Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory
Abstract China’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 relies on the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, with forestation targets designed to enhance carbon removal. However, the exact sequestration potential of these initiatives remains uncertain due to differing accounting c...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2 |
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| author | Yue He Shilong Piao Philippe Ciais Hao Xu Thomas Gasser |
| author_facet | Yue He Shilong Piao Philippe Ciais Hao Xu Thomas Gasser |
| author_sort | Yue He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract China’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 relies on the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, with forestation targets designed to enhance carbon removal. However, the exact sequestration potential of these initiatives remains uncertain due to differing accounting conventions between national inventories and scientific assessments. Here, we reconcile both estimates and reassess LULUCF carbon fluxes up to 2100, using a spatially explicit bookkeeping model, state-of-the-art historical data, and national forestation targets. We simulate a carbon sink of −0.24 ± 0.03 Gt C yr−1 over 1994–2018 from past forestation efforts, aligned well with the national inventory. Should the official forestation targets be followed and extended, this could reach −0.35 ± 0.04 Gt C yr−1 in 2060, offsetting 43 ± 4% of anticipated residual fossil CO2 emissions. Our findings confirm the key role of LULUCF in carbon sequestration, but its potential will decline if forestation efforts cease, highlighting the necessity for emission reductions in other sectors to achieve carbon neutrality. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a99ae6b77cb24603aba8a4344200468c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-a99ae6b77cb24603aba8a4344200468c2024-12-01T12:34:47ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-11-0115111010.1038/s41467-024-54846-2Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventoryYue He0Shilong Piao1Philippe Ciais2Hao Xu3Thomas Gasser4Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityInstitute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), CEA CNRS UVSQInstitute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking UniversityInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Abstract China’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 relies on the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, with forestation targets designed to enhance carbon removal. However, the exact sequestration potential of these initiatives remains uncertain due to differing accounting conventions between national inventories and scientific assessments. Here, we reconcile both estimates and reassess LULUCF carbon fluxes up to 2100, using a spatially explicit bookkeeping model, state-of-the-art historical data, and national forestation targets. We simulate a carbon sink of −0.24 ± 0.03 Gt C yr−1 over 1994–2018 from past forestation efforts, aligned well with the national inventory. Should the official forestation targets be followed and extended, this could reach −0.35 ± 0.04 Gt C yr−1 in 2060, offsetting 43 ± 4% of anticipated residual fossil CO2 emissions. Our findings confirm the key role of LULUCF in carbon sequestration, but its potential will decline if forestation efforts cease, highlighting the necessity for emission reductions in other sectors to achieve carbon neutrality.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2 |
| spellingShingle | Yue He Shilong Piao Philippe Ciais Hao Xu Thomas Gasser Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory Nature Communications |
| title | Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory |
| title_full | Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory |
| title_fullStr | Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory |
| title_short | Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory |
| title_sort | future land carbon removals in china consistent with national inventory |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2 |
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