Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021
BackgroundChronic hepatitis B and cirrhosis pose significant global health threats. Few studies have explored the disease burden and mortality trend of cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus infection among adolescents and young adults (AYAs, aged 15–39 years). This study aimed to assess the disease...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| author | Quanwei He Quanwei He Quanwei He Xiujuan Chang Ran Xu Ran Xu Wei Han Wei Han Sihao Wang Sihao Wang Shujuan Gong Shujuan Gong Jiagan Huang Jiangtao Liu Rugang Zhang Yongping Yang Yongping Yang Yongping Yang |
| author_facet | Quanwei He Quanwei He Quanwei He Xiujuan Chang Ran Xu Ran Xu Wei Han Wei Han Sihao Wang Sihao Wang Shujuan Gong Shujuan Gong Jiagan Huang Jiangtao Liu Rugang Zhang Yongping Yang Yongping Yang Yongping Yang |
| author_sort | Quanwei He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundChronic hepatitis B and cirrhosis pose significant global health threats. Few studies have explored the disease burden and mortality trend of cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus infection among adolescents and young adults (AYAs, aged 15–39 years). This study aimed to assess the disease burden and trends.MethodsPublicly available data were obtained from the 2021 GBD database. The rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years were calculated at the global, regional, and national levels. Temporal trends were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the global incidence rate of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis decreased from 111.33 (95% uncertainty interval: 89.18 to 134.98) to 67.75 (54.06 to 82.71) per 100,000 with an average annual percentage change of −1.58 (95% confidence interval: −1.66 to −1.51, p < 0.001). However, between 1990 and 2021, the incidence numbers in the 30–34 and 35–39 age groups increased by 23.75 and 21.24%, respectively. The number of deaths in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) areas increased by 79.51 and 20.62%, respectively. Moreover, it is predicted that the numbers of incidences and deaths will continue to rise in areas with low SDI. At the regional level, Central Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest incidence and mortality rates. In 2021, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo had the highest incidence rates, whereas Kiribati and Cambodia had the highest mortality rates.ConclusionThe overall burden of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among AYAs has decreased over the past three decades. Nevertheless, there was a slight increase in the incidence number among individuals aged 30–39 years. The substantial burden and predicted rise in the numbers of incidences and deaths in low SDI areas underscore the need for sustained and targeted public health interventions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-a415682f50404414ad0ca3a9f89ee700 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-a415682f50404414ad0ca3a9f89ee7002025-01-08T06:11:55ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652025-01-011210.3389/fpubh.2024.14943881494388Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021Quanwei He0Quanwei He1Quanwei He2Xiujuan Chang3Ran Xu4Ran Xu5Wei Han6Wei Han7Sihao Wang8Sihao Wang9Shujuan Gong10Shujuan Gong11Jiagan Huang12Jiangtao Liu13Rugang Zhang14Yongping Yang15Yongping Yang16Yongping Yang17Department of Gastroenterology, Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Sanya, ChinaMedical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Hepatology, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Hepatology, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, ChinaMedical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Hepatology, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, ChinaMedical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Hepatology, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, ChinaMedical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Hepatology, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, ChinaMedical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Hepatology, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Hepatology, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Sanya, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Sanya, ChinaDepartment of Gastroenterology, Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Sanya, ChinaMedical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Hepatology, The Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, ChinaBackgroundChronic hepatitis B and cirrhosis pose significant global health threats. Few studies have explored the disease burden and mortality trend of cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus infection among adolescents and young adults (AYAs, aged 15–39 years). This study aimed to assess the disease burden and trends.MethodsPublicly available data were obtained from the 2021 GBD database. The rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years were calculated at the global, regional, and national levels. Temporal trends were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the global incidence rate of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis decreased from 111.33 (95% uncertainty interval: 89.18 to 134.98) to 67.75 (54.06 to 82.71) per 100,000 with an average annual percentage change of −1.58 (95% confidence interval: −1.66 to −1.51, p < 0.001). However, between 1990 and 2021, the incidence numbers in the 30–34 and 35–39 age groups increased by 23.75 and 21.24%, respectively. The number of deaths in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) areas increased by 79.51 and 20.62%, respectively. Moreover, it is predicted that the numbers of incidences and deaths will continue to rise in areas with low SDI. At the regional level, Central Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest incidence and mortality rates. In 2021, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo had the highest incidence rates, whereas Kiribati and Cambodia had the highest mortality rates.ConclusionThe overall burden of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among AYAs has decreased over the past three decades. Nevertheless, there was a slight increase in the incidence number among individuals aged 30–39 years. The substantial burden and predicted rise in the numbers of incidences and deaths in low SDI areas underscore the need for sustained and targeted public health interventions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1494388/fullhepatitis Bcirrhosisadolescentsyoung adultsincidencemortality |
| spellingShingle | Quanwei He Quanwei He Quanwei He Xiujuan Chang Ran Xu Ran Xu Wei Han Wei Han Sihao Wang Sihao Wang Shujuan Gong Shujuan Gong Jiagan Huang Jiangtao Liu Rugang Zhang Yongping Yang Yongping Yang Yongping Yang Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 Frontiers in Public Health hepatitis B cirrhosis adolescents young adults incidence mortality |
| title | Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_full | Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_short | Global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis B-related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035: an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| title_sort | global temporal trends and projections of hepatitis b related cirrhosis among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2035 an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | hepatitis B cirrhosis adolescents young adults incidence mortality |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1494388/full |
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