The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia
Abstract Recent years have seen unprecedented shifts in global natural gas trade, precipitated in large part by Russia’s war on Ukraine. How this regional conflict impacts the future of natural gas markets is subject to three interconnected factors: (i) Russia’s strategy to regain markets for its ga...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55697-7 |
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| _version_ | 1841559233707900928 |
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| author | Steve Pye Michael Bradshaw James Price Dan Zhang Caroline Kuzemko Jack Sharples Dan Welsby Paul E. Dodds |
| author_facet | Steve Pye Michael Bradshaw James Price Dan Zhang Caroline Kuzemko Jack Sharples Dan Welsby Paul E. Dodds |
| author_sort | Steve Pye |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Recent years have seen unprecedented shifts in global natural gas trade, precipitated in large part by Russia’s war on Ukraine. How this regional conflict impacts the future of natural gas markets is subject to three interconnected factors: (i) Russia’s strategy to regain markets for its gas exports; (ii) Europe’s push towards increased liquified natural gas (LNG) and the pace of its low carbon transition; and (iii) China’s gas demand and how it balances its climate and energy security objectives. A scenario modelling approach is applied to explore the potential implications of this geopolitical crisis. We find that Russia struggles to regain pre-crisis gas export levels, with the degrees of its success contingent on China’s strategy. Compared to 2020, Russia’s gas exports are down by 31–47% in 2040 where new markets are limited and by 13–38% under a pivot to Asia strategy. We demonstrate how integrating energy geopolitics and modelling enhances our understanding of energy futures. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ab93b2b8ad5d4daab0bb57f303a2dc16 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-ab93b2b8ad5d4daab0bb57f303a2dc162025-01-05T12:40:00ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-0116111110.1038/s41467-024-55697-7The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to AsiaSteve Pye0Michael Bradshaw1James Price2Dan Zhang3Caroline Kuzemko4Jack Sharples5Dan Welsby6Paul E. Dodds7UCL Energy Institute, University College LondonWarwick Business School, University of WarwickUCL Energy Institute, University College LondonUCL Energy Institute, University College LondonDepartment of Politics and International Studies, University of WarwickOxford Institute for Energy StudiesUCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College LondonUCL Energy Institute, University College LondonAbstract Recent years have seen unprecedented shifts in global natural gas trade, precipitated in large part by Russia’s war on Ukraine. How this regional conflict impacts the future of natural gas markets is subject to three interconnected factors: (i) Russia’s strategy to regain markets for its gas exports; (ii) Europe’s push towards increased liquified natural gas (LNG) and the pace of its low carbon transition; and (iii) China’s gas demand and how it balances its climate and energy security objectives. A scenario modelling approach is applied to explore the potential implications of this geopolitical crisis. We find that Russia struggles to regain pre-crisis gas export levels, with the degrees of its success contingent on China’s strategy. Compared to 2020, Russia’s gas exports are down by 31–47% in 2040 where new markets are limited and by 13–38% under a pivot to Asia strategy. We demonstrate how integrating energy geopolitics and modelling enhances our understanding of energy futures.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55697-7 |
| spellingShingle | Steve Pye Michael Bradshaw James Price Dan Zhang Caroline Kuzemko Jack Sharples Dan Welsby Paul E. Dodds The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia Nature Communications |
| title | The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia |
| title_full | The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia |
| title_fullStr | The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia |
| title_short | The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia |
| title_sort | global implications of a russian gas pivot to asia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55697-7 |
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