Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia
This study aims to estimate the responses of Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), present and future climate changes in Anatolia. For this purpose, the temporal and spatial distributions of these conifer species were modeled, based on global climat...
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Istanbul University Press
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Coğrafya Dergisi |
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| Online Access: | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/24F205EBC0874BC7BD3BE23A83F69DE7 |
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| author | Derya Evrim Koç Hasan Nüzhet Dalfes Meral Avcı |
| author_facet | Derya Evrim Koç Hasan Nüzhet Dalfes Meral Avcı |
| author_sort | Derya Evrim Koç |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aims to estimate the responses of Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), present and future climate changes in Anatolia. For this purpose, the temporal and spatial distributions of these conifer species were modeled, based on global climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the temporal and spatial distributions of the studied species are predicted and back-projected using fossil pollen data, occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic variables collected from the WorldClim database. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was applied to these variables, resulting in the identification of 8 variables for the species distribution model. Past and future climate information is based on CCSM4 and RCP 8.5 scenario was assumed for future projections. Furthermore, both MaxEnt 3.4.1 and ArcGIS 10.5 were utilized to develop the models. At every instance, the area under curve (AUC) test values that determine the accuracy of the projections is >0,90. Among the 8 bioclimatic variables, those that contributed the most to the models were as follows: Cedrus libani, BIO14 (%32,3), BIO8 (%23,7), BIO15 (%19,2); Abies cilicica BIO8 (%30,5), BIO14 (%24,1), BIO15 (%19,5); Juniperus drupacea, BIO15 (%38,1), BIO12 (%30,9), and BIO4 (%13,1). Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea found suitable habitats in the south of Anatolia during the LGM, according to the results. From the Holocene onward, their distribution areas narrowed and reached the present-day borders. Future predictions indicate that some of the ecological conditions of the species will be lost, and their areas will narrow. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a71bb3e1c0624fb48c33ae1cdf12a8c4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1305-2128 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Istanbul University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Coğrafya Dergisi |
| spelling | doaj-art-a71bb3e1c0624fb48c33ae1cdf12a8c42025-08-20T03:52:18ZengIstanbul University PressCoğrafya Dergisi1305-21282022-07-0144819510.26650/JGEOG2022-974433123456Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in AnatoliaDerya Evrim Koç0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5542-6533Hasan Nüzhet Dalfes1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2522-8381Meral Avcı2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4367-3021Sakarya Üniversitesi, Sakarya, Türkiyeİstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, İstanbul, Türkiyeİstanbul Üniversitesi, İstanbul, TürkiyeThis study aims to estimate the responses of Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), present and future climate changes in Anatolia. For this purpose, the temporal and spatial distributions of these conifer species were modeled, based on global climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the temporal and spatial distributions of the studied species are predicted and back-projected using fossil pollen data, occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic variables collected from the WorldClim database. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was applied to these variables, resulting in the identification of 8 variables for the species distribution model. Past and future climate information is based on CCSM4 and RCP 8.5 scenario was assumed for future projections. Furthermore, both MaxEnt 3.4.1 and ArcGIS 10.5 were utilized to develop the models. At every instance, the area under curve (AUC) test values that determine the accuracy of the projections is >0,90. Among the 8 bioclimatic variables, those that contributed the most to the models were as follows: Cedrus libani, BIO14 (%32,3), BIO8 (%23,7), BIO15 (%19,2); Abies cilicica BIO8 (%30,5), BIO14 (%24,1), BIO15 (%19,5); Juniperus drupacea, BIO15 (%38,1), BIO12 (%30,9), and BIO4 (%13,1). Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea found suitable habitats in the south of Anatolia during the LGM, according to the results. From the Holocene onward, their distribution areas narrowed and reached the present-day borders. Future predictions indicate that some of the ecological conditions of the species will be lost, and their areas will narrow.https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/24F205EBC0874BC7BD3BE23A83F69DE7climate changespecies distribution modelcedrus libaniabies cilicicajuniperus drupaceaturkey |
| spellingShingle | Derya Evrim Koç Hasan Nüzhet Dalfes Meral Avcı Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia Coğrafya Dergisi climate change species distribution model cedrus libani abies cilicica juniperus drupacea turkey |
| title | Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia |
| title_full | Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia |
| title_fullStr | Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia |
| title_short | Changes in the Distribution Areas of Conifer Trees in Anatolia |
| title_sort | changes in the distribution areas of conifer trees in anatolia |
| topic | climate change species distribution model cedrus libani abies cilicica juniperus drupacea turkey |
| url | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/24F205EBC0874BC7BD3BE23A83F69DE7 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT deryaevrimkoc changesinthedistributionareasofconifertreesinanatolia AT hasannuzhetdalfes changesinthedistributionareasofconifertreesinanatolia AT meralavcı changesinthedistributionareasofconifertreesinanatolia |