An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern Mexico
Northwestern Mexico has a desert climate with high solar resources. Clear skies and low humidity during most of the year favor their use. In winter, the arrival of cold air masses from the polar latitudes cause instability and abrupt changes in atmospheric variables, increasing the error of short-te...
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MDPI AG
2024-10-01
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| author | Jose Ernesto López-Velázquez Nicolás Velázquez-Limón Saúl Islas-Pereda David Enrique Flores-Jiménez Néstor Santillan-Soto Juan Ríos-Arriola |
| author_facet | Jose Ernesto López-Velázquez Nicolás Velázquez-Limón Saúl Islas-Pereda David Enrique Flores-Jiménez Néstor Santillan-Soto Juan Ríos-Arriola |
| author_sort | Jose Ernesto López-Velázquez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Northwestern Mexico has a desert climate with high solar resources. Clear skies and low humidity during most of the year favor their use. In winter, the arrival of cold air masses from the polar latitudes cause instability and abrupt changes in atmospheric variables, increasing the error of short-term forecasts. This work focuses on the evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for predicting the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), considering different parameterizations of shortwave and longwave solar radiation during the influence of five cold fronts that affected the desert region of northwestern Mexico. The simulation was carried out under four main shortwave configurations and the results were evaluated with surface measurements and compared with climate information from NASA-POWER. The GHI predicted with the Dudhia parameterization showed an overestimation of the WRF model during most of the analyzed events; the most accurate predictions obtained correlation values between 0.85 and 0.91 and a mean absolute error between 15 and 45 W m<sup>−2</sup>. In periods where intermittent clouds prevailed, the mean error increased by almost 20%. An evaluation of the different proposed configurations shows advantages with the shortwave Dudhia and longwave RRTM parameterizations, providing a useful meteorological tool for predicting short-range variations in the GHI to improve the operability of solar power generation systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9f35c75cf1034e6ebd33c3f9b093541e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-9f35c75cf1034e6ebd33c3f9b093541e2024-11-26T17:50:15ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-10-011511130010.3390/atmos15111300An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern MexicoJose Ernesto López-Velázquez0Nicolás Velázquez-Limón1Saúl Islas-Pereda2David Enrique Flores-Jiménez3Néstor Santillan-Soto4Juan Ríos-Arriola5Laboratorio de Ciencias Atmosféricas Aplicadas, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Mexicali 21280, MexicoCentro de Estudios de las Energías Renovables, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Mexicali 21280, MexicoCentro de Estudios de las Energías Renovables, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Mexicali 21280, MexicoLaboratorio de Ciencias Atmosféricas Aplicadas, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Mexicali 21280, MexicoLaboratorio de Ciencias Atmosféricas Aplicadas, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Mexicali 21280, MexicoCentro de Estudios de las Energías Renovables, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Mexicali 21280, MexicoNorthwestern Mexico has a desert climate with high solar resources. Clear skies and low humidity during most of the year favor their use. In winter, the arrival of cold air masses from the polar latitudes cause instability and abrupt changes in atmospheric variables, increasing the error of short-term forecasts. This work focuses on the evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for predicting the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), considering different parameterizations of shortwave and longwave solar radiation during the influence of five cold fronts that affected the desert region of northwestern Mexico. The simulation was carried out under four main shortwave configurations and the results were evaluated with surface measurements and compared with climate information from NASA-POWER. The GHI predicted with the Dudhia parameterization showed an overestimation of the WRF model during most of the analyzed events; the most accurate predictions obtained correlation values between 0.85 and 0.91 and a mean absolute error between 15 and 45 W m<sup>−2</sup>. In periods where intermittent clouds prevailed, the mean error increased by almost 20%. An evaluation of the different proposed configurations shows advantages with the shortwave Dudhia and longwave RRTM parameterizations, providing a useful meteorological tool for predicting short-range variations in the GHI to improve the operability of solar power generation systems.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1300desert climateWRFcold frontsglobal horizontal irradiationoperational forecastsolar radiation variability |
| spellingShingle | Jose Ernesto López-Velázquez Nicolás Velázquez-Limón Saúl Islas-Pereda David Enrique Flores-Jiménez Néstor Santillan-Soto Juan Ríos-Arriola An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern Mexico Atmosphere desert climate WRF cold fronts global horizontal irradiation operational forecast solar radiation variability |
| title | An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern Mexico |
| title_full | An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern Mexico |
| title_fullStr | An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern Mexico |
| title_short | An Assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Solar Irradiance Forecasting under the Influence of Cold Fronts in a Desert in Northwestern Mexico |
| title_sort | assessment of the weather research and forecasting model for solar irradiance forecasting under the influence of cold fronts in a desert in northwestern mexico |
| topic | desert climate WRF cold fronts global horizontal irradiation operational forecast solar radiation variability |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1300 |
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