The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm
Abstract Ionospheric scintillations caused by equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) can seriously affect various high technology systems based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals at equatorial and low latitudes. A reliable prediction of ionospheric scintillation occurrence is critical to...
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Wiley
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002884 |
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| author | Xiukuan Zhao Guozhu Li Haiyong Xie Lianhuan Hu Wenjie Sun Sipeng Yang Yi Li Baiqi Ning Hisao Takahashi |
| author_facet | Xiukuan Zhao Guozhu Li Haiyong Xie Lianhuan Hu Wenjie Sun Sipeng Yang Yi Li Baiqi Ning Hisao Takahashi |
| author_sort | Xiukuan Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Ionospheric scintillations caused by equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) can seriously affect various high technology systems based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals at equatorial and low latitudes. A reliable prediction of ionospheric scintillation occurrence is critical to relieve the effect. Using the long‐term ground‐based GNSS receiver and ionosonde data collected in the Brazilian longitude sector during 2012–2020, an ionospheric strong scintillation prediction model based on the gradient boosting algorithms extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and CatBoost is created and tested. It is for the first time that the XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost are utilized to predict the day‐to‐day occurrence of regional ionospheric scintillation during post‐sunset hours. The relative importance of different parameters affecting EPB/scintillation occurrence for building the prediction model is examined. A comparison of daily scintillation occurrence from the modeled and observed results during 2014 (solar maximum) and 2020 (solar minimum) shows that the gradient boosting algorithms are effective for predicting strong scintillations over low latitude, with a prediction accuracy of ∼85%. The results suggest that the trained model with input of total electron content, equatorial F layer peak height and critical frequency before sunset could be well employed to predict the occurrence/nonoccurrence of intense scintillations over low latitude after sunset on a daily basis. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9fd5d38e30a64793831afcace2f8c79a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-9fd5d38e30a64793831afcace2f8c79a2025-01-14T16:27:22ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902021-12-011912n/an/a10.1029/2021SW002884The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting AlgorithmXiukuan Zhao0Guozhu Li1Haiyong Xie2Lianhuan Hu3Wenjie Sun4Sipeng Yang5Yi Li6Baiqi Ning7Hisao Takahashi8Mohe Observatory of Geophysics Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaGeophysics Center National Earth System Science Data Center Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaGeophysics Center National Earth System Science Data Center Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaDivisão de Aeronomia Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais São José dos Campos BrazilAbstract Ionospheric scintillations caused by equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) can seriously affect various high technology systems based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals at equatorial and low latitudes. A reliable prediction of ionospheric scintillation occurrence is critical to relieve the effect. Using the long‐term ground‐based GNSS receiver and ionosonde data collected in the Brazilian longitude sector during 2012–2020, an ionospheric strong scintillation prediction model based on the gradient boosting algorithms extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and CatBoost is created and tested. It is for the first time that the XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost are utilized to predict the day‐to‐day occurrence of regional ionospheric scintillation during post‐sunset hours. The relative importance of different parameters affecting EPB/scintillation occurrence for building the prediction model is examined. A comparison of daily scintillation occurrence from the modeled and observed results during 2014 (solar maximum) and 2020 (solar minimum) shows that the gradient boosting algorithms are effective for predicting strong scintillations over low latitude, with a prediction accuracy of ∼85%. The results suggest that the trained model with input of total electron content, equatorial F layer peak height and critical frequency before sunset could be well employed to predict the occurrence/nonoccurrence of intense scintillations over low latitude after sunset on a daily basis.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002884ionospheric scintillation predictionGradient boosting algorithmEquatorial F layer height |
| spellingShingle | Xiukuan Zhao Guozhu Li Haiyong Xie Lianhuan Hu Wenjie Sun Sipeng Yang Yi Li Baiqi Ning Hisao Takahashi The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm Space Weather ionospheric scintillation prediction Gradient boosting algorithm Equatorial F layer height |
| title | The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm |
| title_full | The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm |
| title_fullStr | The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm |
| title_short | The Prediction of Day‐to‐Day Occurrence of Low Latitude Ionospheric Strong Scintillation Using Gradient Boosting Algorithm |
| title_sort | prediction of day to day occurrence of low latitude ionospheric strong scintillation using gradient boosting algorithm |
| topic | ionospheric scintillation prediction Gradient boosting algorithm Equatorial F layer height |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002884 |
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