a total of 2,855 healthy individuals who underwent physical examination at the 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force and were scheduled to undergo high-altitude (3000–3500 m) training within six months. These participants were randomly divided into a training cohort (75%) and a validation cohort (25%). In the training set, single-factor analysis of variance and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis were used to select variables, and two nomograms were established based on clinical features (CF) and clinical features + blood tests (CF + BT), respectively. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the concordance index (C-index), and calibration curves. Results: The C-index for the prediction models CF and CF + BT were 0.652 and 0.804, respectively. In the training cohort, the AUC for prediction models CF and CF + BT were 0.61 and 0.80, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC for prediction models CF and CF + BT were 0.61 and 0.81, respectively. Conclusion: We have successfully established two nomogram models to predict myocardial ischemia under high-altitude exposure and identified some risk factors.
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spelling doaj-art-ad5db6fc6ba547d285e8c60705fbe3922024-11-24T12:24:06ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-11-0114111310.1038/s41598-024-79735-yNomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure: a cohort studyYu Chen0Yan-Kun Shi1Shi-Zhong Fu2Zhuo-Dong Li3Sheng-Yu Yang4Xiao-Ying Zhou5Zhu Yan6Chun-Ping Bao7Xin-Ming Xu8Xin Zhang9Li-Xia Yang10Department of Cardiology, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Cardiology, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Infectious Diseases, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Thoracocardiac Surgery, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Urology, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of pediatrics, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Cardiology, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Cardiology, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Quality Control, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLADepartment of Cardiology, 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force, PLAAbstract Background: Exposure to high altitude increases the risk of myocardial ischemia (MI) and subsequent cardiovascular death. Nomogram is a graphical regression model, but there are no reports on using nomogram to predict myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure. Our goal was to establish prediction models based on pre-high-altitude physical exposure examination data and identify key risk factors. Methods: We prospectively enrolled a total of 2,855 healthy individuals who underwent physical examination at the 920th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force and were scheduled to undergo high-altitude (3000–3500 m) training within six months. These participants were randomly divided into a training cohort (75%) and a validation cohort (25%). In the training set, single-factor analysis of variance and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis were used to select variables, and two nomograms were established based on clinical features (CF) and clinical features + blood tests (CF + BT), respectively. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the concordance index (C-index), and calibration curves. Results: The C-index for the prediction models CF and CF + BT were 0.652 and 0.804, respectively. In the training cohort, the AUC for prediction models CF and CF + BT were 0.61 and 0.80, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC for prediction models CF and CF + BT were 0.61 and 0.81, respectively. Conclusion: We have successfully established two nomogram models to predict myocardial ischemia under high-altitude exposure and identified some risk factors.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-79735-yHigh altitudeMyocardial ischemiaCoronary microvascular diseaseNomogramPrediction model.
spellingShingle Yu Chen
Yan-Kun Shi
Shi-Zhong Fu
Zhuo-Dong Li
Sheng-Yu Yang
Xiao-Ying Zhou
Zhu Yan
Chun-Ping Bao
Xin-Ming Xu
Xin Zhang
Li-Xia Yang
Nomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure: a cohort study
Scientific Reports
High altitude
Myocardial ischemia
Coronary microvascular disease
Nomogram
Prediction model.
title Nomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure: a cohort study
title_full Nomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure: a cohort study
title_fullStr Nomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure: a cohort study
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure: a cohort study
title_short Nomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure: a cohort study
title_sort nomogram models for predicting myocardial ischemia under high altitude exposure a cohort study
topic High altitude
Myocardial ischemia
Coronary microvascular disease
Nomogram
Prediction model.
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-79735-y
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