The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing in Peru: an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022
Abstract Objectives Our objective was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru. Methods Utilizing data from the National Demographic and Health Survey of Peru from 2014 to 2022, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis. The proportion of past-year...
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BMC
2025-01-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-024-10407-y |
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| author | Robinson A. Yrene-Cubas Jesus Perez-Castilla Daniel E. Reynaga-Cottle Maria José Bringas David R. Soriano-Moreno Daniel Fernandez-Guzman Jose A. Gonzales-Zamora |
| author_facet | Robinson A. Yrene-Cubas Jesus Perez-Castilla Daniel E. Reynaga-Cottle Maria José Bringas David R. Soriano-Moreno Daniel Fernandez-Guzman Jose A. Gonzales-Zamora |
| author_sort | Robinson A. Yrene-Cubas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Objectives Our objective was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru. Methods Utilizing data from the National Demographic and Health Survey of Peru from 2014 to 2022, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis. The proportion of past-year HIV testing per quarter of each year was considered our unit of analysis. Statistical analysis involved segmented regression with Newey-West standard errors, dividing each year of evaluation into four quarters. Additionally, we applied an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Results We included 211,359 participants aged 15 to 49 years. The proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru showed a mean decrease of 8.33% (95%CI: -10.73% to -5.93%) after the COVID-19 lockdown (from August-2020) compared to the previous period (before March-2020). Prior to lockdown, there was a mean quarterly increase of 0.30% (95%CI: 0.21–0.40%) in testing proportion, while after the lockdown, there was a mean quarterly decrease of -0.24% (95%CI: -0.56–0.09%). HIV testing declined in 23 of the 25 regions, ranging from − 23.7% to -3.0%, except in Amazonas and Cajamarca, where increases of 5.3% and 6.8% were observed. Predictions of counterfactual values without the pandemic using the ARIMA model revealed a percentage drop of -9.20% (95%CI: -13.70 to -4.80) in observed compared to predicted values. Conclusions This study highlights the decrease in proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru following the COVID-19 lockdown, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted interventions to address disparities and ensure equitable access to testing services. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9deafb83e53b427f864f04681b1f4d4f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-9deafb83e53b427f864f04681b1f4d4f2025-01-12T12:09:36ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342025-01-0125111210.1186/s12879-024-10407-yThe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing in Peru: an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022Robinson A. Yrene-Cubas0Jesus Perez-Castilla1Daniel E. Reynaga-Cottle2Maria José Bringas3David R. Soriano-Moreno4Daniel Fernandez-Guzman5Jose A. Gonzales-Zamora6Carrera de Medicina Humana, Universidad Científica del SurEscuela Profesional de Medicina Humana, Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del CuscoCarrera de Medicina Humana, Universidad San Martín de PorresCarrera de Medicina Humana, Universidad San Martín de PorresUnidad de Investigación Clínica y Epidemiológica, Escuela de Medicina, Universidad Peruana UniónCarrera de Medicina Humana, Universidad Científica del SurDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Miller School of Medicine, University of MiamiAbstract Objectives Our objective was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru. Methods Utilizing data from the National Demographic and Health Survey of Peru from 2014 to 2022, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis. The proportion of past-year HIV testing per quarter of each year was considered our unit of analysis. Statistical analysis involved segmented regression with Newey-West standard errors, dividing each year of evaluation into four quarters. Additionally, we applied an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Results We included 211,359 participants aged 15 to 49 years. The proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru showed a mean decrease of 8.33% (95%CI: -10.73% to -5.93%) after the COVID-19 lockdown (from August-2020) compared to the previous period (before March-2020). Prior to lockdown, there was a mean quarterly increase of 0.30% (95%CI: 0.21–0.40%) in testing proportion, while after the lockdown, there was a mean quarterly decrease of -0.24% (95%CI: -0.56–0.09%). HIV testing declined in 23 of the 25 regions, ranging from − 23.7% to -3.0%, except in Amazonas and Cajamarca, where increases of 5.3% and 6.8% were observed. Predictions of counterfactual values without the pandemic using the ARIMA model revealed a percentage drop of -9.20% (95%CI: -13.70 to -4.80) in observed compared to predicted values. Conclusions This study highlights the decrease in proportion of past-year HIV testing in Peru following the COVID-19 lockdown, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted interventions to address disparities and ensure equitable access to testing services.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-024-10407-yHIV testingCOVID-19 impactInterrupted time series analysisSociodemographic disparitiesPeru |
| spellingShingle | Robinson A. Yrene-Cubas Jesus Perez-Castilla Daniel E. Reynaga-Cottle Maria José Bringas David R. Soriano-Moreno Daniel Fernandez-Guzman Jose A. Gonzales-Zamora The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing in Peru: an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022 BMC Infectious Diseases HIV testing COVID-19 impact Interrupted time series analysis Sociodemographic disparities Peru |
| title | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing in Peru: an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022 |
| title_full | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing in Peru: an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022 |
| title_fullStr | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing in Peru: an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing in Peru: an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022 |
| title_short | The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing in Peru: an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022 |
| title_sort | impact of the covid 19 pandemic on hiv testing in peru an interrupted time series analysis from 2014 to 2022 |
| topic | HIV testing COVID-19 impact Interrupted time series analysis Sociodemographic disparities Peru |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-024-10407-y |
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