Colombian monthly energy inflows predictability
Streamflow forecasting is essential for water resources management in several social and economic strategic sectors, involving space-temporal variability modeling of the hydrological processes and the influence of several climatic phenomena. Furthermore, high water-dependent sectors such as the Col...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidad Nacional de Colombia
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Dyna |
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/114287 |
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| _version_ | 1841525239611129856 |
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| author | Andrés Felipe Hurtado-Montoya Nicolás Alberto Moreno-Reyes |
| author_facet | Andrés Felipe Hurtado-Montoya Nicolás Alberto Moreno-Reyes |
| author_sort | Andrés Felipe Hurtado-Montoya |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Streamflow forecasting is essential for water resources management in several social and economic strategic sectors, involving space-temporal variability modeling of the hydrological processes and the influence of several climatic phenomena. Furthermore, high water-dependent sectors such as the Colombian electricity market, require not only the expected streamflow values but also the occurrence probability or reliability bands of such forecast inflows necessary in robust risk analyses. We propose a mathematical approach for monthly streamflow forecasting in Colombia and quantify its predictability, incorporating climate model outcomes as a time series of macroclimatic indexes and punctual hydro-climatological stations. The methodology integrates parametric and non-parametric models, exogenous variables analysis, and uncertainty estimation through stochastic modeling. This research will contribute to the Colombian hydrology understanding and provide elements for risk analysis, planning, and decision-making in social and economic sectors involved with water resources management.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9e888d9e9975478b8b7763dd0065e677 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0012-7353 2346-2183 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Universidad Nacional de Colombia |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Dyna |
| spelling | doaj-art-9e888d9e9975478b8b7763dd0065e6772025-01-17T17:09:50ZengUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaDyna0012-73532346-21832024-11-019123410.15446/dyna.v91n234.114287Colombian monthly energy inflows predictabilityAndrés Felipe Hurtado-Montoya0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4928-3227Nicolás Alberto Moreno-Reyes1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9371-1615ISAGEN, Medellín, ColombiaUniversidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombia Streamflow forecasting is essential for water resources management in several social and economic strategic sectors, involving space-temporal variability modeling of the hydrological processes and the influence of several climatic phenomena. Furthermore, high water-dependent sectors such as the Colombian electricity market, require not only the expected streamflow values but also the occurrence probability or reliability bands of such forecast inflows necessary in robust risk analyses. We propose a mathematical approach for monthly streamflow forecasting in Colombia and quantify its predictability, incorporating climate model outcomes as a time series of macroclimatic indexes and punctual hydro-climatological stations. The methodology integrates parametric and non-parametric models, exogenous variables analysis, and uncertainty estimation through stochastic modeling. This research will contribute to the Colombian hydrology understanding and provide elements for risk analysis, planning, and decision-making in social and economic sectors involved with water resources management. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/114287streamflow forecastinguncertaintyColombian streamflow’s predictability |
| spellingShingle | Andrés Felipe Hurtado-Montoya Nicolás Alberto Moreno-Reyes Colombian monthly energy inflows predictability Dyna streamflow forecasting uncertainty Colombian streamflow’s predictability |
| title | Colombian monthly energy inflows predictability |
| title_full | Colombian monthly energy inflows predictability |
| title_fullStr | Colombian monthly energy inflows predictability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Colombian monthly energy inflows predictability |
| title_short | Colombian monthly energy inflows predictability |
| title_sort | colombian monthly energy inflows predictability |
| topic | streamflow forecasting uncertainty Colombian streamflow’s predictability |
| url | https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/dyna/article/view/114287 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT andresfelipehurtadomontoya colombianmonthlyenergyinflowspredictability AT nicolasalbertomorenoreyes colombianmonthlyenergyinflowspredictability |