Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in China
Research on the potential distribution of invasive plants and their biological control agents under climate change is critical for informing strategies in invasive species management. The rust fungus Puccinia spegazzinii shows significant potential as a biological control agent for the invasive weed...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Biological Control |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049964425000647 |
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| author | Wei Zhang Qing Huang Yingzhi Kuang David Roy Clements Gaofeng Xu Fudou Zhang Shicai Shen Lun Yin Michael Denny Day |
| author_facet | Wei Zhang Qing Huang Yingzhi Kuang David Roy Clements Gaofeng Xu Fudou Zhang Shicai Shen Lun Yin Michael Denny Day |
| author_sort | Wei Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Research on the potential distribution of invasive plants and their biological control agents under climate change is critical for informing strategies in invasive species management. The rust fungus Puccinia spegazzinii shows significant potential as a biological control agent for the invasive weed Mikania micrantha. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model was used to simulate the distribution of M. micrantha and P. spegazzinii under current and future climate scenarios. The models achieved excellent prediction performance, with M. micrantha and P. spegazzinii having area under the curve values of 0.921 and 0.978 respectively, and true skill statistics values of 0.886 and 0.902 respectively. Precipitation is the primary factor influencing the distributions of M. micrantha, while P. spegazzinii is determined by both temperature and precipitation. The suitable areas for the two species are concentrated in southern China, with M. micrantha exhibiting broader adaptability compared to P. spegazzinii. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas for M. micrantha in China will expand northward, with a maximum projected growth rate of 84.6 % in the 2070 s, whereas P. spegazzinii exhibits a contracting trend (with a projected reduction of 40.8 % in the 2050 s). Under the current climate scenario, the overlapping suitable areas between the two species account for 25.2 % of the total suitable area for M. micrantha and 100 % of that for P. spegazzinii and both remain relatively stable under future climate scenarios. This work can provide guidance for the application of biological control, and serves as a valuable reference for developing early warning and management response strategies for invasive species in China. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a547966bb7b04b57ade8f23c1aa924d3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1049-9644 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Biological Control |
| spelling | doaj-art-a547966bb7b04b57ade8f23c1aa924d32025-08-20T03:42:29ZengElsevierBiological Control1049-96442025-05-0120410575410.1016/j.biocontrol.2025.105754Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in ChinaWei Zhang0Qing Huang1Yingzhi Kuang2David Roy Clements3Gaofeng Xu4Fudou Zhang5Shicai Shen6Lun Yin7Michael Denny Day8School of Ethnology and Sociology, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, ChinaSchool of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, ChinaSchool of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, ChinaDepartment of Biology, Trinity Western University, Langley, BC V2Y1Y1, CanadaKey Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650224, China; Yunnan Lancang-Mekong Agricultural Bio-Security International Science and Technology Cooperation Joint Research Center, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650224, ChinaKey Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650224, China; Yunnan Lancang-Mekong Agricultural Bio-Security International Science and Technology Cooperation Joint Research Center, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650224, ChinaKey Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650224, China; Yunnan Lancang-Mekong Agricultural Bio-Security International Science and Technology Cooperation Joint Research Center, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650224, China; Corresponding author at: Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, Agricultural Environment and Resource Research Institute, Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kunming 650224, China.School of Marxism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China; Southwest Ecological Civilization Research Center, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Kunming 650224, China; Corresponding author at: School of Marxism, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China.Queensland Department of Primary Industries, GPO Box 267, Brisbane, Qld 4001, AustraliaResearch on the potential distribution of invasive plants and their biological control agents under climate change is critical for informing strategies in invasive species management. The rust fungus Puccinia spegazzinii shows significant potential as a biological control agent for the invasive weed Mikania micrantha. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model was used to simulate the distribution of M. micrantha and P. spegazzinii under current and future climate scenarios. The models achieved excellent prediction performance, with M. micrantha and P. spegazzinii having area under the curve values of 0.921 and 0.978 respectively, and true skill statistics values of 0.886 and 0.902 respectively. Precipitation is the primary factor influencing the distributions of M. micrantha, while P. spegazzinii is determined by both temperature and precipitation. The suitable areas for the two species are concentrated in southern China, with M. micrantha exhibiting broader adaptability compared to P. spegazzinii. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas for M. micrantha in China will expand northward, with a maximum projected growth rate of 84.6 % in the 2070 s, whereas P. spegazzinii exhibits a contracting trend (with a projected reduction of 40.8 % in the 2050 s). Under the current climate scenario, the overlapping suitable areas between the two species account for 25.2 % of the total suitable area for M. micrantha and 100 % of that for P. spegazzinii and both remain relatively stable under future climate scenarios. This work can provide guidance for the application of biological control, and serves as a valuable reference for developing early warning and management response strategies for invasive species in China.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049964425000647MaxEntPuccinia spegazziniiMikania micranthaPotential distribution predictionClimate change scenariosChina |
| spellingShingle | Wei Zhang Qing Huang Yingzhi Kuang David Roy Clements Gaofeng Xu Fudou Zhang Shicai Shen Lun Yin Michael Denny Day Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in China Biological Control MaxEnt Puccinia spegazzinii Mikania micrantha Potential distribution prediction Climate change scenarios China |
| title | Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_full | Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_short | Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in China |
| title_sort | predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed mikania micrantha and its biological control agent puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in china |
| topic | MaxEnt Puccinia spegazzinii Mikania micrantha Potential distribution prediction Climate change scenarios China |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049964425000647 |
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